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Abstract — Economic Evaluation of Enhanced Oil Recovery — The research for tomorrow's oil
reserves has directed the efforts of the energy industry to frontiers beyond the conventional exploration
and production strategies. These frontiers are defined not by geography or geology but rather by
technology. They are a collection of technologies-involving the use of thermal, gas and chemical means
for producing more oil-that fall under the broad umbrella called Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR). The
results of successful application of this new technology will have a decisive impact on the energy
conservation program of any oil producing country. A comprehensive national energy program is
complex and to plan it represents a challenge. A unified and complete national program must encompass
260 Oil & Gas Science and Technology – Rev. IFP, Vol. 57 (2002), No. 3
the consideration of all possible options. The potential of each need to be explored. One such option in
Libya is to produce more oil, that is, to effect the enhancement of oil recovery from the nation oil fields.
The planning of an EOR project demands a meticulous attention to many problems, thus requiring
considerable lead time for studies, evaluations, project design and, most of all, the economics of these
high cost EOR projects.
The objective of this study is to conduct an economic analysis on one of the most representative
candidate major field in Libya (D field) for application of the technically approved enhanced oil recovery
methods. By performing economic sensitivity analysis on key input variables such as oil prices, the price
of injection solvent, capital expenditures, operating expenses, and oil recovery, the aim is to develop
sensitivity analysis graphs for each variable to assess future engineering planning with regard to the
EOR projects economics in Libya. Economic optimization is the ultimate goal of reservoir engineering
management. With estimated production, capital, operating expenses, and financial data, project
economics are evaluated. Project finding could be applied to any EOR candidate reservoir worldwide.
EOR oil in that reservoir are entered into the model, which to the price of oil. Three considerations have been incorporated
then generate estimate of: into the model which account for technical risk:
– the quantity of crude oil that will be produced from the – The recovery model has been empirically constructed
project; from actual field experiences; thus, the specific recovery
– a price sufficient to reimburse all costs of the project and parameters represent an average of marginal and highly
provide an adequate Return On Investment (ROI); successful projects.
– the timing at which reserves in the reservoir will be – The screening guide used for selecting reservoirs favorable
produced. to EOR has eliminated the least favorable reservoirs (e.g.,
These estimates are then aggregated for the overall the ones with the highest technical risk) and has assigned
estimates of daily production, cumulative production, and the remaining reservoirs to the most favorable technique;
ultimate recovery. therefore, some of the failure risks have been mitigated.
– The economic model incorporates a consideration for
technical failures using an approach analogous to the
1.1 General Structure of the Economic Model
allocation of dry hole costs to successful wells.
The estimate of the amount to be recovered through EOR While EOR projects are considered risky and carry a
application is based on actual reservoir parameters of oil higher target rate of return, an analysis indicates that the
saturation, pore volume and previous primary and secondary economic effects of risk and failure may be lower than
recovery, and the actual recovery calculation differs among generally perceived. These effects stem from the reservoir
techniques. This estimate is displayed as total incremental development practices used for EOR recovery, which serves
EOR production and incremental production per year from to minimize the total of capital at risk. Typically, companies
the time the project was initiated. The oil recoveries obtained initiate a pilot project prior to full reservoir development.
by using compositional reservoir simulation model. The Therefore, actual investment losses can be held to the costs of
estimate of price is based on the projection of cash flows the pilots, minimizing the risks of reservoir wide failure.
and a set rate of return. Cash inflows are generated by the The risk premium can be calculated based on the
production of oil. Cash outflow are comprised the following following two equations:
investment and operating costs: field development expen-
ditures, equipment expenditures, operating and maintenance (Investment cost per acre for the pilot) × (Pilot acreage)
costs, injection material costs and other costs. × (probability of failure) (1)
The cash flows are expressed as dollars per year from the and,
time of project initiation. They are based on development (Investment cost per acre) × (full EOR acre)
characteristics, numerous technique specific and general × (1 - probability of failure) (2)
costs parameters, and several assumptions, all of which are
discussed later. The production estimate is matched with The actual risk premium for any particular reservoir could,
investment and operating costs and various rates of return to of course, vary widely from this hypothetical case.
calculate the required price for the oil. Conversely, the
models compute the rate of return yielded at series of fixed 1.3 Financial Assumption
prices. The quantities of oil are aggregated by price to
construct the price-supply curves. Individual price-supply The model incorporate a series of financial assumptions that
curves for each technique and an overall price-supply curve affect the price estimates such as the following:
for EOR recovery are generated. Based on selected prices – Date of cost assessment. The costs used are assumed to
and development assumption, these price-supply curves are be applicable as of the date of initiating the project. As
converted to the timing at which reserves become proved and these model is used in future years, the specific cost
are produced. These curves are then extrapolated based on parameters will need to be updated to reflect cost changes.
remaining oil in place and then the aggregated quantities of – Sharing of costs. The model assumes that well operating
oil are aggregated by price to construct the price-supply costs are shared between primary/secondary and EOR
curves. production. For this assumption, a primary/secondary
production decline curve was constructed for each
1.2 EOR Recovery and Risk Assumptions reservoir.
– Allocation of general and administrative (G&A) overhead
In EOR recovery, only a small portion of failures is complete costs. Enhanced recovery projects place increased burden
technical failures where no additional oil is recovered. on the administration of a company in both field and
Rather, the failures are generally economic failures where the headquarter operation. Producing companies reflect the
recovery was insufficient, too slow, or too costly in relation costs of this burden by adding an amount to the costs of
262 Oil & Gas Science and Technology – Rev. IFP, Vol. 57 (2002), No. 3
the project for G&A or overhead costs. Based on the uses a successful efforts approach (e.g., expenses all
practices of numerous producing companies, the model intangible costs) for its tax deduction. As a result, the
assumes project G&A cost per year equal to the following: following rules apply:
20% of basic and incremental injection operating and • Intangible costs equal to 70% of drilling and completion
maintenance costs plus 4% of investment costs.
cost for production wells and 100% of workover costs
– Distribution of tangible and intangible costs for drilling
are expended in the year incurred.
and completion. Producing companies use a variety of
• Tangible costs equal to 30% of drilling and completion
accounting principles for the costs for drilling and com-
pleting wells. Selection of these principles affects reported costs for production wells, plus 100% of all other well
profits and tax liability. Central to these issues is the lease, and injection investment costs are expended
differentiation of tangible (capitalized) from intangible (through depreciation) based on a unit of production
(expensed) costs. The model assumes that the company approach.
TABLE 1
Cost elements of EOR miscible projects
Equipment expenditures
Well, lease, and field production Install equipment necessary to operate new Number of new production wells drilled; costs
equipment production wells. vary by depth and region.
Injection equipment Install equipment necessary to operate new injection Number of new production and injection wells
wells. drilled. Costs vary by depth and region.
Separation and compression Install sufficient equipment to produce maximum Maximum pore volume injection per year.
equipment yearly requirement for recycle indicants.
Incremental injection operating and Cover incremental operating and maintenance costs Number and injection wells. Costs vary by depth
maintenance costs due to injection operation and increased fluid and region.
handling.
Other costs
Field study, engineering, and Provide research, development, and management Include in general and overhead costs.
supervision support to the project.
AY Zekri and KK Jerbi / Economic Evaluation of Enhanced Oil Recovery 263
TABLE 2
Incremental cost production
2 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS CASES include field, pipeline, terminal and overhead expenses.
Additional costs were included for the EOR processes, such
Three cases to be evaluated were defined as following: as compression, injection and reprocessing of CO2/HC gas.
– Base case: continue production using conventional Sensitivity analysis has been performed on operating
production process (primary and secondary). expenses in order to compensate for any deviation in the
– Carbon dioxides CO2 miscible case. Implementing EOR future estimated operation cost due to EOR. Table 3 shows
using CO2 injection. the financial and cost variables used in this study.
– Hydrocarbon (HC) case. Implementing EOR using (HC)
injection. TABLE 3
Table 1 presents cost elements of EOR miscible projects; Summary of financial and cost variables
meanwhile Table 2 presents incremental cost of production.
The total capital cost is estimated to be some $MM190 based
Variable Value
on similar projects performed in the oil industry and further
Oil price $20/bbl
tuned to reflect the Libya fields was used for CO2 and HC
Royalty Gross income × 16.67
EOR cases, this total estimate covers the following items:
– Drilling, completion, and tie-in costs for new wells (e.g. Cost of CO2 injection $5.41/bbl of oil
production wells, gas injection wells, water injection Cost of HC injection $11.59/bbl of oil
wells, source water wells, water disposal wells). Deemed gross Oil price × tax reference price
– Convert existing wells (e.g. produces to injectors and vice income × production
versa). (tax reference price factor = 1/3)
– Capital expenditures for new facilities (e.g. compression Depreciation Tangible capital investment/years
facilities for gas injection; high pressure distribution Income tax (Deemed gross income - royalty - operating
system for gas injection; separation, dehydration, and cost - depreciation) × 0.65
purification facilities to process produced gas for re-
Net cash flow Real gross income - capital investment
injection).
- royalty - operating cost - income tax
Operating cost was based on the average operating
Conventional $1.37/bbl
expense figures for “D” field over the period 1993-1999.
operating cost
These are the costs for conventional oil production and
264 Oil & Gas Science and Technology – Rev. IFP, Vol. 57 (2002), No. 3
Table 4 presents the pre-tax and after tax discounted cash The price of oil must exceed $25/bb1 on an after-tax basis
flow results of the base case, CO2 case and HC case. The before CO 2 injection becomes more economical than
largest cost component in the HC solvent is the Natural Gas conventional production (Fig. 1). The incremental after-tax
Liquid (NGL). The NGL cost represents approximately 80% Net Present Value (NPV) for HC injection decrease as the
of the total cost of the HC injection solvent. The after-tax price of oil increases. This is due to a corresponding increase
results indicate that in the current economic climate, in the cost of NGLs for injection. Meanwhile the CO2 price
continued conventional production (i.e., base case) is more sensitivity analysis indicates CO2 must be priced at less than
economical than enhanced oil recovery. Given the large EOR $0.50/MSCF (Thousands of Standard Cubic Feet) on an
production potential, this means that adjustments will be after-tax basis before EOR with CO2 injection is more
required in key input variables (e.g., oil price, tax rate, EOR economical than conventional production (Fig. 2). HC
technology) in order to improve the viability of the EOR
solvent must be priced at less than $1.52/MSCF on an after-
projects. The pre-tax results are much more positive for the
tax basis, or $7.80/MSCF on an pre-tax basis before EOR
EOR developments, although these results can vary
dramatically with the cost of the injection gas. On both a pre- with HC solvent injection is more economical than
tax and after-tax basis, CO2 injection appears to be much conventional production (Fig. 2).
more attractive than HC solvent injection. The large spread
between the pre-tax and after-tax results indicates that tax
incentives (i.e., tax reductions) will likely be required before
10
an EOR project in D field can become economically viable
Incremental disc. cash flow (billion $) CO2: pre-tax
on an after-tax basis. The situation is probably similar for a 8 HC: pre-tax
number of other fields that are EOR candidates. As a result, a CO2: after-tax
6 HC: after-tax
special tax structure will likely be required for EOR project
in general before many of them can proceed. The estimated 4
capital and operating cost per barrel of incremental oil 2
produced in as follows: CO2 injection is $7.14 and HC
0
injection is $13.06. The economics of these projects will
improve with: higher oil prices, improved EOR technology -2
lower cost for gas injection, lower NGL requirements in the -4
HC solvent, inclusion of gas revenues from production and
sale of CO /HC gas, adjustments to the tax structure (lower -6
10 15 20 25 30 35
tax and royalty rates) and produced CO2/HC could be sold Oil/condensate price ($/bbl)
for reuse in other fields. If a respective gas production
forecast could be provided, the economics for the EOR Figure 1
proposals could be improved by including the additional
Oil price sensitivity.
revenue from the sale of this gas.
TABLE 4 15
Incremental disc. cash flow (billion $)
CO2: pre-tax
Discounted cash flow HC: pre-tax
CO2: after-tax
10 HC: after-tax
After-tax Pre-tax
($MM) ($MM)
Base case +754 +9770 5
CO2 case +554 +13 767
3.1.2 Operating Expense Sensitivity 3.1.4 Royalty Rate and Inflation Sensitivity
On an after-tax basis, the base case remains economical as For CO2 injection, the royalty rate must decrease from
operating expenses remain less than $4.50/bb1 (Fig 3). The 16.67% before the after-tax NPV of EOR development
comparable figure for CO 2 injection is $2.75/bbl. HC superior to that for conventional production processes
injection will remain uneconomical even if operating costs (Fig. 6). HC solvent injection will remain uneconomical on
decrease to nil. an after-tax basis, even if the royalty rate is decreased to 0%.
On pre-tax basis, discounted cash flow for both CO2 and HC
3.1.3 Capital Spending and Tax Rate Sensitivity injection will improve as prices and costs increase over time
After-tax returns are negative for all levels of capital on (Fig. 7). On an after-tax basis, the NPV for CO2 injection
EOR. Per-tax discounted cash flow is positive, but drops by will remain constant, while for HC injection the NPV will
$0.68 for every additional dollar of capital spending (Fig. 4). decrease.
Before EOR development economical on an after-tax basis,
3.1.5 General Sensitivity Analysis
the tax rate must decrease from 65% to less than 60%
for CO2 injection or less than 27% for HC solvent injection A general curves to assess before and after tax for both CO2
(Fig. 5). and hydrocarbon gas injection were generated as shown in
20 5
Base: pre-tax CO2: pre-tax
HC: pre-tax Base: after-tax
4
Discounted cash flow (billion $)
Figure 3 Figure 4
Operating expenses sensitivity. Capital spending sensitivity.
6 8
Incremental disc. cash flow (billion $)
5
4 6
3
4
2
1 2 CO2: pre-tax HC: pre-tax
CO2: after-tax HC: after-tax
0
-1 0
-2
CO2: pre-tax HC: pre-tax -2
-3 CO2: after-tax HC: after-tax
-4 -4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Tax rate (%) Royalty rate (%)
Figure 5 Figure 6
8 8
-2
2
-4
-6 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 -60 -30 0 30 60
Yearly increase in prices and costs (%) Change in input variables (%)
Figure 7 Figure 8
Inflation sensitivity. NPV sensitivity, pre-tax, CO2 case.
600 40
After-tax incr. disc. cash flow (billion $)
Oil price
400 CO2 price 35
Capex Pre-tax NPV (billion $)
Opex 30
200 Oil prod.
25
0
20
-200
15 Oil price
HC gas price
-400 10 Capex
Opex
-600 Oil prod.
5
Base case
-800 0
-60 -30 0 30 60 -60 -30 0 30 60
Change in input variables (%) Change in input variables (%)
Figure 9 Figure 10
NPV sensitivity, after-tax, CO2 case. Pre-tax NPV sensitity, hydrocarbon gas.
Opex
2.0 Oil prod.
Base case
3.1.6 General Principles and Premises for EOR
1.5
The main consideration drawn from the cost estimates and the
1.0
financial analysis reported in this study is that: CO2 is to be
0.5 used in the Libya as the main EOR solvent gas, the tertiary
barrel will cost less some $7.14 (in 1996 monies); the financial
0.0
feasibility of EOR by rich hydrocarbon gas injection (to
-0.5 achieve miscible floods in the reservoirs for higher oil
-60 -30 0 30 60
Change in input variables (%)
recovery) depends upon:
– the market damned- supply balance for gas;
Figure 11 – the policy adopted for valuing this gas to impute costs to
After tax NPV sensitivity, hydrocarbon gas. EOR when it is injected into reservoirs.
AY Zekri and KK Jerbi / Economic Evaluation of Enhanced Oil Recovery 267
All initially miscible gas floods for EOR will inevitably injection. The cost of the injection gas is one of the key
turn immiscible because of the injection geometry and will factors affecting the economics of EOR development.
create secondary gas caps. These gas caps will be blown— 4 The large spread between the pre-tax and after tax results
and the recovered gas sold—without regard to GOR, by indicates that tax incentives will likely be required before
treating the former oil reservoir as a gas reservoir and an EOR project can become economically viable on an
recompilations some of the wells. This aspect should be after-tax basis. As a result, before many of these projects
taken into consideration in most of the reservoir profiles and can proceed, a special EOR tax structure will likely be
financial evaluation. The difference is that marketing of the required after-tax situation.
rich hydrocarbon gases as they are first produced or delaying 5 The economic results will improve if produced CO2/HC
their sale until they are first used for EOR have very different gas can be sold for reuse in other areas.
net present value. Where CO 2 is the solvent gas, the
operating company has the choice of re-cycling the produced
gases (CO 2 + Hydrocarbon gas mixture after CO 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
breakthrough) without separation or separating the
hydrocarbons for marketing and internal use (of methane as We thank John Norton of Waha Oil Co. for valuable
compressor fuel). discussions on the sensitivity analysis. Special thanks for the
Management of Waha Oil Company for permission to
publish this work.
CONCLUSIONS