Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
l'Il
1.1.1.
):Il
~~~~·lb.
/' 1111II1I1II=d)
':"~. ."'====::50
·····...·,··. ····."I·.. . '·.·.:x:.'
. I~:';:.;:~.:.:.;:,~:.I...!...\
" ' ' ' ' " " ' ' ' " , , ' ' " " " ' , , , 1" ~
Proj ~~Dysœ ~œs sœ~fiœs ~~~~m~D~ŒD~Œœs
5. 11 ~~~ D~ rnœ~~~~œ ~œ œID~-~Dms
A me s parents,
â Fe i r e de mo i ce que je sui s.
REMIERCRIEMENTS
Je tiens à remercier, ici, Ml'. Jean Claude WARMAOES,
gr-arid secours.
Fa i t ~ ~Lb dl
Ecole Polytechnique de Thiés
0 U:. ~L "l i "l <l&CU:lE. ;!!:IE.
Année Scolaire 1986-87
Proj ~~DV5œ ~œ5 5œ~aœs ~~~m~D~Œa~~œs
5. 11 ~~~ ~~ rnœ~~~~œ ~œ œV~-~D~S
INTRODUCTION. .. .. .. .. 1
CHAPITRE 1
PRESENTATION DE LA METHODE. ..
1.2 Chem ineme nt de la méth ode ... 6
CHAPTIRE 2.
IDEN TIFIC ATIO N .. .. .. .. .. 9
CHAPITRE 3
ESIMATION .. .. 30
CHAPITRE l!
CHAPITRE 5
ANNE XES. 51
Fa i t ~ g1Lb do 0 u.
Ecole Poly techn ique de Thié s
g1L"J i "J fi&«J1 E. !! lE.
Anné e Scol aire 1986 -87
Proj Am~nysœ ~œs sœ~ôœs ~~~m~n~ffiô~~œs
5. 11 ~~~ n~ rnœ~~~~œ ~œ œID~-~O~
comme suit:
Page - 1 -
Proj AUlal D'0/ Se d1œ s s œu' 0e S <I: IhIr<DUlID D<DIE 0q]Ulœ S
5. 11 ~aI~ Dai rnœa~<Ddlœ d1œ œV~-~D~
1es ... ) .
décisions.
Page - 2 -
Proj Am~Oo/sœ ~œs sœ~üœs ~~~m~O~mü~~œs
5. 11 ~~~ O~ rnœ~~~~œ ~œ œ~~-~D~
de conception en particulier.
Page - 3 -
1
Proj Am~Dys~ ~~s sœ~fi~s ~~~~m~D~mfi~~~s
5. 11 ~~~ D~ rnœ~~~~~ ~~ œID~-~D~
dans le futur.
Page - 4 -
Proj Am~Dys~ ~~s s~~ü~s ~~~~~~D~mü~~~s
5. 11 ~~~ D~ rn~~~~~~ ~~ œID~-~O~
- la tendance de la sSrie
Page - -5 -
Proj ~aDo/sœ ~œs sœ~oœs ~~~m~D~mO~~œs
5. 11 ~a~ Da rnœ~~~~œ ~œ œ~~-~D~
Page - 6 -
Proj AmffiO~sœ ~œs sœ~fiœs ~~~m~O~~fi~wœs
5. 11 ~ffi~ Offi rnœ~~~~œ'~œ œID~-~D~
Ver;fier /ic;adè'fuabon
Etape 3 Test
du n'\ode\e
(DIQgnoSb'c. chee-
klll j )
Page - 7 -
Proj Am~Do/sœ ~œs sœ~ôœs ~~IDmIDDID~ô~~œs
5. 11 ~~~ D~ rnœ~~ID~œ ~œ œID~-~D~
PROCE~SUS
~ "H d;,...l.\:.\ a. acv.. 0 ~ ~"(t:l f-i" \4~ cl i s to "t' i 6\<l.s
Su,. V\'\ a.- "(li. y i <li l:. la. Q Ia.A to \,.a 1 \ ... LI u '" \4 ~
\a. ~a:'cQ~is..".1'l ~t:"IIi(<:ltw( ""'o~ha\'lr
1" "~'f i 4h "\0 dt.. è. ci Q"!> \~ ta. "n4 ~ 50
(1) (J )
,\)" ~(t;lc.(/.":>sus 1'!\(.O'YIYlIJ 0"/\ ez..":>t4..'<t. 1ua. la.
do ""1\'1\ ll. .,.. ai 51'!> ~ 1ICJl. '"T'I\o4«-k Ùlo\'il\ eL<:.r '
.. 1
~di 9"" r
t\ ' " S 4.'(\(
I~EALISATION ., MODE-LE
I----------'.-:".,~.. (U"CL.fCl.'ra:S(,~ ~q \-io';"~ldlA
( 2) .fto C:Cl.:c;,<,(t<s·.t-<O:\J~a. 'CM_,
BOX et JENKINS
Page - 8 -
ChaoLfn.<?
\
Fage - 9 -
Proj Mal 0 'l' s œ dJœs s œlr ôœ s cc Ollr(D01(D 0 (DIE Ôq]LDœ s
5. 11 lPallr 0 al onœ1tOl(DdJœ dJœ lB([)X'(-.lJIIlI'D:OINS
Exemples de processus ~
Zt=C+01Zt-1+at------------------------- AR(1)
Page - 10 -
Proj AlnalO~sœ dJœs sœrrfiœs <r:lhrr([)Ul([)O([)/EfiqJUJœs
5. 11 ~alrr Dai rnœ~lh([)dJœ dJœ œ~~-~D~
stochastiques.
on le note MACq).
Page - 11 -
Proj ÂMllalOysœ dlœs sœll'fiœs a::lha'(I)IIl(I)O(I)/EUqjLOœS
5. 11 lPalll' 0al ll11œilOl(I)dlœ dlœ lB([)}1(-JJIEINI)(UlNS
Exemples de processus ~
moyenne de la série.
dans la littérature.
Page - 12 -
Proj tWlal 0 or s œ dlœs s œu' üœs ([ OlU'(DIIl(D 0(DIE Üqunœ s
5. 11 (pallr' 0 al onœ1t01(Ddlœ dlœ lBtD>1C-JJŒIMJ::OINS
* Le centrage
la variable aléatoire Z
Page - 13 -
Proj ~~Oo/sœ ~œs sœ~üœs Œ~~mmmOm~ü~wœs
5. 11 ~~~ O~ rnœ~~m~œ ~œ œ~~-~D~
* La différenciation
BZt=Zt-1
Bl<Zt =Zt-K
mani~re suivante:
MA :
où
autorégressif
de moyenne mobile
Fa i t ~ ~b 0 0 u . ~L ~ i ~ <!SoUlE!! :JE
Ecole Polytechnique de Thiés Année Scolaire 1986-87
Page - 14 -
Proj Aolal Dys œ dlœs s œil" Üœ s ([ iJlll"<DU1<D D<Dffl Üq]LDœ s
5. 11 ~alll" Oal rnœ~iJl<Dcllœ cllœ œ~~-~oms
(pacf).
,
Comme toute autre type de corrélation, la fonc-
avec:
ment indépendantes
Page - 15 -
Proj Amal D0/ S œ clJœ s s œ[)" üe s cr: Ihlr<DD1<D D<DIE Üq]UJœ s
5. 11 ~al[)" Dal rnœ~~<DclJœ clJœ œID~-~D~S
n-1 N N
E ZtZt+k
t =1
rK=
n-k
E ( Zt)'
t =1
Page - 16 -
Proj Am~Do/s~ ~~s sœ~D~s ~~~~~D~mD~~~S
5. 11 ~~~ D~ rnœ~~~~~ ~~ œ~~-~D~
H,-1
rK- E iJK - 1, J rK - j
J =1
k- 1
1 - E iJ]<: - 1, J r- j
j =1
vants:
Page - 17 -
Proj Am~Do/s~ ~~S sœ~D~s ~~~~m~D~mD~Œ~S
5. 11 IP~~ 0 ~ lIl1œllDl~~~ ~~ 1B({))\,(-JlIIDO: OINS
processus MA «n .
Page - 18 -
Proj ~ffiDysœ ~œs sœ~ôœs ~hr~m~D~mô~~œs
5. 11 ~ffi~ Dffi rnœ~~~~œ ~œ œID~-~O~
null es.
K-1
s (rK) = (1 + 2 * E l
r j ) y, *n - y,
j =1
Page - 19 -
Froj ~~Do/sœ ~œs sœ~üœs ~~~m~D~ffiü~~œs
5. 11 ~~~ D~ rnœ~~~~œ ~œ œID~-~D~
dire que:
Page - 20 -
Proj
5. 11
~.3l D0/ S e dlœS S œrr fi e S le Illcr'<Dcrl<D D<DIE fi qunœ S
~alrr Dal rnœ~lll<Ddlœ dlœ œ~~-~DWS
J
/1.0 A.O_~
r
-r-
CI c f~c t
1 1
f~
1 1 \ 1 1
k ~ La ~
1H ·L.L<l~
j
~,j.O _
A I? CA) 1 c/Jof >0 l
_1.0 ~
//.0 -- A. 0-
qCi pOc.f
1 1
fk \
1
1
I~
1
,
lu,,~
cfkk ,
R=- La (J
.:.:
l
-". Q -'-
Ag. (-.i)IrA": 0 1
_/1.0 -
Page - 21 -
Proj Aoléll Dys œ cllœ s s œll" Uœs (!: Ihll"<D!T1<D D<DIE UCjJLOœ s
5. 11 ~éllll" Déll rnœ~lh<Dcllœ cllœ œ~~-~~Dms
~. 0 -co /1.0 __
oC t pac. j
! 1
fI<,
1 1 1 1 1
,. ~n: ,.-
k" L ~ Q k;;La'd
j '}1~(2)
J
_4.0-,- _,1.0 --
A.o -- A.O __
-:
acf po c f
1 .'.1 .'
fI( 1
J
1
1
1
, ,
1 LLo~
l flf~· (~)
_1,0 __
.
_ A, 0 _'-
Page - 22 ..
Froj AoléD 0 ~ s œ dlœs s œrr üœ s ([ lhrr'lDrrllD 0lDtE ÜqJl1Iœ s
5. 11 lPéDrr 0éD ll11œtlOllDdlœ dlœ lBlD}l{-..JJIfINK DINS
,A,O-- ), 0 -~
acf lClc-t
f ;
1 1 -Ji
~, . "
1 \ 1
rR
~:L~~
1 1
1 1 Rz: Lad
l
_1.0--
AK L~)
_ A, 0_1...
1 1
.,
fil. l'
1
. l "
,
tK -...
1 1 1 LL0'à k =:Lo~,
1 Ap. (2)
l
_'.0 -." .... 4. 0--
Page - 23 -
Proj AIna! 0 'r s œ COœ s s œil' 0 e s ([ IhIl'<D01<D 0 <Dffil 0 CllUJœ s
5. 11 ~a!1I' Da! mœ~Ih<DCOœ COœ œ~~-~Dms
A.O - 1'1.0 -~
rd Ct-
zr c t
1 r
fI< -....
k:L4~
{k 1
1
1
1
,
1
-R:La}
l J
_,i.O-- MA(-fi( 0-1.(0 _ /1. 0 -,.. , -,
Page - 24 -
Proj AlnalDysœ cDœsr s œIr fi œs cr: IhIr(DOî(D D(D1J5 fi q]LDœ s
5. 11 [palIr Dal rnœ~lh(DcDœ cDœ œ~~-~Dms
OCt r f t1C
1 r
4 '.
\
;.
('l
.
k" La ~
~h
1
1
J
1 ~
R;; La J
j
."
.
.'
1 MA(<.)
~. .
_" . 0 -- - 0 -'-
lO -r- /I.o_~
j t1 cf
act -- .
1 --
'1 , ~ --' 1 1 \
,.
fil. /l.A. 1 1
R.",La~
\:l. 0 L~Hil
-
l
_ 1,0--
M fl(~)
_1.0 -'- 0
;
Page - 25 -
Proj Amal 0 or s e cOœ 5 sœlr'fiœs <I: [tur<D01<D 0 <DIE fiClIU1œ 5
5. 11 lPallr Oal ~œ~~<D~œ ~œ œ~~-~~o~
1
e., t
I OCt
1
~~
,
fk ,
1
R= La5
~
~
li
1
1 1
1
/;\:: La3
J
Mft(~)
r
. _A. 0 - _1.0 -~
r
acj PaLi
1 /
.'~'~.
,
ff{ r
,
iIl 1
r
R =La ~
'f
1
1 k= LqB
1
_1,0 --
MA(~)
_~.O -'-
Page - 26 -
r
Froj iW1alOo/Ste dJœs SteU' Utes CC01U"(D!Jl(D il (DŒ Uq]UJte s 1
5. 11 [palll" Oal rnœ~~(DdJte dJte œ~~-~Dms
ac ~ fClct
I r
fk "
1 1 1
...
~
~H 1
1 -...
L. L,a "à 1 b la~
l t
_/,-0 - _ A.O.,
Afl.H(~11)
11.0 -r-
'/1.0_,-
fClCf
, ac t . ~: .
t
'
1 ]
-
J;..
\ 1
i 1
1
"-4;.{(P- I
1 ,
...
1 ,
1 j( ~ La '4 kdqO
J
_(0
J _~
... 1.0 ...
p.. Rn A( ~, ~)
Page - 27 -
Proj
5. 11
Alnàl fi 'Vs œ cflœ s s œil'" ôœs <c IJlrr(DUl(D fi(DIE Ôq]LDœ s
~àlrr fiàl rnœ~lJl(Dcflœ cflœ œm~-~D~
J
11.0 ...
A.O _
i~c ~
ra c ~
r 1 1
~k
1 1
IR 1
r
Il. = La~
" .'
j
1
k:}a3
t
_ 4. 0
J
_ (0- . . .
'-
, .
flRI"'/A (1) 1)
A.o 11.0-r-
-r-
'pa cf
act
1 .,
1
Il
fk ~4
1 ~
1 , .~
, 1 1 1
1 ~ :;-La~ k=La;~
"
J J
_A.O-"" _ 1. 0 .L.
\ ",-,=""odO'"
Ecole Polytechnique de
~L~
Thiés
.. ~ <6CL1l:l52!.:l5
, r 1
"Annee Scolaire 1985-87
Page - 28 - l,·
Proj AnliD 0 0/ sœ dJœ s sœ!r fi œ s cc [h!rCDU1CD 0CD{g fi CIlLllœ s
5, 11 ~iD!r OiD mœ~[hCDdJœ dJœ œ~~-~o~
J l
_1,0 _L. _ ,1.0 _L..
OGt- pCl c t
1 1
fK Il 1 1 1
~k 1 1
LLa~ . ~ = L<l~
J
-1.0 _L..
1
_1.0 _
---- -
"-"
AI(f'1A ( '" 1 A)
Page - 29 -
3
Proj Am~Oysœ ~œs sœ~oœs ~~~~m~O~mo~~œs
5. 11 ~~~ O~ rnœ~~~~œ ~œ œID~-~D~
[~lUI!! ~[l!.!.Q.l!i.
lQ.L~Ji
~~i!I~J.~JI[lE.[~
Page - 30 -
Proj
5. 11
Am~Dys~ ~~s sœ~ôœs ~~~~m~D~Œô~~~S
~~~ D~ mœ~~~~~ ~~ œ~~-~u~ ]
Compromis parce qu'alliant la résolution des syst~mes
Page - 31 -
Froj km~Oysœ ~œs sœ~üœs ~~~~m~O~Œü~~œs
5. 11 ~~~ O~ rnœ~~~~œ ~œ œ~~-~D~
du modèle
mobile pure
moyenne mobile
la page suivante.
Fa i t ~ g:!Lb ô 0
Ecole Polytechnique de Thiés
u. g:lf. "l '" "l Cl&<UJE :!! JE
Année Scolaire 1986-87
Page - 32 -
Proj Am~Uysœ ~œs sœ~üœs ~~~m~U~mü~~œs
5. 11 IP~~ U~ rrnœ"tl:.lh~~œ cüe 1E([J}l(-JJŒIM)(DINS
Processus Paramètres
AR (1) r =Q
1 1
-8
MA (1) ri = 1
1 +81
1
r (1-r )
Qi = 1 2
1- ri
AR(2) 1
r -ri
82=--Z--i
1-r l
1
8 (1-8 )
ri =- 1 2
1 +81 +81
MA(2) 1 2
8
r2=- 2
1 +81 +81
1 2
(1-8 -8
1 ~\
) ({) )
ri = 1 1
1 +81 -2Q 8
1 1 1
ARMA (1, 1 )
r2= r {)
1 1
Page - 33 -
Proj ~@Oysœ ~œs s~~fiœs ~~~IDmIDOIDmfi~~œs
5. 11 ~@~ O@ rn~~~ID~œ ~œ œID~-~U~
Modèles Variance-corrélation
AR (1) V ( Q1 ) =n - 1 ( 1 - QI 1)
MA (1)
(1-Q8)1 (l-QI )
V (Q) = -
(Q -81 )
ARMA (1, 1 )
(1-Q8)1 (1-81 )
v (8) =
(Q-81 )
( 1 - Q8) ( 1 - QI ) (1 - 8 1 )
a=-----------
( Q -81 )
Page - 34 -
Ir========================ïl
Proj Am~ilo/s~ ~~s sœ~ü~s ~~~m~il~Œü~~~S
5. 11 [p~n' il al l1T1œitlh~~~ cüœ lB([)}1(-JJIllNlJ( OINS
nullité HO:
teK=
Page - 35 -
Froj ~l~Oysœ ~œs sœ~üœs ~~~~m~O~~ü~wœs
5. 11 ~~~ O~ rnœ~~~~œ ~œ œ~~-~Dms
où
si a=f3.
Page - 36 -
4
· III
Proj km~fiysœ ~œs sœ~fiœs ~~~~m~D~&fi~~œs
5. 11 ~~~ U~ rnœ~~~~œ ~œ œID~-~D~
- stationnarité
- inversibilité
- significativité
Page - 37 -
Proj ~~Oysœ ~œs sœ~Dœs ~~~~m~O~mü~~œs
5. 11 ~~~ O~ rnœ~~~~œ ~œ œID~-~Dms
nécessaire
Page - 38 -
Proj Am~D~sœ ~œs sœ~fiœs ~~~~m~O~mfi~wœs
5. 11 ~~~ O~ rnœ~~~~œ ~œ œ~~-~Dms
catif.
vérifiées.
Page - 39 -
Proj ~~Dysœ ~œs sœ~fiœs ~~~~m~D~mfi~~œs
5. 11 ~~~ D~ rnœ~~~~œ ~œ œ~~-~o~
l , 1 -1 < e < 1
1
résidus.
Page - 40 -
Proj ~m~nysœ ~œ5 5œ~ôœs ~~~m~n~mô~~œs
5. 11 ~~~ n~ mœ~~~~œ ~œ œID~-~Dms
non nulles.
n
s(rj{)=(1+2E r· J h
2 ) Y. n - Y,
t =1
s étant la variance des racfs (BARTLETT)
Page - 41 -
Proj ~~nvsœ ~œs sœ~üœs ~~~m~n~mü~~œs
5. 11 ~~~ n~ rnœ~~~~œ ~œ œ~~-~oms
du T de STUDENT.
k ! 3 1 T-val 1 z 1. 25
k > 3 1 T-val 1 !. 1. 60
pl us.
HO: r- 1 =r 2 =r 3 = =r 1 5: a
Page - 42 -
Proj ~~Dysœ ~œs sœ~üœ5 ~~~~m~D~Œü~~œs
5. 11 ~~~ D~ rnœ~~~~œ ~œ œ~~-~Dms
1 5
0:n(n+2) L: (n-]<;.) - l r]<;.A2 (at)
]<;. : 1
modè 1 e donné:
tableau suivant:
Page - 43 -
Proj ~~Dysœ ~œs sœ~üœs Œ~~~m~D~mü~~œs
5. 11 ~~~ D~ mœ~~~~œ ~œ œ~~-.mDNOCD~
comparaison.
Page - 44 -
Proj ~~Do/sœ ~œs sœ~Dœs ~~~m~D~mD~~œs
5. 11 ~~~ D~ rnœ~~~~œ ~œ œv~-~n~
1 n
RMSE=----
n m
100
MAPE=----
n
:t\_1
t .
Page - 45 -
5
tes étapes:
avec
n 1 n
C=~(1-L:: ih) ~ = - L:: Zt
i =1 n t=l
Page - 46 -
Froj ~m~Dysœ ~œs sœ~oœs Œ~~m~D~mo~wœs
5. 11 ~~~ D~ mœ~~~~œ ~œ œ~~-~ows
l'équation précédente.
Page - 47 -
Froj Am~Oysœ ~œs sœ~ôœs ~~~~m~O~mô~~œs
5. 11 ~~~ O~ rnœ~~~~œ ~œ œ~~-~Dms
prévisions. On la note:
Page - 48 -
Proj Am~Dysœ ~œs sœ~üœs ~~~romroDromü~~œs
5. i i ~~~ D~ rnœ~~ro~œ ~œ œID~-~O~
al [e t ( l ) ]
Page - 49 -
Proj Am~Oysœ ~œs sœ~fiœs ~~~~m~O~mfi~~œs
5. 11 ~~~ O~ mœ~~~~œ ~œ œ~%-~o~
lfJQJ~.lf..l1.11U2. illQ.l!!.
stat i st ique.
Fa i t par: ~b CIl 0 U.
S9L ~
Ecole Polytechnique de Thiés
~ ~ Cl&CU:lE ~:lE
Année Scolaire 1986-87
Proj Am~Oysœ ~œs sœ~ôœs ~~~m~O~mô~~œs
5. 11 ~~~ O~ rnœ~~~~œ ~œ œ~~-~o~
prévisionnelle.
Page - 2 -
, -
Proj Am~Dvsœ ~œs sœ~uœs Œ~~m~D~mD~~œS
5. i i ~~~ D~ rnœ~~~~œ ~œ œ~~-~Drns
BOX et JENKINS.
repérabl es.
par: ~ b 0 QI
Fa i t glL ~ i u, ~ Ci&(LJ:JE ~:JE
Ecole Polytechnique de Thiés Année Scolaire i966-87
Page - 52 -
'Proj ~ffiDysœ ~œs sœ~üœs ~~~~m~D~Œü~~œs
5. 11 ~ffi~ Dffi rnœ~~ID~œ ~œ œID~-~Dms
ordre.
pr-o c de r-,
ë
au moment de la remise du projet à un test
Page - 53 -
Proj AmmDysœ ~œs sœ~üœs ~~~ID~IDDID~ü~~œs
5. 11 ~m~ Dm rnœ~~ID~œ ~œ œ~~-~D~
BIBLIOGRAPHIE
c. "
.GEPBO)( ét· G.'M J"EN KIN5 "Time series
Anal.Ysi':l-F-orecGl5tin3 and control"'"
, A_ PAN kRATZ,~
.fereca!Jin'j '
\4Ii~h univariote
.
Box
" 1"
,
1
andJE.NKIN5 tnodel6 q.
, ,,
c
do 10 i = 1, 10000
10 read(5, M, ERR:20) donnees (i)
20 n=i
c
3 format (' 1', 20x, 'M M MME N U G E N E R A L M MM')
4 Format(4(/))
c
6 format(' ',10x,'[1] Identifier la série',I,10x)
7 format (' [2] Estimer les paramètres du modèle', /', 10x)
8 format ( ' [3] Tester les paramètres', /', 10x)
9 format(' [4] Faire des prévisions', Il, 10X)
5 format(' [0] Quitter le programme', 1111, 30x, $)
c
c
30 wr i t e ( M, 3)
write(M,4)
Wri te (M, 6)
wri te (M, 7)
wri te (*, 8)
wri te (*, 9)
wri te (*, 5)
r-e ad t x , *) in
c
if(in, eq. 0) goto 100
if(in,eq.1) goto 200
i f (in, e q, 2) goto 300
.I f (in, eq, 3) goto 400
if(in. eq,4) goto 500
c
goto 30
c
200 calI identifier
goto 30
300 calI Estimer
goto 30
4-00 calI Tester
goto 30
500 calI Prevoir
goto 30
c
C
100 stop
END
5ubroutine trace(acf,pacf)
Implicit real~8(a-h, o-z)
character code*2, cllgne*~O
dimension xl igne (~O), acf (15,3), pacf (15,3)
c
c
c
codeFF= char (12)
codeLF=char(10)
c
c
c
xligne(1)=-1.
Do 100 i =2, 11-0
100 xligne(i) =xligne(i-1) +.05
c
c
1 Format(' , , ',58('='),'ï1')
2 Format (' [ , , a 5 8, ' Il ' )
3 Format(' ( , 3 (, 11"' ) , ~O ( , ~' ) , ' { ) , "
~.
Forniat(' r ' [ La g IICoef. liT-val li
,20x, R ,19x, Il )
5 Format(' r , ',3 ( , 'C' ) , ~O ( ='), "l '11'
5 Format (' [ , , r 5, ' Il ' , f [. 2, r Il r , f 5. 2, r Il ' , a~O, r Il r )
wr i t e ( 5, 2) ,
Wr i t e ( 5, 2) , A U TOC 0 R REL A T ION S
wr i te (5, 2)
wri te (5, 3)
write(6,~)
wr i te (5, 5)
c
c
do 10 i = 1, 15
ac 1 =ac f ( i, 1)
ac 2 =ac f ( i, 2)
c a i i ligne(ac1, ac2)
write(5,5) i, aC1, acf(i, 3), codeligne
10 continue
wr i te (5, 7)
write(5, *) codeLF
write(*,~) 'Appuyer sur ~~ pour continuer'
r-e a d t s x ) code
i
c
write(5,1)
wr i t e ( 5, 2) r
Wr i t e ( 5, 2) , Autocorrélations partielles
wr i te ( 5, 2) r
wr i te (5, 3)
write(5, ~)
write (5,5)
c
do 20 i=1, 15
pac 1 =pac f ( i, 1)
pac2=pacf(i,2)
c a l l ligne(pac1,pac2,xligne, cligne)
wr i te (6, 6) i, pac 1, pac f (i, 3) • cl i gne
20 continue
write (6. 7)
wr i t e ( 6, M) code LF
write(M"M) 'Appuyer sur 4--' pour continuer'
r-e ad t x , M) code
c
c
Return
End
c
c
Subroutine Identifier(don,nx, acf,pacf)
Implicit realx5(a-h, o-z)
dimens i on don (rix ) , ac f ( 15, 3) , pac f ( 15, 3)
characterx2 code
c
c
c
CodeCS= char (12)
c
c
1 Format(' ' . . x MENU D"IDENTIFICATION . . x',III)
2 Format (l, 1üx,' [1] Calculer les coefficients de corrélation')
3 Format (l, 10x, r [2] Différenciere la série')
4- Format (l, 10x, r [0] Retourner au Menu Général')
5 Format(lIII,20x,'Vous désirez ?',i2,$)
c
c
10 write(x, x) codeCS
wr i te ( x, 1 )
wri te (x, 2)
wri te (x, 3)
write(x,4-)
read(x,5) in
c
if(in. eq. 0) return
if (in. e q. 1) then
do 20 i=1,nx-1
20 don(i)=don(i+1)-don(i)
nx=nx-1
else
if(in. eq. 2) then
calI centrer(don,nx, acf,pacf)
endif
endif
goto10
c
END
Subroutine centrer(dat,nx, acf,pacf)
Implicit real*8(a-h, o-z)
dimension dat(nx), d(2000), acf(15, 3),pacf(15, 3)
c
c
Do 10 1: l , nx
d ( i ) : da t ( i )
som:som+d(i)
10 som2:som2+d(i)**2
moy:moyjnx
c
c
do 20 i:l,nx
20 d(i) =d(i) -rno y
c
calI acorr(d,nx, acf)
calI pacorr(acf,pacf)
calI trace(acf,pacf)
c
return
end
subroutine ligne(a,b, c, xligne)
implicit r-e a r x e r a-fi. o-t)
v2:acf(1,2)
v3=acf(1,3)
if(in.eq.1) p(1)=R1
If (in. eq. 3) then
t1 = - 1/2/R 1 + ( 11 ( 2 li R 1 ) li li 2 - 1 ) **."5
t 2 = - 1/2/R 1 - ( 11 (2 * Ri) * * 2- 1 ) * *. 5
T ( 1 ) = donax (t 1, t 2)
endif
if(in. eq. 2) then
p(1) = (1-R2) *r1/(1-R1u2)
p ( 2 ) = (R'2 - Ri u 2 ) 1 ( 1 - Ri uR 2 )
i f (dab > (p ( 1 ) ). l t. 1
1. and. (p ( 1 ) +P ( 2) ). l t. 1
2. and. (p(2)-p(1)).lt.1)
eval=dab>p(1).lt. 1. and. (p(1)+p(2)). lt. 1. and. (p(2)-p(1)). lt. 1
IF(. not. eval) . call message
endif
if(in. eq. 5)then
p( 1) =r2/R (1)
t 1 =O.
P1=p(1)
do 20, i=1, 100
T1= ((1-P1*T1) * (p1-t1) (r1-1-T1u2)/2/P1
T(1)=t1
IF EVAL =dabs(p1).lt.AND.DABS(t1).LT.
IF(.NOT. EVAL) call message
endif
if(in. eq.~) then
Ti =0
T2=0
DO 30 i=1 • 100
T1= (t2-t1)/R1/1+T1**2+T2**2)
30 T2=-1/R2/(1+T1**2+T2**2)
e v a l e d ab s (t1).LT. LAND. (T2+T1).LT.1.AND. (t2-T1).LT. 1. AND. DABS(T2).LT.1
IF(. NOT. EVAL) call message
endif
if(IN. EG. 6) call car gen (acf, pa c f , p, t)
if(IN.EG.O) return
wr-Lt e s •• ) , appuyer sur 4..J pour continuer'
ï
a2:res(i-2)
A= Z-(P 1*Z 1 + P2 * Z2 -T1 MA1-T2 MA2)
r es tt je a
s i e s t eo a b s ra z z l
s2=s2+A**2
10 CONTINUE
rn e o
DO 20 I=1,15
IF (T(i).NEQ.O) m e m-ei
IF (p(i).NEQ.O) m c m ei
20 CONTINUE
M=m+ 1
ESMR :1/(n-m)Ms2 '\
epam :1/NMS1
c
if (modele.eq.1) then
S(1,1):p1
S(1,2)=(1-p1MM2)/n
8(1,4-)=1
ENDIF
if (modele.eq.2) then
s(1,1)=p1
s(2,1)=p2
s(1,2)=(1-p2lflf2)/n
s(2,2)=s(1,2)
s(1,4-)=-p1(1-p2)
s(2,4-)=s(1,4-)
ENDIF
IF (m od e Le .e q.ô) then
s(1,1)=t1
S(1,2)=(1-T1**2)/N
S(1,4-)=1
ENDIF
IF(modele,eq,4-) th en
s(1,1)=t1
S(2,1)=t2
s(1,2)=(1-t2lflf2)/n
s(2,2)=s(1,2)
s(1,4-)=-t1/(1-t2)
s(2,4-)=s(1,4·)
ENDIF
-;....x- ,
IF (modele.eq.5) then
s(1,1)=p1
s(2,1)=t1
s(1,2)=(1-p1~t1)**2~(1-pH*2)/(p1-t1~*2)
**
S ( 2 , 2 ) = ( 1 - P 1 * t1 ) 2 * (1- t 1* * 2 ) / ( P 1- t 1 ~ *2 )
S ( 1 , 4 ) = (1 - P 1 * 2 ) * ( 1 - P 1 * ~ 2 ) ( 1 - t 1 * * 2 ) / ( P 1 - t 1* * 2 )
s(2,4)=S(1,4)
ENDIF
rn e m-1
do 30 i=1,m
30 s(i,3)=dabs(s(i,1)/s(i,2)
SUBROUTINE DIGNOSTIC (res,nx)
IMPLICIT REAL~8 (a-h,o-z)
DIMENSION racf(15,3),res(nx)
CALL CENTER(res,nx,racf)
SUBROUTINE TESTER
IMPLICITE REAU8(a-h,o-z)
D lM ENSI ON r acf (15,3), r p a c f (15 ,3),c oe f( 4)
DATA /COEF /22.4,21.0,22.4,21.0,21.0,21.0/
CALL CENTER (ics,nx,racf,rpacf)
S 10 0
do 10 1<;=1,15
s 1 = s 1+ r a c f( 1<; , 1 ) MK2 / ( n x - K )
x q e n x xt n x s j x s t
ê
IF(xq.LT.COEF(modele)) then
wr i te(M,K) 'le modele choisi est adequat pour la precision'
else
wri te (M,20) xq
write (M,K) 'elle ne satisfait pas a l'hypotheae de nulliteavec 95ï.
DE NIVEAU DE CONFIANCE'
ENDIF
WRITE (M,X) 'appuyer sur <-1 pour retourner au menu r
read (K,M) code
20 format (' ".' la valeur Q du test de L~TUNG-BOX vaut',
f5.1 )
return
END
SUBROUTINE PREVOIR
IMPLICIT REAL M8(a-h,o-z)
CHAR ACTER CODEx2
DIMENSION DONNEES(2000),da t(2000),res(2000)
w(i)= plKdat(i-1)Mp2xpdat(i-2)xres(i)
-t1xres(i-l)-t2Mres(i-2)
tl=t(l)
pl=p(1)
t2=t(2)
p2=p(2)
pdat(-l)=O
PDAT(O)=O
DO 10 i=l,nx
10 p d a t t i j e w t L)
20 FORMAT (' ','ENTRER LES BORNES DE L'INTERVALLE DE PRECISION .r
$)
READ (x,20) 10,11
IF (lO.GT.NX) then
DO 39 i=nx,lO
30 pdat(i)=w(i)
ENDIF
RETURN
END
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1
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