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ECONOMETRIE
1.1 Introduction
Soit
………………………………………..
⎡Y ⎤ ⎡ 1 X 21 X 31 ... X K 1 ⎤ ⎡β ⎤ ⎡ u1 ⎤
⎢ 1⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ 1⎥ ⎢ ⎥
⎢Y ⎥ ⎢1 X X 32 ... X K 2 ⎥⎥ ⎢β ⎥ ⎢ u2 ⎥
⎢ 2⎥ ⎢ 22 ⎢ 2⎥ ⎢ ⎥
⎢ ... ⎥ =⎢ +
⎢ ⎥ ⎢... ... ... ... ... ⎥⎥ ⎢ ... ⎥
⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ... ⎥
⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥
⎢YT ⎥ ⎢ 1 X 2T X 3T ... X KT ⎥ ⎢ βK ⎥ ⎢uT ⎥
⎣ ⎦ (T ×1) ⎣ ⎦ (T×K ) ⎣ ⎦ (K×1) ⎣ ⎦ (T ×1)
Y = Xβ + u (1.1)
2
1.2 Les Hypothèses
1. E(u) = 0 ⇒
Y = Xβ + u ⇒ E (Y ) = X β
⎡ E (u1 ) ⎤ ⎡ 0 ⎤
⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥
⎢ E (u ) ⎥ ⎢ 0 ⎥
⎢ 2 ⎥ ⎢ ⎥
E (u ) = 0 ⇒ ⎢ ⎥ = ⎢...⎥
⎢ ... ⎥ ⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥
⎢E (uT )⎥ ⎢ 0 ⎥
⎢⎣ ⎥⎦ ⎣ ⎦
2. E(uu T ) = σ 2 I
⎧
⎪0 i≠j
E (uuT ) = σ 2I ⇔ E (uiu j ) = ⎨⎪ 2
⎪
⎪ σ i=j
⎪
⎩
⎡ u1 ⎤
⎢ ⎥
⎢ u2 ⎥
E (uuT ) = E ⎢ ... ⎥ ⎡⎢u1 u2 ... uT ⎤⎥
⎢ ⎥⎣ ⎦
⎢ ⎥
⎢uT ⎥
⎣ ⎦
⎡ u12 u1u2 .... u1uT ⎤
⎢ ⎥
⎢ 2 ⎥
u
⎢ 2 1u u 2 ... u u
2 T⎥
E (uu ) = E ⎢
T
⎥
⎢ ... ... ... ... ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢u u u u ... u 2 ⎥
⎢⎣ T 1 T 2 T ⎥
⎦
⎡ E (u1 ) E (u1u2 ) .... E (u1uT )⎤
2
⎢ ⎥
⎢ 2 ⎥
⎢ E (u2u1 ) E (u2 ) ... E (u2uT )⎥
E (uu ) = ⎢
T
⎥
⎢ ... ... ... ... ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢E (u u ) E (u u ) ... E (u 2 ) ⎥
⎢⎣ T 1 T 2 T ⎥⎦
⎡σ 2 0 ...0⎤
⎢ ⎥
⎢ 2 ⎥
⎢0 σ ... 0 ⎥
E (uu ) = ⎢
T
⎥ = σ 2I
⎢ ... ... ... ... ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢0 0 ... σ ⎥2⎥
⎢⎣ ⎦
3
3. ρ(X) = K ⇒ Les X sont Linéairement indépendants ⇒ (X T X)-1 existe
1.3 Estimation
Y = X βˆ + e (1.2)
⎡e1 ⎤
⎢ ⎥
⎢e2 ⎥
eTe = ⎡⎢e1 e2 ... eT ⎤⎥ ⎢ ... ⎥ = ∑ et2
⎣ ⎦⎢ ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢e ⎥
⎣ T⎦
donc
d’où
∂eTe
= −2(X TY ) + 2(X T X )βˆ = 0
ˆ
∂β
X TY = (X T X )βˆ (1.3)
d’où
4
Notez que X T e = 0 . En effet
X Te = X T (Y − X βˆ) = X TY − (X T X )βˆ
X Te = X TY − (X T X )(X T X )−1 X TY = 0
⎡ 1 1 ... 1 ⎤ ⎡ e1 ⎤ ⎢⎡ ∑ et ⎥⎤ ⎡ 0 ⎤
⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎢ ⎥
⎢X ⎥ ⎢e2 ⎥ ⎢ e X ⎥⎥ ⎢ 0 ⎥
⎢ ⎥ = ⎢ ∑ t 2t ⎥ = ⎢⎢ ⎥⎥
⎢ 21 X 22 .... X 2T ⎥
X Te = ⎢ ⎥
⎢ ... ... ... ... ⎥ ⎢ ... ⎥ ⎢ ... ⎥ ⎢...⎥
⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥
⎢X K 1 X K 2 ... X KT ⎥ ⎢⎣eT ⎥⎦ ⎢⎢ ∑ e X ⎥⎥ ⎢ 0 ⎥
⎣ ⎦ ⎣ t kt
⎦ ⎣ ⎦
1.4.1 Unbaisure
βˆ = (X T X )−1 X TY = (X T X )−1 X T (X β + u )
βˆ = (X T X )−1 X T X β + (X T X )−1 X T u
βˆ = β + (X T X )−1 X T u
E (βˆ) = β + (X T X )−1 X T E (u ) = β
d’où
E (βˆ) = β
βˆ = β + (X T X )−1 X T u
5
βˆ − β = (X T X )−1 X T u
par définition
en d’autres termes
⎡ βˆ − β ⎤
⎢ 1 1 ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ βˆ2 − β2 ⎥
∑=E⎢ ⎥ ⎡ βˆ − β1 βˆ2 − β2 ... βˆK − βK ⎤⎥
⎢ ... ⎥ ⎢⎣ 1 ⎦
⎢ ⎥
⎢ˆ ⎥
⎢ βK − βK ⎥
⎣ ⎦
donc
donc
∑ = σ 2 (X T X )−1 (1.5)
et donc
on sait que
βˆ = (X T X )−1 X TY = AY
β = HY = [(X T X )−1 X T + C ]Y
6
β = HY = H [X β + u ] = HX β + Hu
E (βˆ) = β ssi HX = I
mais
HX = [(X T X )−1 X T + C ]X = I + CX
donc
HX = I ssi CX = 0
mais
E (uuT ) = σ 2I
donc
mais
7
1.5 Un Estimateur pour σ̂ 2
eTe
σˆ2 =
T −K
e = ⎡⎣I − X (X T X )−1 X T ⎤⎦ (X β + u )
e = X β − X (X T X )−1 X T X β + Mu
donc
e = Mu
E ⎡⎣uT Mu ⎤⎦ = σ 2 (X 1 + X 2 ) = Tr (M )σ 2
mais
Tr (M ) = Tr (I ) − Tr (X (X T X )−1 X T )
8
Tr (M ) = Tr (I ) − Tr (X T X )(X T X )−1 = T − K
donc
E (eTe) = E (uT Mu ) = (T − K )σ 2
donc
eTe
E( ) = σ2 (1.7)
T −K
donc
eTe
T −K