Essai

LE ROLLING FORECAST
L'AGILITÉ AU SERVICE
DES PRÉVISIONS BUDGÉTAIRES
FORMATION 2023-2024
En partenariat avec :
Optima Management inc.

Montréal - 825 Rue Bellerive, local 102, Longueuil, Qc J4J 1A5
Copyright ©
Copyright © par Optima Management inc., André Bélanger, CPA, LEAN Master
et Luc Godin, FCPA, M.Sc.
Tous droits réservés.
Ce manuel ne peut être reproduit en tout ou en partie,

sous aucune forme, sans la permission écrite des auteurs
et d’Optima Management inc..
www.optima-mng.com
LE ROLLING FORECAST – L'AGILITÉ AU SERVICE DES PRÉVISIONS BUDGÉTAIRES
LE ROLLING FORECAST
L'AGILITÉ AU SERVICE DES
PRÉVISIONS BUDGÉTAIRES
Formation 2023-2024
Optima Management Inc.

www.optima-mng.com
Montréal : 514-486-2236
Québec : 418-874-1001
© Optima Management inc.
Votre animateur
André Bélanger, CPA et Lean Master

Consultant senior & Président
Expert en comptabilité de management
Spécialiste en gestion des coûts, amélioration des
processus et de la performance
Formateur à l’Ordre des CPA, au Mouvement Québécois de
la Qualité et conférencier
abelanger@optima-mng.com
(514) 486-2236
Pour obtenir des

informations additionnelles:
www.optima-mng.com
© Optima Management inc. 2
Copyright - Optima Management Inc. 1

Qui est Optima Management ?
+ de
+ de
Fondée en
350 20 000
1998 clients
gestionnaires/
professionnels
formés
Partenaires
Quelques Clients

Les Cercles Optima
 Un accélérateur de performance
 Des échanges sur les réalités que vivent

les CPA
 Du codéveloppement pour y voir clair
 Des nouvelles pratiques avec des gens

qui les ont adoptées et adaptées
 Un réseau pour échanger, apprendre et
transmettre
 Des thématiques choisies par les
membres
Objectifs
Permettre aux gestionnaires, professionnels de la fonction finance et aux comptables de :
 Reconnaître les principaux « moteurs » qui influencent l’évolution de leur organisation;
 Comprendre les raisons pour lesquelles des prévisions en continu (Rolling Forecast) sont essentielles
dans un environnement de plus en plus changeant; et
 Se familiariser avec une technique qui tient compte des ajustements et de la réalité qui influencent les
prévisions opérationnelles et financières.
Bénéfices escomptés
Cette session permettra aux participants de :
 Comprendre un outil de plus en plus utilisé dans les pratiques de prévisions financières;
 Cibler de façon réaliste les éléments qui influencent les prévisions;
 Intégrer les ajustements contemporains qui impactent des recettes et des déboursés;
 Connaître les outils nécessaires pour supporter ce nouveau type de budget; et
 Apprendre les pièges à éviter pour adopter le Rolling Forecast dans leur organisation.

Déroulement de la formation
Matinée Après-midi
08h30 – Introduction 13h00 – 3. Choix des indicateurs :
 Atelier 1  Établir les scénarios
09h00 – 1. Les prémisses du Rolling Forecast  Déterminer les responsabilités
 Connaître le niveau de suivi
 Définition
 Utilité 4. Quelques cas pratiques :
 Conditions d’utilisation  Atelier 3
 Atelier 2 – Partie 1 14h30 - 5. Les facteurs facilitants et les freins
10h30 - 2. Comment s’y prendre 6. Pour un suivi efficace
 Établir ses priorités
 Analyser les écarts
 Structurer l’information et les données
 Collaboration et communication entre les
 Fixer le niveau de détail gestionnaires
 Atelier 2 – Partie 2
7. Conclusion
12h00 – Dîner
16h30 – Fin de la formation
Présentation des participants

 Nom
 Entreprise, fonction, secteur d’activité ou

industrie
 Connaissance/expérience avec
le Rolling Forecast
 Attentes pour la journée

Introduction

9
Comment la comptabilité supporte la prise

de décision, la planification et le contrôle Une révision
fréquente favorise
un meilleur
Cadre décisionnel Comptabilité
contrôle…!
de gestion de gestion
1. Identifier et parvenir à un consensus sur les Budget – Prévisions
problèmes et les incertitudes • Prévoit les volumes et le mixte de ventes, Représentation financière du
2. Obtenir des informations fiables et et les revenus, les taux, les frais et plan
pertinentes pour analyse dépenses,
3. Prévoir l’avenir, préciser les résultats
escomptés
Comptabilité Enregistrement des transactions
4. Décider et mettre un œuvre une solution de • Documents sources (factures, paiements),
rechange réelles et leur classement dans
quantités vendues, taux
les registres comptables
• Par exemple, augmenter de 4 % les tarifs • Enregistrement dans le journal général et
publicitaires dans les auxiliaires appropriés
Apprentissage
Rapports de performance Déclarer les résultats réalisés

5. Obtenir de la rétroaction sur la
• Compare le réel avec le budgété :
performance et ajuster la décision ou la
• Le mixte de vente et les revenus dans des rapports de gestion
mise en œuvre si nécessaire • Les niveaux de performance pour les comparer aux prévision
• Les dépenses
10

Qu’est-ce qu’on reproche à nos budgets ?

 Ça prend du temps (jusqu’à plus de six mois de préparation)
 Gaspillage d’énergie inutile, certains gestionnaires trichent
 Processus coûteux
 Trop détaillé
 Difficile à mettre à jour
 Des dizaines, voire des centaines de chiffriers non intégrés
 Beaucoup d’erreurs (involontaires et volontaires..?)
 Processus incompris par certains gestionnaires
 Manque de collaboration (travail en circuit fermé) entre les départements
 Manque d’appropriation de la part des gestionnaires
 C’est l’équipe des finances qui fait la grande majorité du travail
 Les changements dans l’économie ne sont pas reflétés car il est statique.
11
Des réactions trop souvent observés …

 « Si vous n’utilisez pas tout votre budget, c’est signe
que vous n’en avez pas besoin… »
 « Tu n’es même pas capable de suivre un budget … »
 « Ça, il n’est pas question de le prendre sur mon
budget … »
 « On a mis ça dans mon budget mais je n’ai aucun
contrôle sur cette dépense … »
 « Pas question de faire un changement dans vos
postes comptables. Respectez vos budgets tels qu’ils
ont été établis ! »
Les compagnies qui réallouent une moyenne de 56% de leur capital dans d’autres unités d’affaires génèrent, sur
une période de 15 ans, un retour sur le capital de 30% supérieur annuellement…!
Source: « How to put your money where your strategy is”, McKenzie Quaterly, mars 2012, McKenzie & Company,
12

Qu’est-ce qui se passe ?

 Les prévisions ne tiennent pas compte des
changements qui vont influencer les résultats de
l’organisation dans une même année.
 Tout bouge de plus en plus vite et l’économie est
de moins en moins prévisible
 La compétition mondiale est inévitable dans la
plupart des secteurs d’activité
 Les guerres commerciales sont bien souvent issues
de différends politiques (Ex : Chine vs Canada pour le porc
et le soya à cause de la V-P finances de Huawei)
 Les conditions du marché ne peuvent plus être

prises pour acquises
Déjà, en 2002, les tenants de la gestion sans budget proposaient de remplacer les
prévisions annuelles par des « rolling forecasts ».
13
Module 1
Les prémisses du
Rolling Forecast

14
14

Qu’est-ce que le Rolling Forecast (prévisions en continu ) ?

La méthode du Rolling Forecast est un outil de pilotage
qui permet de « flexibiliser » le budget par la réalisation
des prévisions en adéquation avec l’évolution
Exercice actuel Prochain exercice
des besoins de l’entreprise
Sept.
Sept.
Mars
Mars
Mars
Août
Août
Nov.
Nov.
Avril
Avril
Avril
Déc.
Déc.
Fév.
Oct.
Fév.
Oct.
Fév.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Juin
Juin
Mai
Mai
Mai
Juil.
Juil.
et l’état d’avancement de
RFC 02
ses projets, et cela sur Votre prochain
plan financier
annuel
une période budgétaire RFC 05
sans interruption. RFC 08
RFC 11
Source : Houssam Biramane, 2018
= Résultats actuels
= Résultats anticipés
= Prévisions de résultats
https://www.compta-online.com/processus-de-prevision-budget-glissant-ao3236
15
Rolling Forecast……aligné au modèle opérationnel

Permet de :
 Mieux comprendre la performance de l’organisation vs les cibles
 Aux dirigeants de porter attention sur le futur
 Actualiser nos prévisions en fonction des dernières données réelles qui sont disponibles
 Prendre des décisions plus rapidement
 Réallouer les ressources plus adéquatement
 Mieux évaluer l’impact des actions sur l’exécution de la stratégie

Mars
Mars
Aout
Aout
Sept
Sept
Janv
Janv
Nov
Juin
Juin
Mai
Mai
Déc
Avr
Avr
Oct
Fév
Fév
Juil
Juil
(c) Optima Managmenent inc. 16
16

Rolling forecast
Niveau d'incertitude des résultats

0% 0% 0,02% +/- X %
17
Le défi : « voir » au-delà du mur de la fin d’année !

Sept.
Sept.
Mars
Mars
Mars
Août
Août
Nov.
Nov.
Avril
Avril
Avril
Déc.
Déc.
Fév.
Oct.
Fév.
Oct.
Fév.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Juin
Juin
Mai
Mai
Mai
Juil.
Juil.
RFC 02
RFC 05
RFC 08
RFC 11
= Résultats actuels
= Résultats anticipés
= Prévisions de résultats
18

Atelier - Cas SandGO

Portion 1 – Prise de connaissance du cas et
premier Rolling Forecast
Directives :
 Faites la lecture du cas et prenez connaissance
de l’outil Excel qui vous servira à intégrer les
ajustements
 Réaliser le premier exercice de Rolling Forecast
en intégrant les facteurs mentionnés pour les
6 premiers trimestres (T1 – T2 et suivants sur
18 mois)
 Analyser l’impact sur :
 l’état des résultats
 Le bilan
 L’état des flux de trésoreries
19
Tentations de prévision
Où mon patron veut que je Cible d’amélioration

dise que nous allons…! de 10%
Là où mes inducteurs et mes

analyses indiquent que nous
allons vraiment...
Où je vais dire que je vais

pour avoir l'air d'un héros
quand je battrai
les prévisions.
Trim 1 Trim 2 Trim 3 Trim 4
(c) Optima Managmenent inc. Source : Creating a Lean, Agile Planning Process, Presentation by Steve20
Player, LEAN Accounting Summit 2021,
20

Les bénéfices du Rolling Forecast

 En brisant la « barrière » du calendrier de 12 mois, on peut
toujours avoir le même horizon de planification.
 Sur une période de 15 à 18 mois, les dirigeants ont suffisamment
de « visibilité » pour bien gérer la performance et voir les actions
se transformer en résultats concrets.
 Réduction du temps de planification et de préparation du « budget » puisque celui-ci se fait en
continu.
 Les conflits entre les responsables des départements sont moins nombreux.
 Les décisions d’affaires sont plus « intelligentes » et se prennent plus rapidement puisque les
dirigeants ont l’information sur les marchés plus à jour.
 Les ressources sont mieux allouées puisqu’elles tiennent compte des changements observés.
 Permet de mieux faire les liens avec les plans d’actions reliés aux orientations stratégiques.
 Meilleur ajustement avec les fournisseurs en ce sens que la « visibilité » est en symbiose avec nos
besoins réels.
21
Les conditions d’utilisation

Certaines prémisses …
 Il faut en faire un exercice d’organisation et
non seulement qu’un projet des finances.
La gestion de la performance
(target setting-Optimistes) et la
 Ne pas essayer d’aller trop dans le détail. On
a observé que certains détaillent l’outil aussi gestion financière avec ses
profondément que leurs comptes de GL.
prévisions réalistes (et le budget)
 Des rencontres régulières permettront se doivent d’être séparées.

d’apporter de meilleurs ajustements.
22


On passe au mode Agile
 Les organisations qui ont implanté le Rolling
Forecast ont réussi à inculquer la notion
d’« agilité » dans leurs processus
prévisionnels.
 On va au-delà du budget et on a une vue

transversale sur les effets des changements.
 Puisque souvent, les opérations font déjà une

planification et des prévisions au-delà de la
fin d’année financière, pourquoi nos
prévisions financières ne s’adapteraient-elles
pas au même calendrier ?
Nous ne pouv ons pas afficher l’image.
23
…alors que
Le budget est l’environnement
fixé dans le change
béton… et que la
stratégie doit
évoluer
Nous ne pouv ons pas afficher l’image.
24


La période de planification + Fréquence de révision
La période de planification dépend de plusieurs éléments. Plus ces éléments seront instables, plus la
période de planification sera de courte durée (12 à 15 mois) avec une révision mensuelle.
À l’inverse, plus il y a de la stabilité, on aura tendance à opter pour une période de 18 mois avec une
révision trimestrielle.
25
Photo : fotolia
Module 2
Comment s’y
prendre ?

26
26

Implantation : 7 Facteurs clés de succès
1. 4. 7.
Culture Processus Participation
2. 5.
Systèmes Configuration
3. 6.
Gens Alignement
Source : Rolling Forecast Implementation: 7 factors for success, AFP 2013 Annual Conference, Las Vegas
27
1.
Importance de la culture organisationnelle Culture
En 2006, on reconnaissait que :
« les processus relatifs à la

planification, la budgétisation
et les prévisions devaient être
compatibles avec la culture
organisationnelle »
Source : Planning, Budgeting, and Forecasting for Superior Business Execution, APQC, 2006
Traduction, Optima Management inc.
28

1.
Changer la culture nécessite... Culture
1. L’intégration de nouveaux et 2. Éliminer les comportements non

comportements alignés avec la vision
 Faire de la planification un processus  Pas un événement annuel
continu
 Pas un événement uniquement
 Faire de la planification un processus « Top-Down »
inclusif
 Travailler avec le niveau de détail du GL
 Développer un modèle basé sur des
inducteurs  Ne pas regarder au-delà de l'année en
 Continuer à regarder vers l'avenir
cours
 Rendre les gens responsables  Utiliser leur budget comme une
et redevables du contrôle couverture - pour se protéger
des dépenses  Garder les mêmes habitudes
 Dépenser et investir pour ce de dépenses
dont nous avons besoin
© Optima Managmenent inc. 29
29
1.
Orientations, tendances et solutions Culture
Orientations Tendances Solutions/outils

 Valeurs LEAN, Amél.  Écoute/communication
continue/qualité, etc.  Humilité de gestion
 Responsabilisation
Ajuster la culture de
 Cohérence et  Déploiement « serré »
l’organisation pour y alignement  Hoshin Kanri
développer une capacité
 Capacité d’ajustement
d’adaptation/prévision  Budgétisation par
 Flexibilité activités
aux changements  Rapidité  Rolling forecast
 Sophistication  Outils analytiques
plus perfectionnés
et IA
30

Tendances de 2013 1.
Culture
Prévisions financières Flexible Aligné sur les besoins changeants
Hypothèses dépassées
31
2.
Structurer l’information et les données Systèmes
Est-ce que ce schéma vous paraît familier ?
FINANCES MARKETING
Un cauchemar,
vous dites ?
 Inefficiences
 Manque de communication
 Retouches manuelles
 Données constamment en
extraction V1
 Erreurs de saisie VENTES V2 APPROVISIONNEMENT
 Multiples versions Source : Lanzkron R., (2017) Best Practice in the budget and planning process
V22
Traduction et adaptation : Optima Management, 2021
32

2.
Les systèmes Systèmes
1. S’assurer d’avoir accès aux

données
2. Obtenir des données à jour
3. Voir à l’intégration des données
pour une vision cohérente de la
stratégie. On doit en comprendre
les liens.
4. Veiller à valider puis pouvoir
modifier les hypothèses
5. Basés sur des analyses avancées
33
Structurer l’information et les données 2.

Magic Quadrant for Corporate Performance Management Systems Systems
Systèmes de gestion de la performance d’entreprise
Source: Nucleus Research Note, CPM TECHNOLOGY VALUE MATRIX 2022, Document W11-
February 2022
34

3.
Les gens Gens
Le RF nécessite beaucoup d’analyses, de

modifications dans les prévisions et de
Calendrier
prises de décision rapides.
Le support de la haute direction assurera le
succès de son implantation.
Haute
À cette fin, on recherchera des direction
Inducteurs
gestionnaires qui font preuve de :
1. Responsabilisation et imputabilité
2. Travail d’équipe
3. Communication régulière
Sources de Analyse
4. Ouverture données des écarts
35
3.
Les gens Gens
Pour amener les gestionnaires de la haute direction

à participer pleinement à l’implantation du RF, une
formation devrait leur être spécifiquement dédiée
Caractéristiques
pour qu’ils puissent, par la suite, expliquer à leurs recherchées chez les
propres gestionnaires : gestionnaires :
 Analytiques
 Les bénéfices de cet outil de gestion;  Bons communicateurs
 Peuvent voir la « Big
 L’importance de communiquer les changements
picture »
observés dans le marché;
 De réels partenaires
 Comment éviter les risques potentiels; d’affaires
 Peuvent créer des
 Apporter des plans d’actions concrets.
modèles
36

4.
Processus : Les principes de base Processus
Principe À privilégier À éviter

Objectifs  Fixez des objectifs relatifs pour une  Pas de contrats de performance fixes.
amélioration continue
Récompenses  Récompensez le succès partagé en  Pas en fonction de la réalisation de cibles
fonction des performances relatives fixes.
Planification  Faites de la planification un processus  Pas un événement annuel descendant.
continu et inclusif
Contrôle  Basez les contrôles sur des indicateurs et  Pas sur des écarts par rapport au plan.
des tendances relatifs
Ressources  Mettre les ressources à disposition selon  Pas par le biais d'allocations budgétaires
les besoins annuelles.
Coordination  Coordonner les interactions de manière  Pas par le biais de cycles de planification
dynamique annuels.
Source : Zeller T.L. et Metzger L.M., (2013), Good Bye Traditional Budgeting, Hello Rolling Forecast: Has the Time
Come?, American Journal Of Business Education – May/June 2013, Volume 6, Number 3
Traduction : Optima Management inc.
37
4.
Processus : Les caractéristiques Processus
 Dynamique, rapide et flexible
 Planification continue
 Facilite la collaboration et la
communication
 Des rencontres mensuelles
 Des analyses et ajustements
 Un lien constant avec la

stratégie
38

5.
La configuration Configuration
 L’horizon est déterminé par le temps nécessaire pour la

prise de décision
Horizon
 La fréquence des mises à jour dépend des changements
qui se produisent dans l’environnement de l’organisation
Exemples :
Vitesse Fréquence  Lignes aériennes : 6 trimestres, mensuels
 Technologie : 8 trimestres, trimestriel
 Pharmaceutique : 10 trimestres, trimestriel
Détails
 Niveau de détail
 Horizontal : mensuel, trimestriel, semestriel
 Vertical : Éléments stables = peu détaillé
Source : Rolling Forecast Implementation: 7 factors for success, AFP 2013 Éléments dynamiques = plus détaillé
Annual Conference, Las Vegas
39
6.
Alignement Alignement
1. Adopter une pensée stratégique

2. Impliquer le plus de gestionnaires
possibles pour que cette pensée
stratégique devienne une culture
3. Communication, communication,
communication
4. Le personnel affecté aux finances doit
devenir des gens incontournables lorsque
vient le temps de faire le choix des
actions
5. S’assurer que les informations transitent
dans les deux sens (Haut vers le bas et du
bas vers le haut)
40

7.
Participation
Participation
La participation devrait être un
des éléments pivots.
Plus on impliquera de gens dans
le processus, moins il y aura de
déficiences dans l’application des
stratégies entre les différents
paliers de l’organisation.
Les responsables de la fonction
finance commencent à jouer ce
rôle clé de voir à la participation
des gestionnaires.
41
Pour faciliter la démarche : Établir ses priorités

 Liens avec les orientations stratégiques
 Réviser le processus d’établissement des prévisions
(procédures, documentation associée)
 S’entendre sur les pratiques prévisionnelles qu’on doit abandonner

 Identifier les facteurs qui influenceront les prévisions et comment
ces facteurs seront communiqués
(Comment l’information sera transmise par les responsables de chacun des
départements/services et comment cette information sera intégrée au modèle du RF)
 Statuer sur l’importance des flux de trésorerie

 Reconnaître/différencier les revenus récurrents et non récurrents
 Tenir compte de l’impact du taux de change
 Choisir la plateforme
42

Atelier - Cas SandGO

Portion 2 – On ajuste les paramètres pour
le 2e Rolling Forecast
Directives :
 Faites la lecture du cas Portion 2
 Prenez l’outil Excel-Portion 2 qui vous servira à
intégrer les ajustements (il y a 6 mois de complétés
du premier exercice)
 Réaliser le 2e exercice de Rolling Forecast en
intégrant les facteurs mentionnés pour les
Trimestres 3 – 4 – 1 – et suivants (sur 18 mois)
 Analyser l’impact sur :
 l’état des résultats
 Le bilan
 L’état des flux de trésoreries
43
Photo : Damotech
Module 3
Choix des
inducteurs

44
44

Le plan stratégique, point d’ancrage

Tout comme Bambi lorsqu’il  Qu’est-ce qu’on veut mesurer ?
rentre en courant sur la
glace, on a l’impression, à  Quelles sont nos priorités ?
l’occasion, que notre
entreprise perd toute  Sur quoi se base notre modèle d’affaire ?
adhérence lorsque des Quel est le modèle de revenus (fee for
changements surviennent à service, autre) ?
notre environnement.
 Qu’est-ce qui influence notre
Il faut revenir aux éléments organisation ?
de base de son plan - la demande ?
stratégique : - la compétition ?
- le coût des matières premières ?
- les installations ?
- les marchés extérieurs ?
 Qu’est-ce qui pourrait faire déraper

notre stratégie ?
45
Inducteurs critiques : Vue d’ensemble de l’organisation

Revenus et marges Facteurs de coût significatifs Facteurs macro-économiques
 Structure de prix et de coûts  Ressources humaines  PIB
 Cycle de vie des produits  Produits de base  Taux d’intérêt
 Introduction des nouveaux produits  Intrants significatifs  Situation géo-politique
 Contrats et programmes de revenus  Réglementation publique
 Facteurs macro-économiques  Facteurs démographiques (taux de
 Forces du marché et de la compétition natalité, vieillissement de la population,…)
 Taux de change
Investissements d’importance Plan pour le capital humain Risques et avantages

 Nouveaux produits, programmes  Nombre de personnes  Délais des Nouveaux
 Technologie de l’information  Nouvelles embauches, recrutement produits/Programmes
 Expansion d’importance  Mesures incitatives, d’encouragement  Perte de contrats/clients importants
 Acquisitions  Assurance-santé  Expansion majeure
 Ajustements à l’IPC  Acquisitions
Source : Alexander J. (2018), Financial Planning & Analysis; p. 285
 Pour la grande majorité des organisations, 80 % de l’attention devrait être portée sur les revenus et les marges
 Ne pas essayer de reproduire le budget ou le plan annuel
 Chaque organisation a ses propres inducteurs et l’aperçu de ces inducteurs doit refléter les circonstances spécifiques
46

Établir les scénarios en fonction des orientations stratégiques

 Profiter d’une opportunité ?
 Abandonner un produit ?
 Ouvrir des succursales ?
 Mettre à pied temporairement ?
 Accélérer la recherche pour un vaccin ?
 « Casser » la concurrence ?
 S’associer à un compétiteur pour un volet

particulier et partager le risque ?
47
Un exemple : la téléphonie cellulaire …
À une époque pas très

lointaine, pour les
compagnies de cellulaires,
le temps que les abonnés
passaient au téléphone
affectait directement leurs
résultats. Avec les forfaits
offerts actuellement, Minutes
Textos
l’inducteur temps n’est plus
Données
valable.
Abonnés
48

Avec les « prévisions en continu », vos

prévisions ne sont plus basées sur les
résultats passés.
Au contraire, vos mesures telles que la
croissance des catégories, la part de
marché, le capital humain et la
satisfaction des clients sont intégrées
dans votre système.
Le fait de pouvoir ajouter ces facteurs
clés à vos prévisions vous permettra
d'améliorer la qualité de vos prévisions.
49
Prévisions et liens avec les catégories de coûts

Sources de coûts Catégories de coûts
Améliorations Liées aux projets
Entretien
Liées à la
Budget demande
opérationnel Opérations
Infrastructures Liées aux projets

Liées aux structures
Budget
Initiatives stratégiques Liées aux décisions
stratégique
50

“Integrated Resource Planning & Reporting”

Coordination des méthodes budgétaires avec les catégories de coûts
Méthodes Méthode de contrôle
Planification à long terme Catégories de coûts prévisionnelles de gestion
demande
Prévision
Liées à la Budgétisation par Coûts par activités

demande activité/Roll Forecast Prévisions opérationnelles
Stratégique
Planification et
Planif.
Liées aux projets budgétisation par Prévisions par projet

projet
techno
Planif.
Zero-Based
Liées aux décisions
Budgeting
Prévisions
des frais fixes
capacité Organisa.
Design
Budgétisation des
Liées aux structures
coûts fixes
Planif.

Source : Inspiré et adapté des travaux de Michael Tinkler, « Integrated Resource Planninf & Reporting » de RCGT
51
Définir et adapter le niveau de suivi
Appropriate forecasting allows the

 Hebdomadaire
firm to compare where they are to
 Mensuel where they can go and ultimately
where they want to be.
 Trimestriel
Une prévision appropriée permet à
 Semestriel l'entreprise de comparer où elle se
trouve, où elle peut aller et, en fin
 En solo de compte, où elle veut être.
 En coordination
52

Photo : Shutterstock
Module 4
Quelques cas
pratiques

53
53
Un exemple : Rutherford Chemical Company
Entreprise Variables du RF Pertinence Variabilité Vitesse de Fréquence de Horizon de

économique réponse mise à jour prévision
multinationale qui
fabrique une variété de Composition des ventes Élevée Élevée Élevée Mensuelle Trimestrielle
de produits
produits chimiques tels
Disponibilité des Élevée Moyenne Moyenne Hebdomadaire Mensuelle
que des engrais et des matières premières
colorants qu’elle vend à Composantes agricoles Élevée Faible Moyenne Mensuelle Saisonnière
divers clients
commerciaux et Réglementation Élevée Moyenne Moyenne Semestrielle Annuelle
environnementale
industriels. L’entreprise a
Taux de change Moyenne Élevée Élevée Hebdomadaire Trimestrielle
des activités de
fabrication en Amérique Taux d’intérêt Moyenne Moyenne Moyenne Mensuelle Trimestrielle
du Nord et du Sud, en Coût du diesel Moyenne Moyenne Moyenne Trimestrielle Semestrielle
Europe et en Asie.
54

Processus de planification continue :

Nous avons réaligné notre planification d'entreprise pour qu'elle
soit plus continue et plus cohérente dans toute l’entreprise Flash hebdomadaire/
Plan à moyen terme Budgets trimestriels AOP Plan directeur
Séquence de Séquence
Objectifs Solde des Séquencement Séquencement
changement et portefeuille et
stratégiques investissements des dépendances des ressources Gérer le
de portée budgets
portefeuille
Gouvernance des
investissements Optimiser le
portefeuille
Re-prioriser
Re-séquencer
L'activité de base est le fondement et le point central de nos efforts le portefeuille Demandes de
de planification, mais nous avons de nombreux éléments mobiles modification
Source : Beyond Budgeting 14th Annual Conference Nouvelles
Ryan Martinez, Director, FP&A demandes
© Optima Management inc. Source : Creating a Lean, Agile Planning Process, Presentation by Steve 55
55
Étude de cas
 En activité depuis près de 100 ans, plus de 400 unités commerciales.
 En 2005, elle a demandé un péage pour améliorer/simplifier le
processus budgétaire et introduire plus de prévisions.
 En 2009, la GRANDE récession les a touchés…
 Réduction des effectifs de 25 %,
 réduction des stocks et de la flotte de location de 200 millions de dollars en
18 mois.
 réduction des dépenses globales de 50 millions de dollars
 Le "budget" était mort
 Ils demandent à leur équipe de faire de leur mieux.
 Ils ont prévu un scénario bas, moyen et haut, mais n'ont pas fixé de
chiffre précis.
 Ils ont utilisé le système de benchmarking CAT Dealers comme guide.
 Résultat - une augmentation de 33% par rapport à nos résultats de
2009..!
© Optima Management inc. Source : The HOLT CAT Continuing Journey Towards World Class 56
Forecasting, Paul Hensley, November 2014,
56

American : Transform to Continuous Planning Allocation

des
Cibles Plan
ressources en
alignées annuel
Les catalyseurs : temps
• Collaboration Revue opportun
finances/entreprises mensuelle
Plan à
des résultats
long Se concentrer Optimisation
• Outils et terme sur les
technologies Integrated de la valeur
performances pour
robustes Decision futures de
Évaluation l'actionnaire
Support l'entreprise
• Information mensuelle de la
Processes
Entreprise flexibilité des
• Visibilité externe Stratégie risques/opportunités Visibilité pour
Validation améliorer/aju
• Application des ster la
Décision formulation
principes Six Sigma
Prévisions d'optimisation des et l'exécution
trimestrielles investissements en de la
cours stratégie
57
Un exemple : un fabricant de tissu
2. Approvisionnement
Approvisionnement 3. Production
Coût (+ douanes + Algorithme 4. « Mode »

taux de change) Niveau d’inventaire
Temps de livraison Nb de machines Tendances : 1. Rolling Forecast
Annulations Vitesse
Grèves Types de fil Qualité Couleur 1 + 2 = Gestion de
Prix trésorerie
+ 3 = Prévisions
+ 4 = Support à
la décision
Source : Melnychuk et al. (2019), Rolling Forecast: FP&A >Trends E-Books, Issue #1, 2019
58

Deux autres exemples

Groupon Richard Reinderhoff
• Un système est essentiel et Excel n’est pas un • Qu’est-ce qui est attendu pour l’année à
système venir ?
• Identifier la durée du RF • Allons-nous atteindre la cible ?
• Identifier les périodes de comparaison du RF • À quoi s’attend la haute direction pour le
• Comprendre et analyser la dynamique des court terme ?
recettes et des dépenses et les facteurs • À quoi s’attend la haute direction pour le
connexes long terme ?
• Planifier les projets d’investissement et les • Comment l’entreprise évoluera-t-elle ?
projets stratégiques séparément • Quelles sont les tendances ?
• Commencer par un petit groupe restreint, • Si des actions sont nécessaires, nos
puis élargir au reste gestionnaires sont-ils en mesure de les
• Lier les prévisions au plan stratégique mener à terme ?
• Comprendre comment les conditions • Le problème a-t-il été réglé ?
extérieures influencent vos performances • Les résultats le démontrent-ils ?
• Soyez prêts !
Source : Melnychuk et al. (2019), Rolling Forecast: FP&A >Trends E-Books, Issue #1, 2019
59
Modifier les variables
Forecast
Résultats actuels Là où mes indicateurs

et mes analyses
indiquent que nous
allons vraiment
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6
60

Atelier 3 - Analyse des enjeux et des défis

Directives : 20 minutes
En prenant votre organisation comme référence et
en vous référant aux concepts vu jusqu’à maintenant …
 Identifier et analyser les principaux enjeux et
défis internes auxquels vous ferez face pour
réussir une implantation de votre projet
de Rolling Forecast
 Énumérer quels en seraient les bénéfices
 Que proposeriez-vous comme feuille
de route et comme plan d'action ?
 Partagez vos réflexions en sous-groupe
61
Photo : Distribution 2020
Module 5
Les facteurs
facilitants
et les freins

62
62

Ce que certains praticiens recommandent :

Étapes à suivre :
1. Articuler les objectifs autour du modèle de prévisions et de perspectives
commerciales.
2. Examiner les plans d'exploitation et les rapports de gestion actuels
3. Identifier les moteurs d'activité essentiels :
- Les plus importants (règle des 80/20 de Pareto)
- Ceux qui varient le plus
- Hypothèses critiques
4. Concevoir l'architecture :
- Se concentrer sur les moteurs essentiels de l'activité
- Optimiser le compromis ; détail ou résumé
- Incorporer de manière explicite des hypothèses
- Intégrer le modèle, Disposer du flux, Analyse et présentation
5. Cheminement pratique de la mise en œuvre :
Étape 1 : Commencer par un programme de tendances sur 12 trimestres
Étape 2 : Élaborer un résumé de haut niveau d'une page pour chaque rubrique de la fiche financière
Étape 3 : Réviser en fonction de l'expérience acquise ; intensifier l'attention portée aux conducteurs
Source : Alexander J. (2018), Financial Planning & Analysis, p.284
63
Processus : Les principales étapes selon …
1. Définir des objectifs pour le développement

1. Identifier les objectifs d'opportunités commerciales à la demande
2. Tenir compte de la période de temps dans la 2. Documenter et examiner les plans d'exploitation, les
planification budgets et les prévisions actuels
3. Déterminer le niveau de détail 3. Identifier les moteurs d'activité critiques
4. Identifier les contributeurs au processus 4. Concevoir les processus et l'architecture du modèle
5. Identifier les facteurs de valeur 5. Parcours de mise en œuvre pratique
6. Vérifier les sources de données 6. Carte pour l'aperçu financier
7. Créer des scénarios et déterminer les 7. Résumer et présenter les prévisions et les perspectives
"sensibilités de l'organisation
8. Mesurer les prévisions actuelles et estimées
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/accounting/rolling-forecast/
8. Établir la fréquence et le calendrier des prévisions
https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Financial+Planning+%26+Analysis+and+Performance+Management-p-
9781119491484 page 283
64

Les trois étapes de la maturité des prévisions glissantes

Qu'est-ce qu'un rolling mature implique ? Grâce à la collaboration et à la discussion, le London FP&A Board a
développé le modèle de maturité suivant pour les prévisions glissantes.
ÉTAT DE BASE ÉTAT INTERMÉDIAIRE ÉTAT AVANCÉ
• MODÈLE STATIQUE • MODÈLE PARTIELLEMENT BASÉ SUR LES • MODÈLE BASÉ SUR LE CONDUCTEUR
• LA PRÉVISION EST UN OUTIL DE MESURE MOTEURS • LA PRÉVISION EST UN OUTIL DE GESTION
• DEUX PRÉVISIONS : TRADITIONNELLE ET • LA PRÉVISION EST UN OUTIL DE MESURE • UNE SEULE PRÉVISION ; ROULEMENT
GLISSANTE • DEUX TYPES DE PRÉVISIONS : • FAIBLE NIVEAU DE DÉTAILS
• TROP DE DÉTAILS TRADITIONNELLE ET CONTINUE • FORTE COLLABORATION
• COLLABORATION MINIMALE • NIVEAU DE DÉTAIL MOYEN • ANALYSE AVANCÉE
• ANALYSE DE BASE • COLLABORATION MOYENNE • PROCESSUS AUTOMATISÉS
• PROCESSUS HAUTEMENT MANUEL • QUELQUES ÉLÉMENTS D'ANALYSE • SYSTÈME DE FP&A FLEXIBLE
• EXCEL PROACTIVE • PROCESSUS AGILE ET INTÉGRÉ
• PROCESSUS PARTIELLEMENT AUTOMATISÉ
• SYSTÈME DE FP&A INFLEXIBLE
Source: Larysa Melnychuk, Managing Director et FP&A Trends
Group,
65
Facteurs de facilitation, obstacles

au changement et leçons apprises
Pour faciliter la mise en œuvre, vous devez éviter les pièges les plus courants
À faire À ne pas faire
 Choisir judicieusement ce qu'il faut changer et quand  Être tenté de prendre trop de changements en une seule fois
 Mettre en œuvre progressivement, il s'agit d'une évolution  Il ne s'agit pas d'un ajustement ponctuel
et non d'un événement
 Si les dirigeants et les responsables des prévisions ne
 S'occuper de la gestion du changement et accompagner les comprennent pas le " comment et le pourquoi ", ils
managers dans leurs prévisions. soumettront des prévisions non informées et tardives.
 Passez plus de temps sur l'analyse que sur la mécanique - ce  Consacrer plus de temps et de ressources à l'examen et à la
sont les résultats qui comptent. création des données (par rapport à l'analyse).
 Intégrer les évaluations des risques et des opportunités
 Accorder trop d'importance à la précision
 Obtenez et maintenez l'engagement des acteurs clés en
collaborant avec eux.  Utiliser trop de détails
 Séparez les actions de gestion des forces économiques  S'appuyer sur des prévisions basées sur la probabilité
 Commencez par les tendances du secteur et discutez des  Confondre les objectifs (et la rémunération au rendement)
parts de marché avec les prévisions.
 Utiliser une technologie spécifique  Prévoir jusqu'au bout
 Retirer les anciens modèles de prévision  Ne pas tirer de leçons de ses prévisions
66

Comment le modèle budgétaire traditionnel

mine l'efficacité des outils de gestion en place
ERP et Rolling Modèles de valeur pour les
Forecast actionnaires (EVA)
Les budgets
les budgets
conduisent à une
soutiennent
distorsion de
les décisions
l'information
politiques
Les budgets les budgets se Analyse

Gestion de la Visant le
mettent l'accent concentrent sur
relation sur les objectifs
contrôle
les comparaisons
comparative
central
client (CRM) de vente internes (Benchmarking)
Les « contrats »
Budgets sont budgétaires
concentrés sur les dominent les
départements VS impératifs
les activités stratégiques
Gestion par Tableau de bord

activités Stratégique (BS)
(ABM)
Source : Figure 9-2, p. 179, Beyond Budgeting: how managers can break free from the annual
performance trap. Traduction libre : Optima Management inc.
67
Le Rolling forecast et sa place dans

l’approche Beyond Budgeting
6 piliers de la gestion « Beyond Budget »
Budget Traditionnel Budget Beyond Budget
1. Cibles fixes 1. Cibles relatives

2. Récompenses selon des 2. Récompenses relatives
objectifs fixes
3. Planification à une période 3. Planification en continue
fixe
4. Allocation des ressources 4. Ressources à la
demande
5. Coordination centrale 5. Coordination dynamique
6. Contrôle des écarts 6. Contrôle des facteurs
clés de succès
Source : Figure 2-1, p. 27, Beyond Budgeting: how managers can break free from the annual
68

Le Rolling forecast et sa place dans

l’approche Beyond Budgeting
Ce que l’on veut incorporer dans les 6 piliers
 Les objectifs : Battre la concurrence pas le budget
 La stratégie : La développer continuellement, pas
annuellement
 L’amélioration : Changer radicalement, pas par étapes
 Les ressources : Gérer les ressources à long terme, ne pas les
allouer
 La coordination : Gérer les causes à effets, pas les budgets
 Les coûts : Gérer la valeur, pas les coûts
 Les prévisions : Créer le futur, ne pas chercher à rester dans
les rails
 Le contrôle : Utiliser quelques indicateurs, pas une somme
de données
 Les récompenses : Encourager le travail d’équipe, pas
l’individualisme
 La délégation : Donner des responsabilités et de la liberté
aux gestionnaires Source : Figure 2-1, p. 27, Beyond Budgeting: how managers can break free from the annual
69
Le Rolling forecast et sa place dans l’approche

Beyond Budgeting : 12 grands principes
Un processus adaptatif et continu:
Source : Figure 4-1, p. 70, Figure 7-1, p. 144, Beyond Budgeting:

how managers can break free from the annual performance trap.
© Optima Management inc. Traduction libre : Optima Management inc. 70
70

Le Rolling forecast et sa place dans l’approche

Beyond Budgeting : 12 grands principes
Culture décentralisée et d’équipe :
Culture
Source : Figure 4-1, p. 70, Figure 7-1, p. 144, Beyond Budgeting:

how managers can break free from the annual performance trap.
© Optima Management inc. Traduction libre : Optima Management inc. 71
71
Photo : ActivAssistante
Module 6
Pour un
suivi
efficace

72
72

Comment la comptabilité supporte la prise

de décision, la planification et le contrôle
Cadre décisionnel Comptabilité

de gestion de gestion
1. Identifier et parvenir à un consensus sur les Budget – Prévisions
problèmes et les incertitudes • Prévoit les volumes et le mixte de ventes, Représentation financière du
2. Obtenir des informations fiables et et les revenus, les taux, les frais et plan
pertinentes pour analyse dépenses,
3. Prévoir l’avenir, préciser les résultats
escomptés
Comptabilité Enregistrement des transactions
4. Décider et mettre un œuvre une solution de • Documents sources (factures, paiements),
rechange réelles et leur classement dans
quantités vendues, taux
les registres comptables
• Par exemple, augmenter de 4 % les tarifs • Enregistrement dans le journal général et
publicitaires dans les auxiliaires appropriés
Apprentissage
Rapports de performance Déclarer les résultats réalisés

5. Obtenir de la rétroaction sur la
• Compare le réel avec le budgété :
performance et ajuster la décision ou la
• Le mixte de vente et les revenus
dans des rapports de gestion
mise en œuvre si nécessaire • Les niveaux de performance pour les comparer aux prévision
• Les dépenses
73
Connaître le niveau de suivi

Le suivi de la performance s’effectue de la façon suivante :
Budget standard Rolling Forecast
 Comparaison avec le budget et action  Tous les gestionnaires sont impliqués
corrective pour respecter ce qui est
 L’emphase est portée sur les tendances
inscrit au budget
et prévisions
 Les gestionnaires doivent expliquer les
 On se « benchmark » pour comparer
écarts et fournir un budget amendé pour
notre performance et celle des autres et
« terminer » l’année en cours
notre performance passée dans des
situations similaires
74

Faire de la planification en continu et de façon inclusive,

et non un événement annuel imposé par la direction
 Quelles sont nos meilleures

options ?
 Quels sont les avantages et
les inconvénients ?
Contrôler Planifier De quelles ressources avons-
Stratégie/objectif 
nous besoin ?
 Où sommes-nous maintenant ?
 Avec qui devons-nous nous
 Où allons-nous ? coordonner ?
 Comment nous situons-nous par

rapport aux objectifs, aux comparables
et aux meilleures pratiques ? Agir
 Notre stratégie fonctionne-t-elle ?  Se mettre d'accord sur les meilleurs plans
 DEVONS-NOUS CHANGER ?  Appliquer les critères fondamentaux
75
En cours de route : Analyser les écarts

 Repenser les coûts standards établis :
comme nos variables ont changé,
forcément notre façon d’évaluer les
standards pourrait ne plus tenir la
route.
 S’assurer que les variables sauront
expliquer les écarts.
 Les inducteurs de coûts sont-ils encore
valables ?
 Qu’est-ce qui est sous notre contrôle
pour éviter les écarts de performance ?
76

Collaboration et communication entre les gestionnaires

Déploiement de la stratégie jusqu’aux
postes de travail
Ancrage Rémunération
dans le incitative
quotidien adaptative au
contexte
77
Une organisation agile
Une entreprise agile est une

entreprise capable de mobiliser son
intelligence collective pour créer
de la valeur et évoluer de façon
itérative et en continu, avec une
économie de moyens et d’énergie,
et en créant les conditions
d’épanouissement de ses membres.
https://www.hbrfrance.fr/chroniques-experts/2020/05/30140-quest-ce-quune-
entreprise-agile/
78

Caractéristiques d’une organisation agile
 Capacité à épouser le changement

 Boucles de feed-back rapide
 Équipes pluridisciplinaires et
collaboration entre les membres
 Respect et développement personnel
des individus
 Frugalité et durabilité
 Focalisation sur la valeur
https://www.hbrfrance.fr/chroniques-experts/2020/05/30140-
quest-ce-quune-entreprise-agile/
79
Pour un vrai suivi : Un tableau de bord, diantre !
80

Carte stratégique Balanced Scorecard et KPI
Mission et Vision
Quel est notre vision de la compagnie dans le futur ?
Quels sont les objectifs financiers qui nous Financier
permettront d’atteindre notre vision ?
Objectifs Indicateurs Cibles Initiatives

Quels sont les éléments cruciaux pour nos clients sur lesquels Clients
nous devons exceller et qui nous permettront d’atteindre nos résultats financiers ?

Quels sont les processus internes sur lesquels Processus
nous devons exceller pour satisfaire nos clients ?
Internes
Apprentissage
Que devons-nous faire pour développer nos ressources internes
de façon à exceller dans nos processus internes ?
organisationnel
81
Conclusion

82
82

Les meilleures pratiques du Rolling Forecast

o Identifier, analyser et comprendre comment les
facteurs externes et les variables du marché ont un
impact sur la performance de l’organisation
o Rattacher le RF au plan stratégique
o Débuter par un projet pilote qui regroupe seulement

quelques-uns des cadres supérieurs
o Les récompenses sont liées à l’atteinte des objectifs

stratégiques et non au respect des prévisions
o Réduire la complexité en gardant le modèle simple
o Considérer le RF comme étant le plan de base à

respecter
o Une visibilité au-delà de l’année financière actuelle

(+/- six trimestres)
83
Un outil de gestion complémentaire ?
Les prévisions roulantes ne fonctionnent pas de manière

isolée, et leur efficacité dépend des systèmes de contrôle
auxquels elles sont associées. En d'autres termes, les
prévisions en continu doivent être exploitées dans le contexte
d'un ensemble de systèmes de contrôle de gestion.
« Rolling forecasts do not operate in isolation, and its efficiency depends upon what
control systems it is combined with. In other words, rolling forecasts should be
operated within the context of a management control system package. »
- Yuandong Liang and Cheima Ordasi, 2014, Analysing the Rôle of Rolling Forecast from a Broad Perspective, Master Degree Project in Accounting, School of Business, Economics and Law, University of
Gothenburg, Sweden
84

Point de vue de 900 professionnels de la finance, provenant de plus de

50 pays, sur la gestion de la performance
Un cadre de gestion intégrée de la performance doit intégrer ces 3 volets :
Un plan stratégique « Top-Down » Un budget qui permet : Une prévision qui :

qui définit :  suit la performance attendue de
 d'aligner l'allocation des
 les cibles stratégiques ressources l’organisation,
 permet de prendre des décisions
 les grandes activités clés  sur les buts et objectifs
opportunes pour
stratégiques
Pour atteindre les objectifs de  remédier aux écarts par rapport aux
l’organisation. Définis dans l'ensemble de cibles, ou maximiser une
l'organisation. opportunité émergente.
(c) Optima
Source : KPMG and ACCA Thought Leadership Report, 2015, Planning An eyeManagmenent inc.Budgeting and Forecasting, p.
on the future, 85
85
Limites de l’outil ….
N’importe quel outil, si bon soit-il, ne règle pas….
 Une mauvaise planification
 Des communications déficientes
 Des échéanciers, des directives et des rôles
flous
 Un personnel mal formé ou mal adapté VS les
compétences demandées
 Des données erronées
 Des technologies ignorées, non maîtrisées
Culture
86

Une compétence exigée
87
En résumé : Les bénéfices du Rolling Forecast

 On vient briser la « barrière » du calendrier de 12 mois qui nous empêche bien souvent de regarder au-delà de
l’année financière en cours. On peut donc toujours avoir un même horizon d’un nombre de mois égal.
 Réduction du temps de planification et de préparation du « budget » puisque celui-ci se fait en continu.
 Les conflits sont moins nombreux puisque les responsables des départements communiquent entre eux de
façon plus régulière.
 Les décisions d’affaires sont plus « intelligentes » et se prennent plus rapidement puisque les dirigeants ont
l’information sur les marchés plus à jour.
 Sur une période de 15 à 18 mois, les dirigeants ont suffisamment de « visibilité » pour bien gérer la performance
et voir les actions se transformer en résultats concrets.
 Les ressources sont mieux allouées puisqu’elles tiennent compte des changements observés aux réalités du
marché et de ce que vit l’organisation.
 Permet de mieux faire les liens avec les plans d’actions reliés aux orientations stratégiques. On peut donc ajuster
le tir plus facilement.
 Meilleur ajustement avec les fournisseurs en ce sens que la « visibilité » est en symbiose avec nos besoins réels.
88

En conclusion …
Quelques bonnes références bibliographique
 Alexander Jack (2018), Financial Planning & Analysis and Performance Management, Wiley Finance Series, pp 267-302
 Bragg Steven (2013), Accounting best practices, Seventh Edition, Wiley Finance Series, p. 111
 CAM-I, Advanced budgeting Study Group Report for CAM-I, Management Accounting, UK
 Hope J. & Fraser R. (2003), Beyond Budgeting: How Managers can Break Free frome the Annual Performance Trap, Harvard Business School Press,
232 pages
 Horngren et al. (2002), Management and Cost Accounting, Prentice Hall, 964p.
 Implementing a Rolling Forecast: Success Factors and Pitfalls, FP&A Guide Series, Association for Financial Professionals, 2015
 Liang Y. & Ordasi C., (2014), Analysing the Rôle of Rolling Forecast froma a Broad Perspective, Projet de mémoire de maîtrise, School of Business,
Economics and Law, University of Gothenburg, Suède
 Ordre des CPA du Québec (2014) , Référentiel – Meilleures pratiques et pratiques émergentes en gestion de la performance, 2144 pages
 Parmenter David (2016), The financial controller and CFO’s toolkit; lean practices to transform your financial team, Wiley Finance Series, pp. 281-315
 Solomon J.M. (2007), Accounting for World Class Operations; A Practical Guide for Providing Relevant Information in Support of the Lean Enterprise,
WCM Associates, 280 pages, chapitre 12
 Sponem S. et Lambert C., Pratiques budgétaires, rôles et critiques du budget. Perception des DAF et des contrôleurs de gestion, Revue Comptabilité
Contrôle Audit, 2010/1, Tome 16, pp 159 à 194
 Zeller T.L. & Metzger L.M. (2013), Good Bye Traditional Budgetin, Helle Rolling Forecast: Has the Time Come?, American Journal of Business
education, Volume 6, Number 3, May/June 2013
89
En conclusion …
Quelques sites consultés
Autres liens:
 https://www.afponline.org/ideas-inspiration/topics/articles/Details/rolling-forecasts-7-factors-for-success/
 https://www.chefdentreprise.com/Thematique/gestion-finance-1025/Dossiers/boite-outils-pilotage-
financier-entreprise-319829/vous-optiez-rolling-forecast--320442.htm
 https://www.wallstreetprep.com/knowledge/rolling-forecast-best-practices-guide-fpa-professionals/
90

Questions... ?
Pour obtenir des informations additionnelles :

www.optima-mng.com
Luc Godin, FCPA, M.Sc.

lgodin@optima-mng.com
418-874-1001
André Bélanger, CPA, LEAN master

514-486-2236
abelanger@optima-mng.com

91
91

Strategy & Corporate Finance Practice
Memo to the CFO: A

new approach to 2021
budgeting starts now
The financial-planning process for 2021 presents an opportunity
to turn hard-earned lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic into an
enduring exercise in linking strategy to value.
This article is a collaborative effort by the global Strategy & Corporate Finance Practice, including
Ankur Agrawal, Michael Birshan, Christian Grube, Matthew Maloney, and Ishaan Seth.
© Morsa Images/Getty Images
September 2020
For CFOs as for most executives, 2020, assailed by — Stress-test scenarios and assumptions to
the COVID-19 pandemic, has unfolded as a blur of counter uncertainty.
employee-safety and economic shocks. Time and
the demands of putting together a budget for 2021 — Reimagine the business from a zero base to
allow no rest for the weary, however. determine key business drivers.
Our conversations with finance leaders over the — Hold back some spending centrally—as
past six months reveal two contrasting truths contingent resources—to build flexibility and
about the looming budgeting season. After months optionality into budgets.
of improvising, CFOs recognize that they need
real budgets for 2021 to match resources with — Assign finance talent to the highest-priority
strategy. But they also know that the business- areas or topics to prevent burnout.
as-usual budgeting process, with its traditional
inputs and standard approaches, is no longer fit for — Rethink decision making to speed up and
the task. For instance, 43 percent of the 127 CFO debias processes.
respondents we recently surveyed cite the need
to streamline their overall budgeting processes to
react more quickly and efficiently. Meanwhile, 65 Stress-test scenarios and assumptions
percent anticipate more use of rolling forecasts in When kicking off the 2021 budgeting process, CFOs
2021 and beyond.1 will need to revisit and pressure-test the scenarios,
assumptions, and decisions that were made (or not)
The COVID-19 crisis has affected sectors in different during the COVID-19 crisis. That review is critical, as
ways. Even within the retail industry, for instance, different parts of the organization will have similar
some subsectors have fared better than others: the questions related to crisis response and recovery.
grocery subsector is thriving, while the department- Everyone will need to be on the same page. Teams
store subsector is struggling. Common to all in sales and marketing, for instance, must have
businesses, however, is the need for greater speed a common understanding of when the economic
and cost control amid ongoing, unprecedented return and the next normal officially start—and
uncertainty. therefore how to budget for travel and expenses.
Under such circumstances, a “perfect” budget for Finance teams will need to determine which of
2021 may not be achievable—but a better budgeting the economic scenarios they projected actually
process certainly is. The typical budgeting exercise, materialized and then systematically examine how
whether bottom up or top down, can get stuck in various strategic initiatives launched during the
endless negotiations and may not address critical crisis have affected corporate performance (in
concerns about strategy, value creation, or resource revenue, pricing, sales volume, and competition).
allocation. By contrast, radically redesigned and Consider the case of a vertically integrated retailer.
reimagined strategic budgeting and performance- When its brick-and-mortar stores needed to close
management processes can generate bolder in April 2020 as a result of COVID-19, the retailer
discussions that are more in line with strategy, quickly invested in an e-commerce platform and a
deeper insights that can unlock more value, and logistics partnership to facilitate sales. Now that
more agility in resource-allocation decisions. stores have reopened in some regions, the retailer’s
CFO and finance team are revisiting their initial
We see five steps that CFOs can take immediately to assumptions and considering them against real-
remake their budgeting processes for 2021: time factors, such as sales volumes and how the
1
Ankur Agrawal, “A burning platform for digital finance,” LinkedIn, July 30, 2020, linkedin.com.
2 Memo to the CFO: A new approach to 2021 budgeting starts now

Realize it or not, CFOs have been
using zero-based-budgeting principles
to determine what levels of spending
are required to keep the lights on or to
support recovery.
omnichannel strategy has performed over the past returns and risks, while a major hospital chain has
few months, as well as whether current trends will reallocated conference and travel budgets toward
accelerate, decelerate, or stop altogether in 2021. telemedicine and work-from-home capabilities.
It’s also a good time for senior-leadership teams Business leaders’ mindsets changed when they
to perform independent stress tests of companies’ were forced to move resources from areas that
strategic plans. In that way, executives can were once considered untouchable and saw that
determine which bold moves might be pursued those moves resulted in a better prioritization of
(if they haven’t already done so), both organically projects, an improved understanding of fixed versus
and inorganically. Some companies are rethinking variable costs, and a clearer overview of risks and
their M&A strategies and pursuing acquisitions, opportunities. Whether CFOs realize it or not, they
partnerships, and divestitures along their supply have been using zero-based-budgeting principles
chains. Those in more stable industries are looking and approaches to determine what levels of
at launching new products and investing in new spending are truly required to keep the lights on or
technologies and business partnerships in the next to support recovery efforts.
normal. For example, a pharmaceutical company is
investigating digital sales models to complement its As CFOs are preparing their 2021 budgets, many of
traditional go-to-market approaches. them recognize that they are already starting from
zero in some areas. In most companies, for instance,
spending on things such as travel and entertainment
Reimagine the business from a (T&E), internal events, and procurement was greatly
zero base reduced in 2020. Rather than revert to precrisis
Traditionally, business leaders have balked at using ways of working, CFOs should use this opportunity
zero-based budgeting as a means to understand to reset the base in other areas of the organization,
the critical drivers of a business. The approach—in as well.
which expenses must be justified for each budget
period—is too arduous, they have argued, involves In collaboration with business-unit leaders,
too much micromanagement, and poses countless CFOs and finance teams will need to conduct a
other challenges. rigorous review of spending in key areas. What
would that look like? Some companies convene
Many of those objections evaporated, however, in red and blue teams regularly to review proposed
the wake of the COVID-19 crisis—probably because spending. Others use ownership matrices (with
business leaders no longer faced the base decision designated P&L and cost owners) to track and
about whether to shift spending but rather the more review expenditures during budget-creation and
urgent choice of how much and where. For example, monthly performance discussions. For example,
a mining company now force-ranks large capital- the president of one business unit, who has P&L
expenditure projects along a spectrum of potential responsibility for it, also oversees the T&E cost
Memo to the CFO: A new approach to 2021 budgeting starts now 3

category for the whole company. The leader is then company quickly resized its sales and marketing
responsible for challenging P&L owners from other investments, given the decline in elective procedures
business units about their T&E spending: What key as a result of the pandemic. The finance team set
drivers, decisions, and assumptions were built into up a stage gate whereby sales resources could be
their budgets? Together with the CFO and finance added back as demand for elective procedures grew,
team, all owners can examine and determine the as it did in the third quarter of 2020.
T&E cost-management principles that should be
deployed globally. Some companies encourage venture-capital-like
pitches from division and business leaders for
additional funding within the year to fuel growth.
Hold back some spending centrally In those instances, a small team (comprising only
In most companies, budgets are typically fixed for the CEO and the heads of finance and operations)
the year, but in response to the COVID-19 crisis, meets frequently—every month at least—to assess
many businesses have had to be more flexible, trigger points, debate proposals, and decide how
confidently shifting resources as needed to survive. to reallocate funds from the centrally managed
To monitor the situation in real time, for instance, pool. The team has the leverage to determine what’s
they have deployed spending control towers, cash best for the company’s overall strategy and value-
war rooms, and dashboards. And they are using creation efforts, but business-unit leaders also
different kinds of key performance indicators have an opportunity to speak their piece and secure
(KPIs), such as the cash-burn rates of suppliers and maximum resources for their units.
distributors and the growth rate of COVID-19 cases.
CFOs will need to maintain that flexible approach Assign finance talent to the highest-
in 2021. Indeed, they should take a modular priority areas or topics
approach to budgeting, building various options and The COVID-19 pandemic has upended how finance
contingencies into budgets. Budgets should also teams work. Most have had to radically change
include centrally controlled pools of funds (around it: at a faster pace, with shorter reporting cycles,
10 to 15 percent of a company’s total spending) and remotely, all while supporting high-stakes
to be used when certain triggers so indicate—for budgeting and planning decisions. Much of the work
instance, when demand increases in certain was instinctively tackled by small squads that came
countries, there is a drop in customer-retention together to solve immediate, high-priority problems.
rates, and specific product, service, or geographic Everyone was tapped to help, regardless of their
scenarios materialize. The centrally managed pools area of specialization or day job. Often, the solutions
of funds should be focused on supporting variable- involved bootstrap, one-time, ad hoc analyses and
cost categories but may also be released in stages insights—all of which took a toll on the teams.
throughout the year to support capital expenditures,
R&D projects, and hiring initiatives. Looking to 2021 (and beyond), digital tools may take
some of the pressure off finance teams dealing
Under that approach, projects are broken down into with the lingering effects of the COVID-19 crisis
phases, and each phase is subject to a go or no-go and future crises. Finance-team members may still
decision. The overarching goal, of course, is to need to embrace agile work groups, but if they are
allocate resources with more agility so that funding handling modular budgets and operating under a
can more closely mirror rapidly changing industry contingent resourcing approach, the very nature of
and business demands. For example, a healthcare their work will change—from reactive to proactive.

To guard against burnout, CFOs and finance leaders To make changes to daily business operations,
must set priorities appropriately. They should rely finance leaders will also need to link their
on top-down and 80/20 approaches—with clear operational KPIs with strategic plans and provide
directions to staffers, for instance, on expected real-time data about the effect of the COVID-19
analyses, outputs, and timelines. CFOs can set such crisis on their companies. If those things are done
priorities using a driver-based model that breaks well, CFOs can strengthen their positions within
down the P&L (from revenue to cash) and links it to C-suites and emerge as core thought partners to
operational KPIs. Such a model can give finance business leaders.
leaders some perspective on what really matters
and the topics, projects, and initiatives that will Most important, CFOs and finance teams must be
require finance teams’ immediate time and attention. transparent about the new and different kinds of
The model can also illuminate the opportunities KPIs that will be most relevant in their 2021 budgets
CFOs have to accelerate positive trends and offset and financial plans. Budgets are typically the bases
negative trends. for setting corporate and individual performance
targets, with employees’ incentives linked to
In all cases, it is important for CFOs to lead companies’ ability to meet certain financial targets.
with empathy. It is critical to establish clear Under the current economic uncertainties, that
communications plans—for instance, scheduling traditional approach may be counterproductive.
weekly meetings and “pulse checks” to gauge how In fact, many CFOs we have spoken with say they
teams and projects are faring. are considering linking at least some part of their
incentive payments to individual outcomes (that is,
to employees’ ability to execute specific strategic
Rethink decision making initiatives) rather than basing incentives fully on
For 2021, especially, it will be critical to get buy-in corporate outcomes.
from entire leadership teams on high-level strategic
objectives, projected economic scenarios, cost- Again, there are ways that companies can speed up
saving targets, resource-reallocation targets, and and debias their decision-making processes and
financial plans. CFOs will need to explain why the discussions. During the crisis, for instance, some
standard budgeting process is, in many respects, companies have replaced large all-hands-on-deck
moot and how, for 2021 and beyond, finance teams videoconferences with “wartime councils” in which
will be focused on options, agile reinvestment, and smaller groups of senior stakeholders gather once
so on. and act rapidly. For example, the monthly business-
CFOs and finance teams must be

transparent about the new kinds of
KPIs that will be most relevant in their
2021 budgets and financial plans.
Memo to the CFO: A new approach to 2021 budgeting starts now 5

cycle review at a company had turned into an The first task is to review previous scenarios and
onerous task. Analysts would spend days preparing stress-test the strategic plan (including any big
hundreds of bespoke analyses and slides for moves) for 2021, and the second is to begin the top-
marathon meetings with the senior-leadership team. down process of translating the strategic plan into
But the backward-looking materials often raised a budget. Those tasks can be managed in parallel,
more questions than they answered, and discussions but having a cross-functional perspective will be
were often rambling and unfocused. Everyone’s time critical for ensuring that the budgeting process is
was being wasted. In the wake of the COVID-19 crisis, comprehensive and that everyone buys into the
when rapid responses were at a premium, the team approach—especially important when significant
knew that it needed to redesign the process radically. shifts in strategy and resources are involved.
It did so by defining a clear meeting objective at
the outset and dividing the monthly report into two In fact, in those areas in which radical changes
sets of standardized pages: one set on trends (sent are anticipated—closing a facility, for instance, or
as a preread) and one set on the highest-priority building an e-commerce platform—CFOs may
variances of risks and opportunities. After the also convene smaller teams to perform cleansheet
process redesign, the monthly discussions became analyses. In addition, they could schedule several
much more effective, focusing on relevant business cross-functional budgeting workshops between
units, budget exceptions, outstanding questions, now and the end of the year to foster healthy debate
data required to answer questions, relevant KPIs, and, ultimately, gain agreement on inevitable
and comparisons against actuals. resourcing trade-offs.
Getting started
By reimagining budgeting models, CFOs can help The past year has been challenging; 2021 will
develop strategic plans that look and feel much probably present its own thorny issues. It’s a unique
different than in previous years. The redesigned moment for the CFO, and a crucial transformation
plans will include multiple scenarios that inform project awaits. So what’s the plan? How will you do
strategic direction, zero-based approaches things differently? How will you translate lessons
to important business areas and select cost learned during the first months of the crisis to
categories, centrally controlled pools of funds to improve the finance function in the longer term?
be deployed flexibly, and monthly performance The goals should be to focus on big moves linked to
discussions that are focused on creating value strategy and to maintain a through-cycle mindset.
and impact. After all, the companies that invest now in resilience
and sustainability are the ones we will all still be
To get started, CFOs should assemble a cross- talking about in the long term.
functional team to help accomplish two key tasks.
Ankur Agrawal is a partner in McKinsey’s New York office, where Matthew Maloney is an associate partner and Ishaan Seth is
a senior partner; Michael Birshan is a senior partner in the London office; and Christian Grube is a partner in the Munich office.
The authors wish to thank Kapil Chandra, Ajay Dhankhar, Tim Koller, Hugues Lavandier, Werner Rehm, and Robert Uhlaner for
their contributions to this article.
Designed by McKinsey Global Publishing

Copyright © 2020 McKinsey & Company. All rights reserved.

AFP® GUIDE TO
Implementing a Rolling Forecast:
Success Factors and Pitfalls
FP&A Guide Series
Issue 9
AFP® GUIDE TO
Implementing a Rolling Forecast:
Success Factors and Pitfalls
FP&A Guide Series
Contents
A Shifting Landscape 1
The Benefits of a Rolling Forecast 3

Practitioner case study: A.P. Møller Maersk Group 6
Critical Success Factors 7

Practitioner case study: Euroclear 8
Practitioner case study: Direct Energy 10
Practitioner case study: National Retailer 11
Ten Common Pitfalls 11
Conclusion 13
Introduction
The world moves faster and the economy has become less predictable.
In such an environment, companies are realizing that the traditional fiscal
year-end forecast has become less useful. Only seeing through to the end
of the year leaves the company exposed to threats, such as price changes,
volatile stock markets, regulatory changes and currency fluctuations. It
is a process more akin to meeting the budget than foretelling the future
direction of the company; the forecast becomes more about whether the
company will hit its targets versus the reality of where the company and
its market will be going forward and the steps management can take to
ensure its success.
For FP&A, an annual forecast provides no means of adding substantive
value to the conversation taking place at the strategic level of the
organization. In contrast, a rolling forecast allows FP&A professionals
to play a leading role in strategic discussions and communications by
providing management with a range of possibilities that are dependent on
market conditions or the actions of competitors. The benefits they provide
increase lead time for senior management, thus allowing them to make
important decisions on how to allocate key resources in order to drive
continued profitability.
AFP GUIDE: Implementing a Rolling Forecast: Success Factors and Pitfalls
A Shifting Landscape
The typical financial forecast horizon today still doesn’t Peck said. “Unfortunately the methods, tools, and
extend beyond the current fiscal year, according to processes most companies rely on today are no
Philip Peck, vice president of the Peloton Group. longer sufficient. Most organizations still rely on
“Emphasis on the near-term planning horizon, where the traditional budgeting process to support many
decisions focus on meeting quarterly or year-end business requirements and related planning activities,
targets to satisfy external stakeholders, often outweighs including target setting, detailed operational
longer-term considerations, including assessing the planning, cost control, resource allocation, capital
impact of how decisions today can positively or spending, and incentive compensation. Yet long gone
negatively impact longer-term performance,” said are the days when a standard, rigid annual budgeting
Peck. “This mindset also often limits the attention and planning process steered the business with
directed toward constantly exploring, understanding, only predictable and minimal budgeting changes
and creating action plans around future competitive throughout the calendar year,” he said.
risks and opportunities.” While most organizations update their operational
Another critical challenge to the process involves plans periodically and provide updated financial
the level of G/L account detail used to generate forecasts, “these processes are fraught with numerous
the forecast: “Many organizations are essentially fundamental issues,” Peck cautioned.
forecasting at the same atomic level of detail that
is used during the annual budget cycle,” said Peck.
“Forecasting at a low level of detail directly leads to Increasingly, senior management is
long cycle times, manually intensive activities, and looking to FP&A for answers that go
much higher levels of effort.” beyond the fiscal year-end, and “we
From an overall forecast purpose and philosophy
perspective, there is often confusion between see more companies adopting a rolling
competing pressures to meet near-term budget forecast,” said EPM Transformation
targets vs. providing accurate, high-quality forecast Associate Principal Sholape Kolawole
estimates. The question becomes: How do to balance
of The Hackett Group.
management’s performance expectations with a
realistic, pragmatic view of the future?
Another aspect that makes the traditional forecast Increasingly, senior management is looking to
less useful is that a typical forecast often gets FP&A for answers that go beyond the fiscal year-
disconnected from real operational planning; it tends end, and “we see more companies adopting a rolling
to be purely a financial exercise with limited input forecast,” said EPM Transformation Associate
from the people closest to the operational drivers Principal Sholape Kolawole of The Hackett Group.
impacting current and future performance, according A recent analysis of benchmarks performed by
to Peck. “From a resource allocation perspective, many The Hackett Group showed that 33% of companies
forecast processes offer minimal ability to allocate and intend to implement a best practice rolling
reallocate resources as this process typically occurs forecasting over the next few years. Another 22% are
once a year during the annual budget cycle. The bank planning to implement a version of a forecast that
is only open once a year,” said Peck. “They also often extends beyond 12 months, which in essence is a
heavily rely on disparate Excel spreadsheets and black form of a rolling forecast. “Combined, we see 55%
box algorithms without common expectations around of companies surveyed planning to shift to a rolling
key business drivers, forecast assumptions, and the forecast,” Kolawole said. “Companies are realizing
underlying forecast modeling logic. that there are a lot of benefits particularly in this
“The complexity, uncertainty and volatility of environment of competitive pressure and fast-moving
today’s business environment demands a more markets. They understand the value of seeing farther
agile, dynamic, continuous planning process,” out,” he said.
www.AFPonline.org ©2015 Association for Financial Professionals, Inc. All Rights Reserved 1
Added Mitch Max, a partner at BetterVu, a basis for an effective allocation of resources and a
performance and risk management practice consultancy, more intelligent prioritized view of the business.”
“As a general rule, there’s a lot more activity in the past Some projects may not produce a return within
five years and movement toward rolling forecasting,” the year but are valuable nonetheless. “A forecast that
said Max. While he’s been involved in Beyond spans beyond one year can capture those results at
Budgeting “from the get-go,” full implementation of the right level of detail,” said Axson. “Companies
the Beyond Budgeting framework has been very slow to also recognize that predictive ability declines the
catch on in North America due to what Max describes as further out they try and forecast. Simply forecasting
“an inherent resistance to giving up the budget. every period in the same level of detail doesn’t
“Rolling forecasting is a way to coexist with the produce reliable results.”
budget that still allows for agility and change, while According to Steve Morlidge, director at Satori
de-emphasizing the amount of effort that goes into Partners and co-author of “Future Ready: How to
creating the annual budget,” said Max. “The process Master Business Forecasting,” people are moving
is a little more pragmatic than the European ideals toward driving the financial forecast from the
that spawned the Beyond Budgeting framework. I operational forecast. In operations, managers already
believe this will continue to evolve.” look beyond the current fiscal year because it’s driven
“What I’ve seen among our users is that there’s by the supply planning lead times, e.g., material,
more of a resolution to have a rolling forecast production schedules, and capacity planning. The
using a planning solution,” said Pras Chatterjee, mentality is already established. It’s a relatively easy
senior director of product marketing for Enterprise next step to a rolling forecast. “Also operations have a
Performance Management at SAP. “One of the key strong theoretical mindset. They recognize the logical
challenges is the usage of the rolling forecast,” he reason that a year-end forecast doesn’t work; they’re
added. Finance wants to implement the forecast to not tied to the financial year in the same way,” he said.
gain better insight into the future, but there needs “Improving the traditional budgeting process,
to be more adoption across the entire enterprise to enabling more dynamic resource allocation and
embrace the results. “Realistically, most corporations reallocation, reducing planning and forecasting cycle
look at the immediate calendar year and year-end times, providing ‘what-if’ modeling and analysis
target. People don’t care about the rolling forecast. around key business drivers, and enhancing forecasting
For the rolling forecast to affect business change capabilities all go hand in hand,” Morlidge said.
there needs to be a cultural shift,” stressed Chatterjee. Peck acknowledged that a lot of companies suffer
“No amount of technology can resolve that.” from year-end tunnel vision. As the financial year
“There are a number of factors that are driving comes closer, they shrink their forecast horizon
greater interest in rolling forecasts,” said David down to just those few months remaining. “If your
Axson, managing director for CFO and enterprise forecast only goes to the end of the fiscal year, your
value at Accenture Strategy. “One is that there’s no vision becomes increasingly near-sighted until almost
reason why companies should arbitrarily tie their totally blind by the end of the period,” Peck said.
forecast time horizon to their fiscal year so that “What’s worse is that everyone quickly realizes that
at the end of the first quarter they forecast nine the entire exercise is not about forecasting the right
months into the future, but at the end of the third numbers. Instead they recognize that the entire
quarter [they] only [forecast] three months,” he process has become about validating whether you are
said. “Business cycles are not tied to the accounting going to hit the year-end targets.”
calendar. The time horizon has to change. Some When that happens, people stop telling the truth
companies do a rolling forecast every 90 days, and and start telling management what it wants to
some do it every month. Some forecast out 12 hear. “Many times this results in an exercise that is
months and some forecast out 24 months, depending worthless. It merely revalidates the drive to hit the
upon the decision -making time horizon. Whatever targets. This leads directly back to sandbagging and a
you do,” he said, “the forecast needs to provide the process that is all about obfuscation,” Peck said.
2 ©2015 Association for Financial Professionals, Inc. All Rights Reserved www.AFPonline.org
The question companies should ask themselves is: are moving away from that kind of forecast because
what’s the real problem they’re trying to solve? What are they’ve seen that it doesn’t make much sense.”
they trying to do with their forecast? “The forecasting “Partly,” he said, “that’s driven by the environment
process needs to be about seeing forward. You really and greater volatility. Partly it’s driven by a changing
need to revamp the management control process,” mindset that recognizes that while the calendar year
said Peck. The forecast process should be focused on end is an important reporting milestone, it shouldn’t
optimization and driving results. The forecast process constrain the way that the business is planned.”
is not about forecast accuracy. “It’s about helping you “The main difference between a traditional and a
change the activities to change the results. The forecast rolling forecast is the number of periods remaining,”
helps communicate what the business is about and what said Larysa Melnychuk, director of the London
can be done to optimize results,” said Peck. FP&A Club and AFP consultant. “In the traditional
As opposed to the calendar-driven budget that approach, the forecast goes out only to year end and,
focuses on a one-year fixed time horizon, a rolling therefore, the number of months to forecast decrease
forecast framework reflects an extended time horizon as the year progresses. In a rolling forecast, it may
beyond the current calendar year where operating and always be five periods forward. It’s always the same
financial plans are updated on a frequent basis. The number of months or quarters rolling forward.”
actual length of the time horizon varies depending on Therefore, a rolling forecast expands planning
a number of factors that include the industry, business horizons and improves the quality of forecasting
cycle, product life-cycle, ability to predict and influence and decision-making. The traditional approach
the future, and several other factors. A company in a doesn’t give companies any flexibility. In November,
very dynamic business climate may have a continuous companies see ahead only one month. Next year,
12-month rolling forecast, while a company that is they start from scratch.
capital intensive and has a longer decision-making “The rolling forecast expands the visibility,”
cycle with multi-decade projects could have a much Melnychuk said. “We’re basically prepared to act on
longer planning and forecast horizon. the forecast. It puts corporates in a better position
to make better decisions. Rolling forecasts improve
forecast accuracy, reduce timing of the planning
The Benefits of a Rolling Forecast process and therefore improve decision-making and
One of the basic differences between a traditional profitability of the company,” she said.
forecast and the rolling forecast, according to According to Max, when most people think about
Kolawole of The Hackett Group, is the horizon. A forecasting, their main reference point is the annual
traditional forecast covers the entire calendar year, budget. “People operate as if that’s a forecast. They
January to December, and is handled monthly or haven’t necessarily adjusted their mindset,” he said.
quarterly. With a rolling forecast, companies extend For companies that want to adopt a monthly
the forecast “beyond the wall,” and the right time rolling forecast, a very different approach is required.
horizon differs by industry. It can be 18 months People don’t have time to repeat a budget process
or 24 months, as dictated by the volatility of the 12 times a year. As organizations squeeze finance
business. It can be run quarterly or monthly. “It resources, it is harder and harder to add new
breaks the barrier of the fiscal year,” said Kolawole. capabilities. “For most finance organizations, by
According to Morlidge, the biggest source of the time the team gets through month-end close,
confusion lies between the forecasting horizon and they have, at most, two weeks slack time to prepare
forecasting cycles (the frequency of reforecasting). for the next close. People don’t have long cycles to
“By my definition, a rolling forecast maintains a devote to a full consultative, bottoms-up build of a
constant horizon, be it 12 months or 18 months,” forecast. A different approach is needed,” he said.
Morlidge said. “You always look that many months A true rolling forecast looks beyond the fiscal
ahead; it’s not forecasting to the end of the calendar year, which is critical in order to shift from a
year.” According to this forecasting expert, “People budget-based model to an actuals-based approach.
The most common approach is to look 18 months If a company bases its financial planning on the
out. “You need to have a process that is agile and calendar year, it would have four quarters of actuals
self-running, based on key drivers,” Max explained. and five quarters forecasted out into the future.
“The key benefit of a rolling forecast is that it enables “After a year or two, we often see these companies
management to make intelligent decision quickly shift to a 6-quarter rolling forecast,” said Player.“If
about what’s going on in the business. “ you look at such an organization mid-year, you find
The biggest benefit of a rolling forecast is related to that it has two quarters of actuals and five quarters
the lead time required for making business decisions, forecasted out, with the first two completing the
according to Morlidge. “The reason why you forecast current year and three quarters forecasted out into
is that there’s a lag between making a decision and the the upcoming year.” Many organizations want to
impact,” he said. “It’s just like driving a car; you have see the upcoming year as soon as possible, so they
to look ahead at least as far as the stopping distance, forecast a sixth quarter. Once you start forecasting
otherwise you risk a crash. This is the theoretical five rolling quarters, it’s easy to shift to six, which
justification for rolling forecasts: in order to properly gives you greater visibility, according to Player.
manage performance, you need forward visibility that “How far each organization looks depends on the
matches the length of time it takes for any decision to company and its business,” Player said, such as how
be translated into results.” fast the organization can change direction or turn, as
“It doesn’t matter whether the forecast is produced well as how fast and how often things in the business
using driver-based methods or not; the principle remain environment change. “We’ve seen monthly forecast
the same,” said Morlidge. Rolling forecasting does not updates, quarterly forecasts, and ad hoc updates.
demand a particular technique, but driver-based methods Frequency of update depends on how fast things are
have some benefits. “From a common-sense standpoint, changing,” he said.
the farther you look, the less knowledgeable you are, so
precision is neither necessary nor desirable,” he explained.
“Consequently, it makes no sense to have a highly “The most common approach is to forecast
granular forecast. Also, if you use a rapid cycle time, six quarters out. This way, by mid-year
month or quarter, you need relatively light processes,
there’s a full fiscal year outlook for the next
which also drives people toward driver-based forecasts.”
“Using rolling forecasts also allows you to more year, which can help seed the budget for
dynamically allocate resources, i.e., redeploy capital the coming year without duplicating
to where the returns are,” said Steve Player, managing efforts and starting from scratch.”
partner of the Player Group, and North American
program director of the Beyond Budgeting Roundtable
(BBRT), and co-author of the book, “Future Ready: Added Accenture’s Axson: “The most common
How to Master Business Forecasting.” “Its focus should approach is to forecast six quarters out. This way, by
be about creating a more agile organization.” mid-year there’s a full fiscal year outlook for the next
“One of my biggest concerns is with organizations year, which can help seed the budget for the coming
shifting to rolling forecasts too quickly,” said Player. year without duplicating efforts and starting from
“While many organizations are excited about using scratch,” he said. “You don’t want those processes to be
rolling forecasts to eliminate budgets, they don’t think separate. You want them integrated, organized, built on
it through. They need to ask themselves: how does common metrics and the same level of detail.”
moving to a rolling forecast relate to our target setting In fact, said Player, “companies don’t need to update
and action plans? What are we really changing, and everything included in their forecast detail every time they
how do we expect behavior to change as a result?” do a forecast update. More critical and more volatile items
It’s most common to see is an organization start typically need to be reviewed much more frequently.
by adopting a 5-quarter rolling forecast. Using five However, if you have items that do not change very
quarters allows companies to see into the next year. much, don’t waste time on what’s not critical.”
“From my perspective, the rolling forecast process According to SAP’s Chatterjee, “One of the things
provides significant value by enabling agility, we often see, with many customers who are new to
responsiveness, and improved decision-making such planning solutions and are working with Excel or
that organizations can continually adapt and respond an older solution—whether it’s SAP or one of its
to changing business conditions,” said Peck. “The competitors, is that they can stop acting as aggregators
rolling forecast provides a consistent forward-looking of data and be financial leaders.” One of their primary
view across the horizon where companies have goals is to be a contributor to the business, to act
better visibility around the issues and opportunities as a steward of where the organization is headed.
ahead of the curve and can adapt, course correct, or “Without a rolling forecast to provide that guidance,
change direction as needed. With the rolling forecast, finance cannot act as a strategic partner.”
companies are far better equipped to revisit strategic “Best in class companies clearly have a rolling
and operational tactics in light of new business forecast,” Chatterjee said. “Many clients that are
scenarios and can dynamically align resources initial adopters of the system and are moving from
accordingly. The question they face is: What actions legacy solutions do not move to a rolling forecast as a
can I take today (and tomorrow) to adjust to the fact first step, however. “First, they work on automatically
that performance is not turning out how I expected? aggregating data to make their day-to-day job easier,
It means they can do course correcting now—it’s the according to ChatterjeeNext, they use predicting
more dynamic aspect of continuous planning and analytics and rolling forecasting to look forward into
optimized resource allocation.” the business. “The true financial analyst sits in the
A critical guiding principle at the foundation of front of the boat vs. the back of the boat (analogy
a well-designed forecast and reforecast process is that Brian Kalish used). When you adopt a culture
that the forecast output per se is not the ultimate of rolling forecasts you have the ability to act on that
objective, according to Peck. “The real objective is forecast and steer the business,” Chatterjee said.
to leverage the forecast outputs to make decisions “Having that forward view allows you to plan
and take action based on the best estimate of the business better,” said Chatterjee. “Traditionally,
your anticipated future financial performance.” companies create a five-year strategic plan in July of
In the near-term, it can mean quickly realigning where they want the business to be. That gives them
resources and capacity with fluctuating demand a clear target. However, that plan does not cascade
to help achieve current-year financial objectives. into the annual plan that’s typically handled on a
Medium-term actions could include providing bottoms-up approach, which is very time consuming
enhanced guidance to external stakeholders to and takes place between July and October. It’s
proactively manage market expectations. And longer- very ground-up level. The rolling forecast doesn’t
term strategic actions could address competitive need to be a granular processes. As a result, finance
positioning, internal capabilities, and revisiting the professionals can spend more time doing strategy
core operating model, according to Peck. rather than data aggregation,” Chatterjee said.
A well designed rolling forecast process should It all comes down to the scope of the process.
provide the key inputs and financial baseline for most Organizations might be challenged by too high a
all other planning processes, including long-range level of granularity, but forecasting is not an exact
plans, strategic planning, target setting, initiative science. No one can predict the future. After all, who
development and prioritization, capital planning, and could have predicted the direction of the dollar, or
the annual budget, according to Peck. “The rolling oil prices? Companies that have a rolling forecast in
forecast can seed the budget and significantly reduce place can act very quickly on what’s happening, and
the time and effort required to complete the annual include KPIs that interplay to allow them to give
budget. In essence, organizations can have continuous guidance immediately. In this fast changing climate,
forecasting providing the most realistic estimate of CFOs want the guidance today—not three days
future performance based on the best external and from now. Making them wait is not going to add to
internal information that we have,” he said. the value of finance.
Practitioner case study: pre-approval system for which investments fit

A.P. Møller Maersk Group into the strategy at the time. When it comes to
Denmark-based A.P. Møller Maersk Group launching a project, we ask: is this still relevant?
began its life in 1904 as a shipping company It is easier to answer with a project. The bank is
and has since grown into a $50 billion open throughout the year,” said Schot.
conglomerate with worldwide operations Target setting and performance are handled
and 150,000 employees. It has grown beyond on an annual basis. “We try to make to make
containerized shipping into adjacent industries, relative KPIs and still stay current,” said Schot.
including ports and container trains, as well “If your forecast changes a lot throughout
as oil exploration and oil services. “We have the year, we look at relative measures. EBITA
a very diverse portfolio,” said Matthijs Schot, margin compared to peers. If the market is
head of performance analysis. For the most producing a 5% return, we would drive to do
part, the business is very asset heavy, with the 5% above our peers.”
exception of its logistics business. “The advantage we have is that the
“What we have done with the business budgeting process at A.P. Møller Maersk Group
units is make them individual businesses. was such a difficult process that involved rollup
They are separately listed. The group is a thin from legal entities and very detailed processes.
layer above the business units,” said Schot. The CFOs of the BUs complained about the
“Treasury and investor relations is handled resource requirements and the limited value
at the group level,” he added. “For the most of the process, so the solution we offered is a
part, the business units are very autonomous.” rolling forecast,” Schot said. “It’s much higher
However, the allocation of capital is handled level and quarterly. There was a need and
centrally. “We have three or four processes in willingness to change the old process, which
our business where we have quarterly rolling was cumbersome,” he said. “A month after you
forecasts, target setting from an FP&A point of finished it, things had changed.”
view and capital allocation.” “It also helped us that we had executive
The company began performing a rolling sponsorship,” he said. “Also, the effort matched
forecast in 2010. Prior to that, they were the point where the organization was at the time.
doing budgets on an annual basis with small The company has just transitioned from a family-
adjustments, first at the group level, and now owned to a public company. This rolling forecast
handled at the business level and incorporated and decentralization of decision-making was a
into their regions across the world. “It’s quite good fit. There was momentum,” Schot said.
a challenging process but a good one,” Schot “The other thing that helped us is that
said. “Especially with the dynamics of the we started in 2010 after the financial crisis,”
changing business environment in the oil Schot said. “There was a lot of volatility in the
business. It helps us deal with that volatility.” environment. A static forecast provided little
The company’s rolling forecast is reviewed value. The container trade was in a constant
quarterly. Each business unit submits a P&L, 10 percent growth market. Everybody had
cash flow statement, balance sheet, and seven 10% growth. The 2008 crisis caused growth to
KPIs. From each data set, they extract the suddenly stop. People realized that the static
4-month actuals and 4-month forward. The data forecast no longer made sense.”
is then compiled into one report, which is used On a quarterly basis, the company performs
by the Group CFO and CFOs of business units, a 4-quarter forecast. “We try to stay away
for looking at the trends of performance of last from the calendar year,” he said. “We in FP&A
four quarters and expectations for the next four. look at the last four quarters, and we process
Given the nature of its long-term asset five quarters. We also do a like-to-like forecast
business, A.P. Møller Maersk Group’s capital comparison: we take the last four quarters and
allocation is done on a 5-year basis. However, compare them to first four in order to do a
the process is dynamic. “When we go quick variance analysis.”
through the process, we don’t earmark a FP&A consolidates the information from
bag of money for next year. It’s based on a eight business units to create the rolling
forecast, thereby providing guidance regarding driver-based forecast,” said Axson. It’s sometimes a
opportunities in the following year. “It’s also a difficult analytics process but often provides the best
form of performance management; it allows basis for a good rolling forecast.
the business to see how they’re performing Companies need to also keep an eye on the drivers
and what the outlook is,” said Schot.
they’ve identified to make sure that they haven’t
The assessment of actual targets and the
changed. For example, years ago in the mobile phone
assessment of the performance of the BUs
industry, the time people spent on the phone directly
is each done on a different time period. It’s
shorter for the container business than for the
affected how much they paid each month for the
oil business, where projects may span 10-15 service. With the introduction of a flat rate for service,
years. “We match the targets to the nature of the variable payment went away and hence the driver
the business,” said Schot. of revenue was no longer based on minutes of use.
“The benefit of a rolling forecast is that you According to Peck, the foundation of a good rolling
get a fresh view every quarter,” Schot said. forecast is a robust, driver-based modeling framework
“It gives you the ability to see the impact and capability. Driver-based planning uses operational
of current changes. If you set up a budget, driver models to predict financial results. These
it’s outdated a month or two after you models are essentially equations that represent the
start. A rolling forecast allows you to make mathematical relationships between key operational
adjustments. It allows you to be more flexible.” drivers (e.g., volume, rates, utilization, conversion
ratios, and brand awareness) and anticipated financial
outcomes. Focusing on the operational drivers enables
Critical Success Factors an organization to understand, plan around, and
Experts list the following two factors as critical to the
influence the critical elements that have the greatest
success of a rolling forecasting program.
impact on financial performance.
• Align the forecast with the market and the “Instead of forecasting the same atomic G/L
company’s industry dynamics. The more volatile account level of detail typically used for the budget,
the market, the more frequent the forecast and the forecast should focus on the key operational
the shorter the time horizon. For example, airlines business drivers impacting business performance,”
may need a shorter time horizon than stable said Peck. By focusing on the “critical few” instead
manufacturers. “The volatility and the market of the trivial many, driver models enable an efficient
dynamics should dictate how far out companies and far less cumbersome forecast process focused
should look and how frequently they should on the business levers most relevant for analysis and
forecast,” said Kolawole. decision-making. Some organizations have taken their
driver-based models to the next level by incorporating
• Implement a top-down, driver-based model.
unstructured data to further enhance visibility into
“The last thing you want to do is increase the
both external and internal drivers of demand, supply,
burden on the folks doing the forecast,” Kolawole
revenue, cost, competitive and consumer behavior,
said. Employing a driver-based approach is one
and other key business elements, according to Peck.
way to avoid this. The idea is to really figure
A key benefit received from leveraging a driver-
out what moves the needle, then make sure that
based rolling forecast framework is the ability to
there’s a connection between that and the forecast.
complete a very robust “what-if” analyses and scenario
This can be handled by a Center of Excellence,
planning based on changing the underlying driver
with business unit (BU) representation to help
value assumptions. Given the nature of the driver
figure out the right assumptions. It can go a long
models and the power of modern enabling technology,
way toward simplifying the process.
companies can generate hundreds of scenarios, explore
“To succeed, most companies that turn to rolling and understand the characteristics around each
forecasts move away from the atomic level of scenario, and then develop action and contingency
standardized forecasting by focusing on a business plans accordingly. “Over time, the driver model
algorithms can be refined through experience and different internal departments that contribute:
advanced statistical analysis,” said Peck. the client facing group (operations); the IT
“Building a driver-based forecast is the real group (because of its importance, they do
game changer,” concurred Max. “However, it’s not zero-based forecasting bottoms-up three times
commonly understood.” A lot of companies forecast per year); and the support divisions, which
revenue and think of it as a driver. Revenue is a result, include finance, marketing and HR. For the first
not a cause. The question is what really changed in forecast, all the divisions do a classic bottoms-
up forecast, as well as the budget.
the business activity that will impact revenue, expense,
“In terms of revenue drivers, the company
the balance sheet and cash flow. “Recently, I’ve been
looks at markers like the number of transactions,
looking at two classes of models for driver-based
market outlook, and type of transactions,” Gozzi
forecasting,” said Max. “A standard model is purely explained. “On the cost side, headcount is one
transactional, such as retail sales transactions. The of the most important drivers—60 percent of
other approach involves models that look at the future the cost is headcount driven,” he said. To this
based on an underlying book of business,” said Max. end, “We have a payroll model to collect data
For example, finance companies might look at and model it. Different parameters based on
loans that are being brought in. The loans are assets inflation, etc. for each country in which we
with a life cycle associated with it, be it three years operate, driven by regulatory constraints and
or six months. At the end of the life cycle, there is the level of competition.
termination activity. “You have a baseline of activity “On the IT side, the big drivers are the projects
and assets that produce revenue and, of course, incur we embark on and our contracts with the
European entities for application development.
expenditures,” Max explained.
These mandates are based on assumptions and
Another example is health care providers with chronic
guidelines. We estimate the rate: that’s another
patients. “There’s a life cycle of care that begins when the
important driver,” Gozzi said.
patient enters the network. He or she gets treatment over In regard to infrastructure, the rolling forecast
the life of their illness,” he said. “You can build retention is basically the capital base and depreciation.
curves around that by using a combination of analytics “We have a lot of maintenance costs for
and data and look at the patient’s history, i.e., what are our infrastructure,” said Gozzi. “We make
the attributes and what can we learn from the past to assumptions about the cost of support using
project what the volumes will be going forward, and how contacts. It’s very directly driven by outstanding
that does affect revenue and costs?” support contracts.”
When implementing the new forecasting
approach, Euroclear didn’t encounter any
Practitioner case study: Euroclear substantive obstacles, according to Gozzi. It
Euroclear, the financial services company, is a was mostly a question of the maturity of each
platform that settles different transactions. It’s division. IT was already very mature and had
a very risk averse and stable business. Starting the processes in place. Others, like operations,
in 2012, the management committee asked to needed to formalize their approach a little
look beyond the current fiscal year, and the more regarding what is likely to happen next
company began running a rolling 18-month year. “Once they understood why we do it, they
forecast, according to Jose Gozzi, manager of gained the skills,” Gozzi said.
FP&A. “The forecast is refreshed three times “The forecast is our GPS; it provides direction
a year. The third forecast also covers the of where we’re going,” he explained. “What’s
budget for the next fiscal year. The forecast important is to see increase in new business, and
includes the lines of the P&L that cover revenue to understand how that will affect cost and keep
for the group, as well as all different costs: in line with revenue, anticipate that in advance
administrative and direct,” Gozzi said. and mitigate that increase to achieve greater
It also covers the various business entities profits. Without the farther outlook, it’s difficult
(12 legal entities). Additionally, there are three to take action and drive the business.”
Additional success factors include: • Link to strategic and operational decisions.

Outputs of each rolling forecast cycle should be
• Take it in stages. “We don’t advocate a big bang used to inform and influence ongoing strategic
approach,” Kolawole said. “A staged rollout management and operational performance
is generally advisable, selecting one or a few reviews. Risks and opportunities identified
business units to start. Then you go from there. during a rolling forecast should trigger “what-
Balance process discipline with responsiveness,” if ” analyses and scenario planning around the
he said. Finally, it’s important to maintain key business drivers, according to Peck. “As
process discipline, but also be prepared to do appropriate, organizations can revisit their
off-cycle forecasting and have the capability to strategic assumptions and initiatives, and then
respond to changes in market conditions by make changes to their strategy execution plans.
reforecasting when something happens off-cycle. In conjunction with the strategic performance
• Alter your compensation method. “If you tie assessment and action plans, go-forward
goal-setting targets to equal forecasting targets operational tactics and plans can dynamically
and link compensation to reaching those targets, change based on new insights gleaned from the
you will find many managers doing a lot of rolling forecast. This closed-loop, continuous
sandbagging,” said Player. “The key is to separate planning framework enables organizations to
target setting from forecasting. Targets define revisit strategy throughout the year, adapt and
where your organization wants to go; they are make course corrections where needed, and align
aspirational. But the forecasting process should resources quickly and efficiently,” said Peck.
not be aspirational. Instead, forecasts should be • Integrate with the operational planning
realistic projections of where you really think processes. “The rolling forecast process should be
you’re heading. It needs to be a realistic, not an tightly integrated with core operational processes,”
optimistic, picture.” Peck said. “In many organizations, these core
operational processes already incorporate a rolling,
• Decide who should be involved. “It’s very
continuous planning horizon where the rolling
important to decide who participates in the
financial forecast process can leverage the outputs
forecasting process,” said Melnychuk. “Good
of these existing processes. A good example are
rolling forecasting should be participative, but
the S&OP processes used by manufacturing
the balance is important: who should be the key
organizations, where demand, supply, capacity,
participants?” The people who have a role to play
and financial plans are all optimized as part of an
in operations need to be trained. “When they’re
integrated business planning process.”
not, it creates a lot of problems,” she said. “It’s
easy to centralize the process in FP&A and train • Direct ownership and accountability.
the group rather than a lot of business people.” According to Peck, “The goal of a forecast is
With a driver-based model, you can involve to provide the best estimate of expected future
less people—25-30 is too many, according to performance—not create arbitrary numbers that
Melnychuk. Businesses are different. Compared fill a potential gap to meet the original budget
to static forecasting, companies typically have a target. For this process to be successful,” he
lot of detail and involve a lot more people, which said, “those individuals closest to the activities
takes more time and creates inefficiencies. With related to the core operational planning drivers
driver-based modeling, you can manage with less should be directly responsible for providing
details. “You find the 20 percent of the drivers updated, unbiased forecast driver values. Wider
that describe 80 percent of your business and involvement will ensure that decision-makers
focus on those. As a result, a lot less people need gain a more accurate picture of the current
to be involved, which saves time and creates position and future outlook,” Peck noted.
greater inefficiency.” “Finance is still responsible for the coordination,
AFP GUIDE: How FP&A is Improving Analytics
management, and execution of the overall data integration and master data management;
forecast process, but the business owners closest flexible and robust analytic planning; reporting
to the real operations of the business should own and consolidation applications; and standardized
and be held accountable for the driver inputs,” end-user tools for accessing, inputting, and
he said. visualizing information.
• Reporting and analysis. Adopting a rolling
forecast planning process in lieu of a traditional Practitioner case study:
annual budget process is a radical departure Direct Energy
from conventional practices and thinking, Direct Energy is an energy retailer that
according to Peck. “For those organizations that services both businesses and residential
still retain the annual budget but highly leverage homes. The company has customers in the
rolling forecasts for the bulk of their planning, Northern U.S. and a regulated business in
reporting, and analysis needs, the change is Alberta, Canada. Michael Senchuk, manager
still very substantial. Business owners must be of planning and analysis, is mostly involved
educated and trained around a new set of norms, in the Canadian-regulated aspect of the
expected behaviors, and baseline KPIs, where business, where he spent the last three years.
reliance on variance to budget comparisons will Over time, forecasting has not changed
dramatically. The company does one forecast
not suffice,” he said. “In the brave new world,
in the spring and one in the fall. The fall
the focus shifts from explaining what happened
forecast then serves as the budget for the
to why it happened, what will happen, and what
next year.
can we do to make it happen more favorably in The process starts at gross margins and
the future.” ends with looking at operating expenses and
• Integrate with other processes. Another the balance sheet. “We have a quasi-rolling
forecast,” explained Senchuk. The company
important issue is alignment with other
adds a full-year outlook in the fall, instead of
processes: strategic planning, business planning,
focusing only on year-end. How far out and
and operational planning. “If a rolling forecast
how frequently the forecast is depends on the
is not harmonized, it creates problems,” said nature of the business, according to Senchuk.
Melnychuk. “Operational planning should feed “We’re on a weekly basis,” he said.
the forecast,” she said. “It’s important to align Whose involved in contributing to the
through drivers in the system. Many companies forecast depends on the nature of the
around the globe are not there yet. The business. In the competitive businesses in the
practice is called harmonized planning or U.S., the sales teams are much more involved.
integrated planning.” In the regulated business in Canada, most of
the work is handled by finance. A lot of that is
• Enable tools and technology. Rolling forecasts also tied to what the company has to present
rely on a series of interconnected operational to the local regulatory commission.
driver models to generate expected financial For a while, the company used
results. This modeling environment must spreadsheets but have now upgraded to an
accommodate multiple, fast-paced, cross- SAP module. “It’s a lot easier to reconcile,”
functional forecast iterations involving robust said Senchuk. “It compresses the time it takes
“what-if ” analysis, scenario planning, and to produce the forecast, especially for the
decision-making trade-off discussions, according balance sheet. I see a lot of value in a rolling
to Peck. Given these business requirements, forecast as it provides a heads up on what’s
going on in the future horizon. Things are
it’s essential that the rolling forecast process
always moving.”
be supported by a comprehensive enterprise
information architecture platform, including
Practitioner case study: 10 Common Pitfalls

National Retailer Given all the benefits of a rolling forecast, “One
“I wouldn’t necessarily call it a ‘formal’ rolling would think that the balance of companies would
forecast, but we’re headed in that direction,” have adopted this approach,” said Peck. “But
said the director of FP&A at a retail company. according to multiple studies, the adoption rate is
“We’re updating our forward look and
somewhere between 30 and 50 percent to date.”
using that outlook heading into the budget
Why is the adoption rate for rolling forecasts so low?
forecasting. We have streamlined it. We look
at an 18 months horizon”
What are the root causes when organizations have
Their forecast is driver-based. One example failed in their attempt to implement a rolling forecast
of a key driver is inventory flow. “The buyers in the past?
need to make decisions six-nine months in
1. Maintaining the same level of work.
advance. We’re basically taking what some
According to Peck, the primary reason that a
groups were already doing informally, getting
rolling forecast implementation fails is that the
those forecasts aligned with the rest of the
organization, and pulling a P&L forecast
organization treats the rolling forecast cycle just
from that,” he said. “Our buying cycle is such like another budget cycle. The amount of work
that there are a lot of activities that impact for FP&A and the business is essentially the
us beyond the current year. We had people same. In essence, they are now creating a “black
doing that on an ad hoc basis before. Now hole of budgeting” 4-12 times per year.
the entire organization has embraced it. This “One of the key hurdles companies face is that
brings Much greater alignment, which means a rolling forecast is not just about elongating the
clarity, accuracy and efficiency.” current process,” said Kolawole. “That may run
“We have a good sense of variability into opposition because the forecasters already
and fixed cost and investment in and out thought it was painful enough as-is, and making
each month,” this FP&A director said. “The
it even longer will only make it more painful.”
18-month outlook is revised quarterly, while
If done right, implementing a rolling forecast
the annual forecast is updated monthly.”
means fixing the current process, enhancing it
After the process was taken up by the entire
organization, “We have been getting better
and driving faster by using a simpler process
and better,” he said. While the process took rather than a more difficult one, which can
hold in 2013, it’s taken a little while to get dramatically simplify the process of selling
into the rhythm, according to the director. rolling forecasts internally.
Their biggest challenges were learning to
2. Getting good data and good tools.
work together and ensuring that each group
learned to think in financial terms. Marketing
Perhaps one of the biggest obstacles, according
was comfortable providing revenue numbers to Max, is getting the data to line up the way
but was not providing associated costs. “It people want it to. “To make it work, you need
was financial rigor that everyone needed to know what the drivers and data are that you
to get accustomed to,” he said. How each need to build the models.” If you just say you’re
quarter played out was not a big concern. doing a rolling forecast and don’t devote the
“While we stumbled initially, now the process necessary tools and budget to it, it won’t work.
is much more collaborative and financially A proper level of support, technology, data and
oriented,” he said. “If it’s not grounded in people are required to make it work. Plus, you
numbers, don’t even talk to us,” the FP&A need multidimensional analytics. “Companies
director said. “That took a little time for need to build dimensionality into their
people to understand. It takes a little while to
forecasting models that actually work,”
get used to the concept.”
said Max.
3. Figuring out the drivers. to it, the rolling forecast is no longer objective.
“The other big obstacle is figuring out the The reason we need it, is to want to see what is
drivers and the forecast based on those key likely to happen and be able to play out different
drivers,” said Max. “Figure out what empirically scenarios. This is where we’re likely to be. If
makes a difference: What are the drivers people mix performance management with
that have the most material impact on the forecasting, they are likely to be emotional about
forecast? What’s interesting is that when you it as bonuses are connected to the performance.
ask executives what matters, invariably it’s not As the result, the accuracy of forecast will suffer.”
necessarily the right answer. Do the analytics to
7. Integrate the forecast with other
see what drivers have the most impact. That’s
processes.
technically one of the most important things to
A pitfall for many companies is that they don’t
do,” Max said.
integrate the new forecasting process with legacy
4. Know what’s required to run the processes, according to Kolawole. The Hackett
business. Group advocates using the Q3 or Q4 forecast as
There’s also confusion around what a rolling the pseudo budget. Eliminating the budget can
forecast will fix and what it won’t fix, according make people nervous because of other aspects tied
to Kolawole. “That’s partly because managers to the budget, like compensation. But leveraging a
confuse the process of project planning, how snapshot of the forecast for budget purposes is key.
it’s funded and executed (operational), and the
8. Get finance involved from the get-go.
forecasting process. The planning process for
From an operational standpoint, it’s important that
projects happens regardless of the forecast. The
the finance team get involved from the beginning,
key is in identifying the level of detail that’s
according to Kolawole. Manufacturing, marketing
required day-to-day to run the business.”
and sales also have to have a seat at the table.
5. Don’t start with a blank sheet of paper. Finance guides and dollarizes the impact of sales
“The rolling forecast shouldn’t be a blank and marketing initiatives and, at the end of the day,
sheet of paper,” Kolawole said. “It should be there are no surprises.
seeded with the prior forecast. A lot of that
9. Change the mindset.
is technology-driven. If the right drivers are
“Another forecasting pitfall is exhibited in
identified, it should be easy to roll those forward
companies with well-established budgeting
and also use that to replace the budget. In
process that are accustomed to an annual cycle,”
addition, the rolling forecast should be based on
said Morlidge. “They don’t have planning
the 3- to 5-year strategic plans and incorporating
assumptions in place to feed a forecast beyond
macro indicators, such as economic forecasting
the year-end. For rolling forecasting to work
and big projects. There’s a natural feed there.”
well, the entire organization needs to work with
6. Delink compensation from forecast. a consistent set of horizons and a consistent
“Another potential problem is that people get cycle. This obsessive focus on year-end numbers
compensated based on whether they deliver the often leads to a connection between targets
results presented in their rolling forecast,” said and compensation for performance evaluation.
Accenture’s Axson. That’s a recipe for failure If people are only interested in that year-end
because it will affect the honesty of the forecast. number, they are less likely to provide objective
The target and compensation need to be separate input beyond that 1-year horizon, particularly
from the forecasting process. if the forecast is used to help set targets for the
Melnychuk agreed. “The problem in mixing following year.
the two is that it gets political,” she said. “When “There needs to be a clear distinction between
people feel their performance evaluation is tied target and forecast,” Morlidge explained.
“With companies that are stuck in a budgeting 3. Understand and communicate

mindset, any changes to the forecast are viewed the benefits.
as bad. It’s viewed as inadequacy of control, or According to Kolawole, adopting rolling
failure to understand the business. This can lead forecasts is a strategic opportunity for
to changes being suppressed, thereby robbing organizations to transform their planning and
the rolling forecast of its usefulness.” performance management capabilities. By
implementing the rolling forecast methodology
10. Have the right tools.
and its core enablers (driver models, forward-
It’s important to find the right tool that supports
looking reporting and analytics, enabling
what you’re trying to do. A lot of people simply try
technology), organizations can gain greater
to do it with consolidation tools or Excel, which
visibility into the business, better anticipate
doesn’t recognize the degree of collaboration that’s
and influence future outcomes, optimize the
required to produce a good rolling forecast, the
allocation of scarce resources, and improve the
dimensionality and change. “You need an agile,
quality and accuracy of forecasted results.
dynamic environment,” saidPeck.
4. Pinpoint specific business needs.
Transitioning to this framework and satisfying
Conclusion: 5 Implementation Tips the full array of business needs currently being
A rolling forecast can be an effective tool for met by the traditional budgeting process is not
FP&A to help promote its strategic role within the an easy task, especially as it pertains to target
enterprise. It can arm it with information that allows setting and incentive compensation. “This is
management to make better and more agile business why most organizations make the transition in a
decisions about how to steer the organization going phased approach where they look to rationalize,
forward, while saving time on other processes like streamline and improve their existing budgeting
the annual budget. But, of course, it’s not a panacea, and forecasting processes and augment these
and many companies run into difficulties—be they processes with a driver-based rolling forecast
technical or cultural—when trying to put in place a As part of this transformation, they clearly
rolling forecasting process. delineate which planning-related process
supports specific business needs. And, as with
Here are a few tips for those up for
all processes and organizations that mature over
time, some organizations have been able to
the challenge:
incorporate innovative incentive management
1. Measure the baseline. structures and make the full transition to a
“Do an internal evaluation to understand how rolling forecast while completely abandoning
broken, or not, your budgeting process is,” their traditional budgeting process.
said Kolawole. “Separate the business and the
5. Take it one step at a time.
forecast. Find out whether you have the same
No matter what path you take—a more
people wearing multiple hats; pure separation
measured approach or a complete break from
helps ensure integrity of the process. “
the traditional budget—you can transform the
2. Get the right tools. “ budgeting process from one that merely allocates
Never underestimate the importance of financial resources to one that optimizes the
technology,” said Kolawole. Technology can management of resources. The end result is a
help with the seeding process, scenario analysis, dynamic, continuous planning and forecasting
modeling the drivers to identify drivers, and process that delivers a true competitive advantage
making changes to particular levers. and superior business results.
About the Author
Nilly Essaides is Director of Practitioner Content Development at the Association for
Financial Professionals. Nilly has over 20 years of experience in research, writing and
meeting facilitation in the global treasury arena. She is a thought leader and the author
of multiple in-depth AFP Guides on treasury topics as well as monthly articles in AFP
Exchange, the AFP’s flagship publication. Nilly was managing director at the NeuGroup
and co-led the company’s successful peer group business. Nilly also co-authored a book
about knowledge management and how to transfer best practices with the American
Productivity and Quality Center (APQC).
About the Association for Financial Professionals

Headquartered outside Washington, D.C., the Association for Financial Professionals (AFP)
is the professional society that represents finance executives globally. AFP established and
administers the Certified Treasury ProfessionalTM and Certified Corporate FP&A ProfessionalTM
credentials, which set standards of excellence in finance. The quarterly AFP Corporate Cash
Indicators® serve as a bellwether of economic growth. The AFP Annual Conference is the
largest networking event for corporate finance professionals in the world.
AFP, Association for Financial Professionals, Certified Treasury Professional, and Certified
Corporate Financial Planning & Analysis Professional are registered trademarks of the
Association for Financial Professionals.© 2015 Association for Financial Professionals, Inc.
All Rights Reserved.
General Inquiries AFP@AFPonline.org
Web Site www.AFPonline.org
Phone 301.907.2862
Cas SandGo Inc.
Étude de cas : SandGO – Partie 1

Processus analysé : Intégration d’un mode prévisionnel en Rolling
Forecast
Atelier No 1 :
Description de la situation
Fondée en 1995 par Mme Kim L’Apporte , le restaurant-comptoir SandGO se spécialise dans la
fabrication de sandwichs sur mesure pour emporter. Le restaurant est devenu très connu dans
sa région pour la fraîcheur, la saveur et la valeur santé de ses sandwichs. Profitant de
l’engouement des résidents des villes avoisinantes pour ses produits, Mme L’Apporte a entrepris
en 2011 d’élargir la couverture du territoire en ouvrant quatre autres succursales qui remportent
toutes un vif succès également.
Mme L’Apporte est une entrepreneure dans l’âme et se projette toujours vers l’avant. Sous
l’insistance des acteurs économiques de sa région et de son comptable externe, elle a accepté il
y a cinq ans de confier à celui-ci la préparation et le suivi de son budget d’opération VS ses
résultats financiers.
Comme elle en avait l’intuition, elle trouve que l’exercice est peut concluant pour les raisons
suivantes :
 Le niveau d’effort déployé pour la préparation du budget est important

 Certains chiffres sont tirés de nulle part : « Qui sait ce que je vais vendre dans 15 mois…! »
 Les résultats arrivent souvent plusieurs semaines après les fins de mois
 Elle constate que même si elle a de bons résultats financiers, les budgets mensuels et
trimestriels ne correspondent que rarement aux résultats réels.
Mme L’Apporte vous a rencontré il y a quelques semaines dans un évènement caritatif et vous
avez échangé sur sa problématique. Elle vous a d’ailleurs confié qu’elle ne voulait plus rien savoir
d’un budget. Vous lui avez alors proposé d’utiliser une approche différente, plus tournée vers
l’avenir et adaptée à la fluctuation de son marché et elle a accepté de faire l’exercice avec vous
du Rolling Forecast. Elle se dit qu’elle n’a pas grand-chose à perdre et qu’il lui faut trouver
éventuellement un outil de gestion qui lui permettra de bien suivre la performance de son
organisation dans le temps.
Votre cueillette d’information
Vous avez donc entrepris de recueillir des données financières et opérationnelles qui vous
permettront d’établir une première version des prévisions pour les prochains trimestres. Voici
le résultat de votre cueillette :
© Optima Management inc. Page 1

Cas SandGo Inc.
Le restaurant offre une douzaine de sandwichs différents qui sont regroupés dans trois familles.
Ces sandwichs peuvent être préparés selon les goûts de chaque client avec une série de
garnitures et condiments. Comme les chaînes concurrentes, SandGO offre ses sandwichs seuls
ou en format trio avec une boisson fontaine et un choix de croustilles ou de biscuits. Chaque
famille a ses propres données qui influencent sa rentabilité que voici :
Type de sandwich Spécification Food cost Prix de

Au dernier vente
trimestre moyen
Viande Viande froide, poulet, porc 35 % 8,00 $
Végé Non végan, i.e. avec des œufs, fromage 40 % 6,50 $
Végan Aucun produit de source animale 50 % 8,25 $
Options :
Trio 45% 4,00 $
Breuvages ou 40% 2,25 $
biscuits seuls
La propriétaire estime que la faible marge sur les sandwichs végan est justifiée dans le but de
satisfaire à cette clientèle en croissance. Les ingrédients de cette famille sont actuellement plus
dispendieux mais elle s’attend à ce qu’ils diminuent avec le temps et la croissance en popularité
du choix végan.
D’ailleurs, des informations fiables sur les tendances du marché qu’elle a pu obtenir lui indiquent
ce qui suit sur l’évolution des 18 prochains mois :
 Les produits « viande » devraient décroitre de 2 %* par trimestre

 Les produits « VÉGÉ et Végan » connaîtront quant à eux une croissance de 3 %* par
trimestre
* : Par rapport aux résultats des derniers actuels.
Mme L’Apporte prévoit toujours une augmentation de ses prix au début du trimestre #3, tout
juste avant le retour à l’école au mois d’août. Comme les étudiants composent une importante
partie de sa clientèle, la période des vacances d’été fait souvent en sorte qu’ils ne se souviennent
plus du prix qu’ils payaient à la fin des classes. La prochaine augmentation prévue pour le 1er
juillet est de 0,25 $ par sandwich, de 0,15 $ sur le forfait trios et de 0,15 $ sur les breuvages et à-
côtés. Mme L’Apporte ne prévoit pas d’autres augmentations pour l’instant.
De plus, selon l’expérience de Mme L’Apporte , la fréquentation et le nombre de ventes dans ses
succursales actuelles devraient croitre de 1 % par trimestre. Elle ne note pas de fluctuation
saisonnière dans ses ventes entre les trimestres. La formule trio est très prisée pas sa clientèle
et elle représente 80% de la vente des sandwichs.

Cas SandGo Inc.
À la page suivante, vous trouverez également un état des résultats de l’année qui vient de se
terminer qui vous présente ses résultats sur une base annuelle. Vous avez également un tableau
avec les principaux indicateurs clés que Mme L’Apporte a en tête et que vous avez pu recueillir.
Travail à faire :
1. Lire et comprendre le cas pour être en mesure de compléter le tableau excel (les états
financiers) et d’en discuter des éléments principaux en plénière.
2. Avec l’aide de la maquette Excel qui vous a été fournie, préparer une première version
de l’état des résultats d’un Rolling Forecast qui couvrira une période de six trimestres
(soit 18 mois) en utilisant l’information, les données et les facteurs qui sont présent
dans l’énoncé du cas. N’oubliez pas que certains de ces facteurs peuvent avoir des
effets sur d’autres.
3. Analyser l’impact sur le Bilan et l’état des flux de trésoreries

Bilan fin du dernier
Bilan trimestre
Actifs
Actif à Court Terme
Encaisse 397 653 $
Inventaire (50 000$ par succursale) 250 000 $
Sous-total actifs à court terme 647 653 $
Actif à Long Terme

Immobilisations (200 000 par succursale) 1 000 000 $
Amortissements cumulés (750 000) $
Sous-total actifs à long terme 250 000 $
TOTAL Actifs 897 653 $
Passifs
Passifs à court terme
Découvert bancaire - $
Compte Fournisseurs 50 000 $
Total passifs à court terme 50 000 $
Passifs à long terme

Prêt immobilisation (remboursable sur 10 ans, taux annuel de 2.5%) - $
Capitaux Propres
Actions communs 10 000 $
Bénéfices non-répartis 725 000 $
Profit (perte) de l'exercise) 112 653 $
Total Capitaux Propres 847 653 $
TOTAL Passifs et Capitaux Propres 897 653 $

SandGO inc. - Partie 1
État des Résultats
5 succursales
Dernier
Dernière année Trimestre
Revenus
Ventes en Trio 2 766 926 $ 707 250 $
Ventes - Sandwich seul 455 787 $ 116 813 $
Ventes - Breuvages et à-côtés seuls 17 140 $ 4 500 $
Total des ventes nettes 3 239 853 $ 828 563 $
Coûts des ventes

Achats ingrédients - Viandes 652 182 $ 168 000 $
Achats ingrédients - Végé 116 651 $ 29 250 $
Achats ingrédients - Végan 52 879 $ 15 469 $
Achats autres (breuv et emballages) 501 397 $ 129 050 $
Total des achats 1 323 109 $ 341 769 $
41% 41%
MOD 825 909 $ 207 141 $
25% 25%
Marge brute 1 090 835 $ 279 653 $

34% 34%
Frais d'opération 0
Gérance-Supervision et propriétaire 12 000 $/mois 144 000 $ 36 000 $
Publicité et promotion 12 000 $/mois 144 000 $ 36 000 $
Locaux 3000/mois/local 180 000 $ 45 000 $
Amortissement des équipements et investissments 140 000 $ 35 000 $
Frais administratifs 1000/mois/succ 60 000 $ 15 000 $
668 000 $ 167 000 $
21% 20%
Bénéfice net avant impôts 422 835 $ 112 653 $
13% 14%
Cas SandGo Inc.
Étude de cas : SandGO – Portion 2
Nous sommes en juin 202X et cela fait maintenant 6 mois que vous travaillez avec Mme L’Apporte
et elle aime bien le nouvel outil que vous lui avez présenté. En fait, elle a de nouveau projets et
elle veut vous en faire part et voir comment vous allez intégrer ces nouvelles données pour lui
présenter les résultats anticipés.
Elle vous appelle et vous fait part qu’elle souhaite ouvrir prochainement 2 nouvelles succursales
car des locaux qu’elle convoitait depuis longtemps dans 2 secteurs prometteurs se sont libérés.
Elle a déjà réservé les locaux et s’attends à débuter ses ventes au 4e trimestre de cette année.
Elle sait d’expérience que lorsqu’elle ouvre une nouvelle succursale bien localisée les ventes
prennent un an avant d’atteindre le même niveau que les autres succursales avec la progression
suivante :
Trimestres 1er Trim 2e Trim 3e Trim 4e Trim

% des ventes 30% 60% 80% 100%
Pour des ventes de +/- 15 000 sandwichs par 4 500 9 000 12 000 15 000
trimestre par succursale cela donne
actuellement le nbre de sandwichs suivant
Répartition de ces nouvelles ventes *
- Sandwichs Viandes 9 po 74% 74% 74% 74%
- Sandwichs Végé 9 po 19% 19% 19% 19%
- Sandwichs Végan 9 po 7% 7% 7% 7%
* : le % de répartition entre les catégories de sandwich est déjà considéré.
D’un point de vue des dépenses, voici les éléments qu’elle prévoit :
 L’investissement dans les 2 succursales :

o Les frais d’ouverture et d’aménagement des deux nouvelles succursales sont
estimés à environ 200 000 $, pour un total de 400 000 $ incluant les inventaires
nécessaires.
o La portion capitalisable sera amortie sur une période de 10 ans.
o L’investissement sera financé par :
 un prêt de 300 000 $ remboursable sur 10 ans (120 paiements) au taux
annuel de 2,5 % sur le solde au début de chaque trimestre,
 et par un prélèvement de 100 000 $ de son fond de roulement qui servira
principalement à financer l’inventaire
 Les frais d’opération seront affectés de cette façon :

o 1 nouveau gérant à 3 000 $/mois
o 2 nouveaux locaux à 3 000$/mois chaque

Cas SandGo Inc.
o Afin de promouvoir les nouvelles succursales, elle s’attends à avoir besoin de

d’une hausse des frais de publicité de 2 000 $ par mois
o Les frais de MOD :
 On considère que les mêmes % de MOD s’appliqueront qu’aux autres
succursales
Dans votre discussion, vous avez pu recueillir également les points suivants :
 L’inventaire en tout temps par succursale est de 50 000 $

 Les comptes fournisseurs en tout temps sont de 10 000 $ par succursale
 Il n’y a aucun solde de prêt au moment de l’emprunt de 300 000 $
 Elle a eu des nouvelles de son fournisseur de produits Vegan et elle pourra bénéficier
d’une basse de ses coûts d’approvisionnement qui s’apparentera à environ 1 % de son
food cost par trimestre.
Mme L’Apporte vous attends fébrilement avec vos projections.
Travail à faire :
1. Avec l’aide de la maquette Excel qui vous a été fournie, préparer une seconde version
de l’état des résultats d’un Rolling Forecast qui couvrira une période de six trimestres à
partir du 3e trimestre de l’année 1 (soit 18 mois)
2. Mme L’Apporte prévoit des augmentations des prix similaires à ceux de l’année #1 pour
l’année 2
3. Analyser l’impact sur le Bilan et l’état des flux de trésorerie

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Les Cercles Optima

 Des échanges sur les réalités que vivent

 Des nouvelles pratiques avec des gens

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Présentation des participants

 Entreprise, fonction, secteur d’activité ou

 Attentes pour la journée

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Comment la comptabilité supporte la prise

Rapports de performance Déclarer les résultats réalisés

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Qu’est-ce qu’on reproche à nos budgets ?

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Des réactions trop souvent observés …

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Qu’est-ce qui se passe ?

 Les conditions du marché ne peuvent plus être

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Qu’est-ce que le Rolling Forecast (prévisions en continu ) ?

sans interruption. RFC 08

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Rolling Forecast……aligné au modèle opérationnel

Exercice actuel Prochain exercice

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Niveau d'incertitude des résultats

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Le défi : « voir » au-delà du mur de la fin d’année !

Exercice actuel Prochain exercice

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Atelier - Cas SandGO

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Où mon patron veut que je Cible d’amélioration

Là où mes inducteurs et mes

Où je vais dire que je vais

Trim 1 Trim 2 Trim 3 Trim 4

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Les bénéfices du Rolling Forecast

Les conditions d’utilisation

 Des rencontres régulières permettront se doivent d’être séparées.

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