Académique Documents
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Application 6
Application 7
Séries temporelles
Applications
Abou DIENG
2018
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Question 2
Application 5
Question 3
Application 6
Question 4
Application 7
Question 5
Question 6
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Question 2
Application 5
Question 3
Application 6
Question 4
Application 7
Question 5
Question 6
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Question 2
Application 5
Question 3
Application 6
Question 4
Application 7
Question 5
Question 6
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Question 2
Application 5
Question 3
Application 6
Question 4
Application 7
Question 5
Question 6
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Question 2
Application 5
Question 3
Application 6
Question 4
Application 7
Question 5
Question 6
ρ1 ?
ρ1 ρ1
z}|{ z}|{
γ1 γ
= a1 + a2 1
γ0 γ0
ρ1 = a1 + a2 ρ1
(1 − a2 ) ρ1 = a1
a1
[Par simplification ] ⇒ ρ1 = (1− a2 )
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Question 2
Application 5
Question 3
Application 6
Question 4
Application 7
Question 5
Question 6
ρ2 ?
ρ2 ρ1
z}|{ z}|{
γ2 γ
= a1 1 + a2
γ0 γ0
ρ2 = a1 ρ1 + a2
a21
⇒ ρ2 = + a2
(1 − a2 )
Question 1
Question 2
Application 5
Question 3
Application 6
Question 4
Application 7
Question 5
Question 6
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Question 2
Application 5
Question 3
Application 6
Question 4
Application 7
Question 5
Question 6
Résoudre le système :
( a1
ρ1 = (1− a2 )
(1)
a21
ρ2 = (1− a2 )
+ a2 (2)
Question 1
Question 2
Application 5
Question 3
Application 6
Question 4
Application 7
Question 5
Question 6
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Question 2
Application 5
Question 3
Application 6
Question 4
Application 7
Question 5
Question 6
−0.3357 − 0.21432
a2 = = −0.4
1 − 0.21432
b
1 + 0.3357
a1 = 0.2143 = 0.3
1 − 0.21432
b
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Question 2
Application 5
Question 3
Application 6
Question 4
Application 7
Question 5
Question 6
−0.3357 − 0.21432
a2 = = −0.4
1 − 0.21432
b
1 + 0.3357
a1 = 0.2143 = 0.3
1 − 0.21432
b
d’où :
yt = 0.3yt−1 − 0.4yt−2 + ut
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Question 2
Application 5
Question 3
Application 6
Question 4
Application 7
Question 5
Question 6
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Question 2
Application 5
Question 3
Application 6
Question 4
Application 7
Question 5
Question 6
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Application 5 Question 2
Application 6 Question 3
Application 7 Question 4
Question 5
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Application 5 Question 2
Application 6 Question 3
Application 7 Question 4
Question 5
12
10
urate
6
4 8
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Application 5 Question 2
Application 6 Question 3
Application 7 Question 4
Question 5
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Application 5 Question 2
Application 6 Question 3
Application 7 Question 4
Question 5
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Application 5 Question 2
Application 6 Question 3
Application 7 Question 4
Question 5
i Significativité seuil de 5% ?
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Application 5 Question 2
Application 6 Question 3
Application 7 Question 4
Question 5
i Significativité seuil de 5% ?
t â0 = 3.09 > 1.96 Significatif
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Application 5 Question 2
Application 6 Question 3
Application 7 Question 4
Question 5
i Significativité seuil de 5% ?
t â0 = 3.09 > 1.96 Significatif
t â1 = 28.72 > 1.96 Significatif
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Application 5 Question 2
Application 6 Question 3
Application 7 Question 4
Question 5
i Significativité seuil de 5% ?
t â0 = 3.09 > 1.96 Significatif
t â1 = 28.72 > 1.96 Significatif
t â2 = −11.6 < 1.96 non Significatif
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Application 5 Question 2
Application 6 Question 3
Application 7 Question 4
Question 5
i Significativité seuil de 5% ?
t â0 = 3.09 > 1.96 Significatif
t â1 = 28.72 > 1.96 Significatif
t â2 = −11.6 < 1.96 non Significatif
ii Stationnarité ?
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Application 5 Question 2
Application 6 Question 3
Application 7 Question 4
Question 5
i Significativité seuil de 5% ?
t â0 = 3.09 > 1.96 Significatif
t â1 = 28.72 > 1.96 Significatif
t â2 = −11.6 < 1.96 non Significatif
ii Stationnarité ?
a1 + a2 = 0.97 → 1 → laisse penser que le processus n’est
pas stationnaire
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Application 5 Question 2
Application 6 Question 3
Application 7 Question 4
Question 5
i Significativité seuil de 5% ?
t â0 = 3.09 > 1.96 Significatif
t â1 = 28.72 > 1.96 Significatif
t â2 = −11.6 < 1.96 non Significatif
ii Stationnarité ?
a1 + a2 = 0.97 → 1 → laisse penser que le processus n’est
pas stationnaire
iii Si le processus n’est pas stationnaire ?
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Application 5 Question 2
Application 6 Question 3
Application 7 Question 4
Question 5
i Significativité seuil de 5% ?
t â0 = 3.09 > 1.96 Significatif
t â1 = 28.72 > 1.96 Significatif
t â2 = −11.6 < 1.96 non Significatif
ii Stationnarité ?
a1 + a2 = 0.97 → 1 → laisse penser que le processus n’est
pas stationnaire
iii Si le processus n’est pas stationnaire ?
Si le processus n’est pas stationnaire toutes les estimations
sont biaisées
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Application 5 Question 2
Application 6 Question 3
Application 7 Question 4
Question 5
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Application 5 Question 2
Application 6 Question 3
Application 7 Question 4
Question 5
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Application 5 Question 2
Application 6 Question 3
Application 7 Question 4
Question 5
0.60 0.40
Partial autocorrelations of y
0.00 0.20
-0.20
0 5 10 15 20 25
Lag
95% Confidence bands [se = 1/sqrt(n)]
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Application 5 Question 2
Application 6 Question 3
Application 7 Question 4
Question 5
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Application 5 Question 2
Application 6 Question 3
Application 7 Question 4
Question 5
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Application 5 Question 2
Application 6 Question 3
Application 7 Question 4
Question 5
ADIENG Applications
Question 1
Application 5 Question 2
Application 6 Question 3
Application 7 Question 4
Question 5
Modèle 1 2 3
Identification ARMA[(1,4) ;8] AR(1,4,8) ARMA[1 ;(4,8)]
Résidus BB BB BB
Signif ps sf ps sf ps sf
AIC -0.0445 -0.0224 -0.0757
SBC 0.0063 0.0474 -0.0248
Application 7 : Prévision
ADIENG Applications
Application 5 Question 1
Application 6 Question 2
Application 7 Question 3
Application 7 : Prévision
Question 1
ADIENG Applications
Application 5 Question 1
Application 6 Question 2
Application 7 Question 3
Application 7 : Prévision
Question 1
(1 − a1 L)yt = (1 − b1 L)ut
yt = a1 yt−1 + ut − b1 ut−1
ADIENG Applications
Application 5 Question 1
Application 6 Question 2
Application 7 Question 3
Application 7 : Prévision
Question 1
(1 − a1 L)yt = (1 − b1 L)ut
yt = a1 yt−1 + ut − b1 ut−1
ADIENG Applications
Application 5 Question 1
Application 6 Question 2
Application 7 Question 3
Application 7 : Prévision
Question 2
ADIENG Applications
Application 5 Question 1
Application 6 Question 2
Application 7 Question 3
Application 7 : Prévision
Question 2
ADIENG Applications
Application 5 Question 1
Application 6 Question 2
Application 7 Question 3
Application 7 : Prévision
Question 2
ADIENG Applications
Application 5 Question 1
Application 6 Question 2
Application 7 Question 3
Application 7 : Prévision
Question 2
ADIENG Applications
Application 5 Question 1
Application 6 Question 2
Application 7 Question 3
Application 7 : Prévision
Question 2
Application 7 : Prévision
Question 2
Processus (2)
ADIENG Applications
Application 5 Question 1
Application 6 Question 2
Application 7 Question 3
Application 7 : Prévision
Question 2
Processus (2)
prévision yt+1 :
ADIENG Applications
Application 5 Question 1
Application 6 Question 2
Application 7 Question 3
Application 7 : Prévision
Question 2
Processus (2)
prévision yt+1 :
prévision de yt+ j
f t (2) = (1 + a1 ) f t (1) + a1 y t
f t (3) = (1 + a1 ) f t (2) + a1 f t (1)
f t ( n ) = (1 + a1 ) f t ( n − 1) + a1 f t ( n − 2)
ADIENG Applications
Application 5 Question 1
Application 6 Question 2
Application 7 Question 3
Application 7 : Prévision
Question 3
ADIENG Applications
Application 5 Question 1
Application 6 Question 2
Application 7 Question 3
Application 7 : Prévision
Question 3
Processus (1)
ADIENG Applications
Application 5 Question 1
Application 6 Question 2
Application 7 Question 3
Application 7 : Prévision
Question 3
Processus (1)
erreur de prévision et (1) = yt+1 − f 1 (t) :
e t (1 ) = y t +1 − f t (1 )
= a1 yt + ut+1 − b1 ut − a1 yt + b1 ut
= u t +1
ADIENG Applications
Application 5 Question 1
Application 6 Question 2
Application 7 Question 3
Application 7 : Prévision
Question 3
Processus (1)
erreur de prévision et (1) = yt+1 − f 1 (t) :
e t (1 ) = y t +1 − f t (1 )
= a1 yt + ut+1 − b1 ut − a1 yt + b1 ut
= u t +1
erreur prévision de yt+2
e t (2 ) = y t +2 − a 1 f t (1 )
= a1 yt+1 + ut+2 − b1 ut+1 − a1 f t (1)
= a1 ( a1 yt + ut+1 − b1 ut ) + ut+2 − b1 ut+1 − a1 ( a1 yt − b1 ut )
= a1 ut+1 + ut+2 − b1 ut+1
= ( a1 − b1 )ut+1 + ut+2
ADIENG Applications
Application 5 Question 1
Application 6 Question 2
Application 7 Question 3
Application 7 : Prévision
Question 3
ADIENG Applications
Application 5 Question 1
Application 6 Question 2
Application 7 Question 3
Application 7 : Prévision
Question 3
ADIENG Applications
Application 5 Question 1
Application 6 Question 2
Application 7 Question 3
Application 7 : Prévision
Question 3
ADIENG Applications
Application 5 Question 1
Application 6 Question 2
Application 7 Question 3
Application 7 : Prévision
Question 3
Processus (2)
ADIENG Applications
Application 5 Question 1
Application 6 Question 2
Application 7 Question 3
Application 7 : Prévision
Question 3
Processus (2)
erreur de prévision yt+1 :
e t (1 ) = y t +1 − f t (1 ) = u t +1
ADIENG Applications
Application 5 Question 1
Application 6 Question 2
Application 7 Question 3
Application 7 : Prévision
Question 3
Processus (2)
erreur de prévision yt+1 :
e t (1 ) = y t +1 − f t (1 ) = u t +1
erreur de prévision de yt+ j
e t (2 ) = y t +2 − f t (2 )
= (1 + a1 )et (1) − ut+2 − b1 ut+1
= (1 + a1 − b1 )ut+1 − ut+2
e t (3 ) = y t +3 − f t (3 )
= (1 + a1 )et (2) + a1 et (1) + ut+3 − b1 ut+2 − ut+2 − b1 ut+1
= (1 + a1 )(1 + a1 − b1 )( a1 − b1 )ut+1 + ut+3 − (b1 − a1 )ut+2
et (4) = (1 + a1 )et (3) + a1 et (2) + ut+4 − b1 ut+3
+ a1 − b1 )Applications
= ut+4 + (1 ADIENG ut+3 + [(1 + a1 )(1 + a1 − b1 ) + a1 ]ut+2