Lecture 3.3. Forecasting

2016 2017 2018
Core
# Stores 200 210 210
Sqm per Store 2300 2350 2280
Sales per Squam 520 800 900
Sales 239,200,000 € 394,800,000 € 430,920,000 €
COGS 119,600,000 € 189,504,000 € 219,769,200 €
COGS (%Sales) 50% 48% 51%
SG&A 23,920,000 € 27,636,000 € 30,164,400 €
SG&A (%Sales) 10% 7% 7%
Personnel 9,368,730 € 10,172,095 € 11,025,000 €
# Employees 389 397 410
# Employees per Store 1.9 1.9 2.0
Average Cost per Employee 24,084 € 25,622 € 26,890 €
Depreciations 10,000,000 € 10,120,000 € 10,310,000 €
Depreciation (% PPE) 10% 10% 10%
EBIT 76,311,270 € 157,367,905 € 159,651,400 €
Taxes 24,847,200 € 41,538,143 € 46,129,301 €
Statutory Tax Rate 25% 25% 25%
Recurring Core Adjustments 5,769,383 € 2,196,166 € 6,216,451 €
Core Result 51,464,070 € 115,829,763 € 113,522,099 €
Non Core
Dividends Received 100 € 200 € 150 €
Dividends (%Financial Investments) 7% 13% 10%
Taxes 2,484,745 € 4,153,864 € 4,612,968 €
Non Recurring Adjustments 2,484,720 € 4,153,814 € 4,612,930 €
Non Core Result -2,484,645 € -4,153,664 € -4,612,818 €
Financial
Interests Paid 1,940,200 € 1,777,540 € 1,657,797 €
Interests (% Debt Previous Year) 9% 9%
Taxes 485,050 € 444,385 € 414,449 €
Financial Result -1,455,150 € -1,333,155 € -1,243,348 €
Comprehensive Income 47,524,275 € 110,342,943 € 107,665,934 €

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
220
2320
940
479,776,000 €
235,090,240 €
49%
28,786,560 €
6%
11,386,140 €
418
1.9
27,240 €
11,060,000 €
10%
193,453,060 €
74,611,790 €
30%
16,575,872 €
118,841,270 €
180 €
12%
7,461,233 €
30%
7,461,179 €
-7,461,053 €
1,870,879 €
11%
561,264 €
30%
-1,309,615 €
110,070,602 €
2016 2017 2018 2019
Core
Operating Cash 4,784,000 € 7,896,000 € 8,618,400 € 9,595,520 €
Operating Cash (% Sales) 2% 2% 2% 2%
Accounts Receivable 7,176,000 € 15,792,000 € 8,618,400 € 11,994,400 €
Collection Period 11 15 7 9
Inventory 8,970,000 € 11,370,240 € 10,988,460 € 12,929,963 €
Holding Period 27 22 18 20
Accounts Payable 27,508,000 € 47,376,000 € 52,744,608 € 58,772,560 €
Payable Period 84 91 88 91
Other Operational Assets 3,588,000 € 9,870,000 € 4,309,200 € 7,196,640 €
Other Op. Assets (%Sales) 2% 3% 1% 2%
PP&E 100,000,000 € 101,200,000 € 103,100,000 € 110,600,000 €
# Stores 200 210 210 220
PP&E per Store 500,000 € 481,905 € 490,952 € 502,727 €
Total Invested Capital 97,010,000 € 98,752,240 € 82,889,852 € 93,543,963 €
Non Core Assets

Microsoft Stock 1,500 € 1,500 € 1,500 € 1,500 €
Total Non Core Assets 1,500 € 1,500 € 1,500 € 1,500 €
Financial Assets
Excess of Cash 5,000,000 € 5,060,000 € 5,155,000 € 5,530,000 €
Financial Debt 19,402,000 € 17,775,403 € 16,577,970 € 18,708,793 €
Net Financial Assets -14,402,000 € -12,715,403 € -11,422,970 € -13,178,793 €
Equity 82,609,500 € 86,038,337 € 71,468,382 € 80,366,671 €
D/E 17% 15% 16% 16%

Transactions with Shareholders -106,914,106 € -122,235,889 € -101,172,313 €
Payout Ratio 97% 114% 92%
2020 2021 2022 2023
2016 2017 2018
Core
# Stores 200 210 210
Sqm per Store 2300 2350 2280
Sales 239,200,000 € 394,800,000 € 430,920,000 €
COGS 119,600,000 € 189,504,000 € 219,769,200 €
COGS (%Sales) 50% 48% 51%
SG&A 23,920,000 € 27,636,000 € 30,164,400 €
SG&A (%Sales) 10% 7% 7%
Personnel 9,368,730 € 10,172,095 € 11,025,000 €
# Employees 189 197 210
Depreciations 10,000,000 € 10,120,000 € 10,310,000 €
EBIT 76,311,270 € 157,367,905 € 159,651,400 €
Taxes 24,847,200 € 41,538,143 € 46,129,301 €
Recurring Adjustments 5,769,383 € 2,196,166 € 6,216,451 €
NOPLAT 51,464,070 € 115,829,763 € 113,522,099 €
Non Core
Taxes 2,484,745 € 4,153,864 € 4,612,968 €
Non Core Result -2,484,645 € -4,153,664 € -4,612,818 €
Financial
Interests Paid 1,940,200 € 1,777,540 € 1,657,797 €
Taxes 485,050 € 485,050 € 485,050 €

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
220 220 220 220 220

2320 2320 2320 2320 2320
940 940 940 940 940
479,776,000 € 479,776,000 € 479,776,000 € 479,776,000 € 479,776,000 €
235,090,240 € 235,090,240 € 235090240 235090240 235090240
49% 49% 49% 49% 49%
28,786,560 € 28,786,560 € 28786560 28786560 28786560
6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
11,386,140 € 11,386,140 € 11,386,140 € 11,386,140 € 11,386,140 €
218 218 218 218 218
1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.99090909090909
52,230 € 52,230 € 52,230 € 52,230 € 52,230 €
11,060,000 € 11,060,000 € 11060000 11060000 11060000
10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
193,453,060 € 193,453,060 € 193,453,060 € 193,453,060 € 193,453,060 €
74,611,790 € 74,611,790 € 74,611,790 € 74,611,790 € 74,611,790 €
30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
16,575,872 € 16,575,872 € 16,575,872 € 16,575,872 € 16,575,872 €
118,841,270 € 118,841,270 € 118,841,270 € 118,841,270 € 118,841,270 €
180 € 180 € 180 € 180 € 180 €

12% 12% 12% 12% 12%
7,461,233 € 7,461,233 € 7,461,233 € 7,461,233 € 7,461,233 €
30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
7,461,179 € 7,461,179 € 7,461,179 € 7,461,179 € 7,461,179 €
-7,461,053 € -7,461,053 € -7,461,053 € -7,461,053 € -7,461,053 €
1,870,879 € 2,111,350 € 483,910 € 0€ 0€

11% 11% 11% 11% 11%
485,050 € 633,405 € 145,173 € 0€ 0€
30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
-1,385,829 € -1,477,945 € -338,737 € 0€ 0€
109,994,388 € 109,902,272 € 111,041,480 € 111,380,217 € 111,380,217 €

2016 2017 2018 2019
Core
Operating Cash 4,784,000 € 7,896,000 € 8,618,400 € 9,595,520 €
Inventory 8,970,000 € 11,370,240 € 10,988,460 € 12,929,963 €
PP&E 100,000,000 € 101,200,000 € 103,100,000 € 110,600,000 €
# Stores 200 210 210 220
PP&E per Store 500,000 € 481,905 € 490,952 € 502,727 €
Non Core Assets

Microsoft Stock 1,500 € 1,500 € 1,500 € 1,500 €
Financial Assets
Excess of Cash 5,000,000 € 5,060,000 € 5,155,000 € 5,530,000 €
Financial Debt 19,402,000 € 17,775,403 € 16,577,970 € 18,708,793 €
Equity 82,609,500 € 86,038,337 € 71,468,382 € 80,366,671 €
D/E 17% 15% 16% 16%

Check 1€ 1€ 1€ 1€
2020 2021 2022 2023
9,595,520 € 9,595,520 € 9,595,520 € 9,595,520 €

2% 2% 2% 2%
11,994,400 € 11,994,400 € 11,994,400 € 11,994,400 €
9 9 9 9
12,929,963 € 12929963.2 12929963.2 12929963.2
20 20 20 20
58,772,560 € 58,772,560 € 58,772,560 € 58,772,560 €
91 91 91 91
7,196,640 € 7,196,640 € 7,196,640 € 7,196,640 €
2% 2% 2% 2%
110,600,000 € 110,600,000 € 110,600,000 € 110,600,000 €
220 220 220 220
502,727 € 502,727 € 502,727 € 502,727 €
93,543,963 € 93,543,963 € 93,543,963 € 93,543,963 €
1,500 € 1,500 € 1,500 € 1,500 €

1,500 € 1,500 € 1,500 € 1,500 €
0€ 4,695,041 € 13,705,440 € 22,715,839 €

4,287,956 € 0€ 0€ 0€
-4,287,956 € 4,695,041 € 13,705,440 € 22,715,839 €
89,257,508 € 98,240,504 € 107,250,903 € 116,261,302 €
5% -5% -13% -20%

-101,011,435 € -102,058,484 € -102,369,818 € -102,369,818 €
92% 92% 92% 92%
1€ 1€ 1€ 1€
2016 2017 2018
Core
# Stores 200 210 210
Sqm per Store 2300 2350 2280
Sales 239,200,000 € 394,800,000 € 430,920,000 €
COGS 119,600,000 € 189,504,000 € 219,769,200 €
COGS (%Sales) 50% 48% 51%
SG&A 23,920,000 € 27,636,000 € 30,164,400 €
SG&A (%Sales) 10% 7% 7%
Personnel 9,368,730 € 10,172,095 € 11,025,000 €
# Employees 189 197 210
Depreciations 10,000,000 € 10,120,000 € 10,310,000 €
EBIT 85,680,000 € 167,540,000 € 170,676,400 €
Taxes 24,847,200 € 41,538,143 € 46,129,301 €
Recurring Adjustments 5,769,383 € 2,196,166 € 6,216,451 €
NOPLAT 60,832,800 € 126,001,858 € 124,547,099 €
Non Core
Taxes 2,484,745 € 4,153,864 € 4,612,968 €
Non Core Result -2,484,645 € -4,153,664 € -4,612,818 €
Financial
Interests Paid 1,940,200 € 1,777,540 € 1,657,797 €
Taxes 485,050 € 485,050 € 485,050 €
Inflation Rate 2% 2% 2%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
220 250 280 300 300

2320 2313 2313 2313 2313
940 900 850 830 800
479,776,000 € 520,312,500 € 550,375,000 € 575,812,500 € 555,000,000 €
235,090,240 € 249,750,000 € 258676250 270631875 260850000
49% 48% 47% 47% 47%
28,786,560 € 34,687,500 € 36691666.667 38387500 37000000
6% 7% 7% 7% 7%
11,386,140 € 13,318,650 € 15,215,226 € 16,628,068 € 16,960,630 €
218 250 280 300 300
1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
52,230 € 53,275 € 54,340 € 55,427 € 56,535 €
11,060,000 € 12,500,000 € 14000000 15000000 15000000
10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
204,839,200 € 223,375,000 € 241,007,083 € 251,793,125 € 242,150,000 €
74,611,790 € 74,701,968 € 80,145,382 € 83,538,060 € 80,805,125 €
30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
16,575,872 € 7,689,468 € 7,843,257 € 8,000,122 € 8,160,125 €
130,227,410 € 148,673,032 € 160,861,701 € 168,255,065 € 161,344,875 €
180 € 180 € 180 € 180 € 180 €

12% 12% 12% 12% 12%
7,461,233 € 54 € 54 € 54 € 54 €
30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
7,461,179 € 0€ 0€ 0€ 0€
-7,461,053 € 126 € 126 € 126 € 126 €
1,870,879 € 1,856,743 € 2,169,362 € 2,877,406 € 2,620,990 €

11% 10% 10% 10% 10%
485,050 € 742,697 € 867,745 € 1,150,962 € 1,048,396 €
30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
-1,385,829 € -1,114,046 € -1,301,617 € -1,726,444 € -1,572,594 €
121,380,528 € 147,559,112 € 159,560,210 € 166,528,747 € 159,772,407 €
2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Example of Explanations
Company's expansion plan states 300 until 2022 and we believe them and forecast a certain pace to get there
No reason to assume changes in size so we take average
Results from our views on competitors, on company's strategy, on economic behavior, on consumer's demand, inflation rate,
Benchmarking analysis show that most companies in the sector have between a 46%-48% so we believe our company will eve
No reason to assume differences but the first year seemed odd, so we calculate average sans first year
No changes vs. averages

Constant at current prices
No reason to assume differences, so we use historical average
No reason to assume change in tax

Average of last few years in current prices
It's immaterial, so we don't waste much time and just do average or last year's value

None
No direct impact on our valution since it's a financial caption, so we don't waste a lot of time and assume historical average

pace to get there
nsumer's demand, inflation rate, etc.
we believe our company will eventually get there
and assume historical average

2016 2017 2018 2019
Core
Operating Cash 4,784,000 € 7,896,000 € 8,618,400 € 9,595,520 €
Inventory 8,970,000 € 11,370,240 € 10,988,460 € 12,929,963 €
PP&E 100,000,000 € 101,200,000 € 103,100,000 € 110,600,000 €
# Stores 200 210 210 220
PP&E per Store 500,000 € 481,905 € 490,952 € 502,727 €
Non Core Assets

Microsoft Stock 1,500 € 1,500 € 1,500 € 1,500 €
Financial Assets
Excess of Cash 5,000,000 € 5,060,000 € 5,155,000 € 5,530,000 €
Financial Debt 19,402,000 € 17,775,403 € 16,577,970 € 18,708,793 €
Equity 82,609,500 € 86,038,337 € 71,468,382 € 80,366,671 €
D/E 17% 15% 16% 16%

Check 1€ 1€ 1€ 1€
2020 2021 2022 2023
10,406,250 € 11,007,500 € 11,516,250 € 11,100,000 €

2% 2% 2% 2%
14,255,137 € 15,078,767 € 15,775,685 € 15,205,479 €
10 10 10 10
13,736,250 € 14227193.75 14884753.125 14346750
20 20 20 20
58,160,959 € 56,696,164 € 59,316,575 € 57,172,603 €
85 80 80 80
7,804,688 € 8,255,625 € 8,637,188 € 8,325,000 €
2% 2% 2% 2%
125,000,000 € 140,000,000 € 150,000,000 € 150,000,000 €
250 280 300 300
500,000 € 500,000 € 500,000 € 500,000 €
113,041,366 € 131,872,921 € 141,497,300 € 141,804,627 €
1,500 € 1,500 € 1,500 € 1,500 €

1,500 € 1,500 € 1,500 € 1,500 €
0€ 0€ 0€ 0€
21,858,779 € 28,993,131 € 26,409,448 € 15,004,014 €
-21,858,779 € -28,993,131 € -26,409,448 € -15,004,014 €
91,184,086 € 102,881,291 € 115,089,352 € 126,802,112 €
24% 28% 23% 12%

-136,741,697 € -147,863,006 € -154,320,686 € -148,059,647 €
93% 93% 93% 93%
1€ 1€ 1€ 1€
Example of Explanations
No reason to assume differences
Industry standard is around 10 days, in line with historical average of the company, so we believe that number
Industry standard is actually 15 days but our company appears to have a different inventory policy. We prefer to stick with the
Currently above industry standard, which is roughly 60 days. We believe it will somehow align with the industry as the compan
No reason to assume differences
Already forecasted
Company claims they will be able to have more efficient store models, but benchmarking analysis doesn't support that, so we
Company states they intend to keep roughly the same distribution level as last year, so we believe them for the short term - D
eve that number
olicy. We prefer to stick with the 20 days from last year.
with the industry as the company negotiates better cost margins, but not as much, so we use a value somewhere in between
ysis doesn't support that, so we prefer to go with a historical average, which is roughly around 500 000€
eve them for the short term - D/E level it implies is however not very reasonable, it would require adjustments; Perhaphs level of investm
where in between
nts; Perhaphs level of investment is being understimated or results are being overestimated?

Lecture 3.3. Forecasting

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2016 2017 2018

Comprehensive Income 47,524,275 € 110,342,943 € 107,665,934 €

Non Core Assets

Equity 82,609,500 € 86,038,337 € 71,468,382 € 80,366,671 €

D/E 17% 15% 16% 16%

Comprehensive Income 47,524,275 € 110,383,608 € 107,736,534 €

220 220 220 220 220

180 € 180 € 180 € 180 € 180 €

1,870,879 € 2,111,350 € 483,910 € 0€ 0€

109,994,388 € 109,902,272 € 111,041,480 € 111,380,217 € 111,380,217 €

Non Core Assets

Equity 82,609,500 € 86,038,337 € 71,468,382 € 80,366,671 €

D/E 17% 15% 16% 16%

9,595,520 € 9,595,520 € 9,595,520 € 9,595,520 €

1,500 € 1,500 € 1,500 € 1,500 €

0€ 4,695,041 € 13,705,440 € 22,715,839 €

89,257,508 € 98,240,504 € 107,250,903 € 116,261,302 €

5% -5% -13% -20%

Comprehensive Income 56,893,005 € 120,555,703 € 118,761,534 €

220 250 280 300 300

180 € 180 € 180 € 180 € 180 €

1,870,879 € 1,856,743 € 2,169,362 € 2,877,406 € 2,620,990 €

121,380,528 € 147,559,112 € 159,560,210 € 166,528,747 € 159,772,407 €

No changes vs. averages

No reason to assume differences, so we use historical average

No reason to assume change in tax

No reason to assume change in tax

No reason to assume change in tax

nsumer's demand, inflation rate, etc.

we believe our company will eventually get there

and assume historical average

Non Core Assets

Equity 82,609,500 € 86,038,337 € 71,468,382 € 80,366,671 €

D/E 17% 15% 16% 16%

10,406,250 € 11,007,500 € 11,516,250 € 11,100,000 €

1,500 € 1,500 € 1,500 € 1,500 €

91,184,086 € 102,881,291 € 115,089,352 € 126,802,112 €

24% 28% 23% 12%

No reason to assume differences

No reason to assume differences

olicy. We prefer to stick with the 20 days from last year.

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