Adh 134 0063

Refugees of the Black Death: Quantifying rural migration
for plague and other environmental disasters

Stuart Borsch, Tarek Sabraa
Dans Annales de démographie historique 2017/2 (n° 134), pages 63 à 93
Éditions Belin
ISSN 0066-2062
ISBN 9782410008678
DOI 10.3917/adh.134.0063
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04_Borsch_mise en page 1 21/12/2017 11:00 page 63
annales de démographie historique 2017 n°2 p. 63 à 93
REFUGEES OF THE BLACK DEATH: QUANTIFYING

RURAL MIGRATION FOR PLAGUE AND
OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTERS
by Stuart BORSCH and Tarek SABRAA
INTRODUCTION, METHODS, AND counting out the demography itself.

SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE What we will do here is to take a brief
look at the scope of scholarship on the
in this article, we will endeavor to Black death and subsequent outbreaks
assess the mortality of the Black death of the so-called “second plague
of 1348 for urban centers in egypt, pandemic” (egypt, 1348-1844 Ce) in
syria and other areas of the middle east the middle east from a demographic
using a new set of analytical tools that standpoint.1
have allowed us to quantify the migra- the formal study of the Black
tion of refugees fleeing from plague- death’s general impact, that of dols’
stricken area. this primary agenda is Black death in the middle east,
discussed below in the context of the included substantial work on the
plague outbreak in Cairo, but for all of demography of this initial plague
the cases we have studied, Cairo, outbreak in 1348 Ce – and it remains
alexandria, gaza, damascus, aleppo, the standard – indeed, one might also
homs, and mecca, we have used the say only – source of reference for the
basic quantitative methods (Keeling and demographic impact of the Black
gilligan plague model) and background death (in the middle east) itself.
information (medieval arabic chroni- having said that, dols was nevertheless
cles, plague treatises, etc.) employed in unable to do more than draw some

two previous analyses of urban plague very general conclusions about the
mortality (Borsch and sabraa, 2016) overall depopulation that resulted from
and rural plague mortality (Borsch, the 1348 outbreak, and though he
2014) in 1400s. discussed the demographic impact of
the Black death of 1347-1350 – and the Black death in Cairo, he, in the
the cycles of plague that followed it end, made a rather anecdotal, if
brought about severe depopulation and informed, conclusion that between
transformed not only egypt but also the one-third and one-half of the inhabi-
middle east as well. one can say at tants of egypt and the middle east in
present that this process of transforma- general, were carried off by this
tion and evolution is only partially outbreak (dols, 1977; Borsch, 2005,
understood, though progress has been 24-5). in a subsequent work, he
made in some areas, albeit there has in engaged in a more extensive discussion
general been more emphasis on the of the Black death in Cairo, though he
plausible economic effect of depopula- again was (understandably) hesitant
tion than on the actual business of about quantifying the very patchy and
63
stuart BorsCh and tareK saBraa
difficult evidence for the Black death specific to plague demography – for the
outbreak itself (dols, 1981, 410-13). mamluk period, the documen-
dols made a more serious attempt to tation of famine mortality that exacer-
quantify two later outbreaks of plague bated and potentiated the mortality of
that took place in the 1400s, analyzing several of these outbreaks has been
the 1430 outbreak in Cairo in detail written up in a noteworthy study by
and beginning work on the 1460 Ce adam sabra (poverty and Charity in
outbreak (dols, 1981, 411-14). dols medieval islam), and should probably
quantitative presentation for 1430 Ce be read as companion to any demo-
is reliable and cogent, but he was reluc- graphic analysis of plague (sabra,
tant to draw specific conclusions from 2000).
the available numbers. dols approach these plague cycles did not end with
to 1430 Ce is discussed briefly below, the ottoman conquest (1517 Ce)
but his admirable work (sadly inter- which serves as the terminal date for
rupted by his tragic early death) on the shoshan, myself, and (for the most
Black death remains overall part) dols, but continued for another
unmatched to this day. three centuries (327 years) down to
Just as dols was working at quantifi- the end of the second plague pandemic
cation, a meticulous study – that in 1844 Ce. scholars who have
appeared in this journal (1981) contributed to the demography for the
comprehensively listed (for the ottoman period include andré
mamluk era, 1250-1517 Ce) every raymond (1972), daniel panzac
single outbreak that followed the Black (1985), alan mikhail (2008), and
death. this meticulous work of docu- nukhet Varlik (2015). the severity of
mentation is more comprehensive and plague does not seem to abate over this
accurate than the tables provided by period of time, but continues with
dols, though scholars have often over- seemingly greater frequency – and
looked it: shoshan’s tables should be greater severity. Frequency is reported
the standard for any scholar beginning by the late eighteenth-century traveler

work on the plague in the middle east. Volney as once every 4½ years, but
he lists all plague outbreaks for egypt panzac shows that ottoman plague
(and syria), including minor outbreaks were much more frequent
outbreaks, outbreaks confined to than Volney’s estimate: about one
upper egypt, and outbreaks that may every 2½ years, with 59 plague
have been (he carefully notes) some- outbreaks occurring between 1700 Ce
thing other than plague. the resulting and 1844 Ce. (Volney, 1787, iii:
reported recurrence of plague (after the 254). the table below lists the
Black death of 1348 Ce to the end of frequency of plague outbreaks in
the mamluk period in 1517 Ce) is one egypt over the course of the second
outbreak every two years for egypt plague pandemic, where the total
(exactly 73 outbreaks in 169 years, one number of outbreaks, 210, may be the
per 2.31 years) and one outbreak every largest for the global history of the
four years for syria (exactly second plague pandemic.
41 outbreaks in 169 years, one per despite the progress that has been made
4.12 years). lastly – though it is not in an effort to understand mortality’s scale
64
reFugees oF the BlaCK death: quantiFying rural migration
tab. 1 Frequency of plague outbreaks (1348-1844 Ce)

interval Ce Frequency no. of outbreaks
1348 1516 2.32 73
1517 1700 2.37 78
1701 1844 2.42 59
total 210
and scope and the socioeconomic include the middle east in its scope.
impact of the Black death in the Finally, via the sharing of ideas – parti-
middle east, our knowledge of mortal- cularly in the arena of methodology,
ity losses in this relatively small sub-field middle east historians stand to benefit
of middle eastern history lags far from the larger literature of plague
behind the progress that has been made specialization for european history.
in european history. this is further Before leaving this survey of the exis-
hampered by the relative reluctance of ting literature, and discussing our most
middle east historians to engage in – or recent work (with respect to the
with – quantitative analysis of any sort, mamluk field, and dols in particular)
whether that be in the area of demogra- the general question should be asked:
phy, or economics, or environ- why was the second plague pandemic so
mental data analysis. unfortunately, particularly severe – and prolonged – for
this problem seems to be getting worse egypt in particular? there are some
rather than better, as the current genera- ready answers from historians of
tion of middle eastern scholars is even medieval and more particularly – early
less enthusiastic about engaging the modern europe, some of them quite
hard sciences than the generation that solid, others not. the alternation of
preceded them, quite to the contrary of urban structure, adoption of quarantine
european history. nevertheless, the few measures, and improved sanitation over
who do work in this neglected area can the course of the early modern period in

greatly benefit from the progress that is europe seemed to have had a substantial
being made in the study of the Black an impact. an example from the mid-
death and the second plague pandemic twentieth century examines a less severe
in europe. For one thing, the case of outbreaks of plague in the us
pronounced upward trend in mortality city of Baltimore (third plague
estimates for losses in europe has been pandemic) that accompanied sanitation
useful for our analysis (alfani and problems and a relatively high density of
murphy, 2017, 318-26), as it at least rats and is instructive as the cases there
provided us with more confidence in fell dramatically following the improve-
dealing with the very high epidemic ment of sanitation measures. (the
mortality totals we had been deriving report from 1951 documents the reduc-
from regression of numbers from the tion of rat population within a fixed
medieval arabic texts. From this area from 400,000 in 1947 to 65,000 in
perspective as well, work is underway in 1949 via “rehabilitation of substandard
an organized international effort to put dwellings” and “cleaning and repairing”,
together a mortality database that will american Journal of public health,
65
1951, 162). the wide-ning of streets the 1430 outbreak, as noted above,
and change in building materials (away inspired us to do our own quantitative
from the more uniform use of wood) analysis (Borsch and sabraa, 2016) of
certainly contributed as well (Varlik, these two outbreaks (as well as the 1416
2015, 2-4, 17-54). But egypt’s experi- and 1419 outbreaks, both of which are
ence was different, as it continued to discussed in passing below) in which we
experience debilitating demographic drew the general conclusion – based on
shocks from plague nearly two centuries the regression of mortality data
after the plague outbreaks had mostly furnished by two different government
ceased in europe. agencies that documented the number
yet the story here does not seem to of fatalities – that the mamluk regime’s
hinge upon roadmaps of development – daily urban fatality rates and cumulative
on comparisons between economic mortality counts – as redacted by
advancement, east and west, and this is medieval arab historians – are a reliable
not a chapter out of the great diver- repository of for accurate plague demo-
gence: the idea is that there may have graphy, for the most part (that is for a
been something particular to egypt as a substantial portion of the 42 outbreaks
location. it lies outside the scope of this that we have studied for the mamluk
article’s focus to dwell on the factors period). We regressed our data for this
which we suspect may have been deter- 2016 study using the Keeling and gilli-
mined by geography, specifically the
gan plague model, having been inspired
geography of the alluvial flood plain.
by the 2009 example of monecke and
among many other factors, the nile allu-
monecke for the 1600s Freiburg
vium was naturally used by the inhabi-
outbreak, as was the Xavier didelot et
tants of egypt and served as the building
structure for rural and much urban hous- al. study of a napoleonic era outbreak
ing as well. an early 1900s study of in Cairo (Keeling and gilligan, 2000;
upper egypt, one that looked closely at monecke and monecke, 2009; Borsch
the other – non-human – inhabitants of and sabraa, 2016; didelot et al. 2017).
the death tolls that we found, particu-

these dwellings (i.e. rodents, including
rattus rattus, among other species) and larly for 1430 and 1460, were very high
noted that the manner in which the relative to our estimate of Cairo’s 1400s
material and connected architecture of population. (the “mamluk Cairo”
the mud-brick housing was exceptionally sector studied was estimated to hold
favorable to rodents, who could be found some 200,000, while losses were for
in very high density (greater than 10,000 1430 about 90,000, for 1460 about
per square kilometer) in the areas studied 80,000.) (Borsch and sabraa, 2016, 90)
(Bacot, 1914, 498-508). the flea popu- the recurrence of such very high
lation was commensurably higher, and mortality on a frequent basis through
may have been driven by additional the course of the mamluk period, and
geographically specific factors as well indeed through the ottoman as well, is
(petrie, 1924). hard to account for (panzac, 1985;
lastly, our own recent research raymond, 1972). this is something we
informs our attempts at quantification look closely for the case of the Black
in this study. dols’ work on quantifying death in Cairo.
66
THE BLACK DEATH plague to mesopotamia and iran, where

IN THE MIDDLE EAST it inflicted mass casualties on the host
populations. it struck egypt and came
When yersinia pestis returned to the to Cairo in the winter of 749/1348-9
middle east after its long absence, it and in that year also infected arabia,
returned as a stranger, in altered form. in decimating mecca. Further southward,
2005, we hypothesized there was a single it reached yemen, even as it spread west-
“mutant strain of y. pestis (that was) ward through north africa to islamic
capable of being transmitted far more spain.
easily than earlier or modern strains of When it then comes to the particular
the disease” (Borsch, 2005, 6-9) but it is case of egypt, the Black death was
now clear that there were several strains ushered in by what would soon become a
that emerged between the first and commonality and source of legend on
second plague pandemics (the interval mediterranean shores – a ship of
from the mid-700s to the mid-1300s). corpses – a drifting and lifeless ship of
What might be loosely described as a dead and diseased bodies (or almost such,
kind of “genetic explosion” (the actual with 62 dead and only five survivors –
term is polytomy) took place shortly and these very sick and barely clinging to
before the Black death itself – and life) (suluk 2: 776). We are not told by
several new strains emerged from the the sources where this ship actually came
original bacterium. from, but we can guess - given the histor-
inwardly and outwardly transformed, ical trajectory of the disease, Constan-
plague came back into the middle east tinople would have been the most likely
via multiple routes. nukhet Varlik’s suspect. the Black death – proceeding
recent work maps out the arrival of from Crimea in 1346 Ce, had already
yersinia pestis, and its routes of entry done most of its awful work in that city
into the middle east, “[…] the infec- by this time – and given the regular trade
tion spread, not by a single trajectory, routes in use, and that this was 1347 Ce
but rather in multiple directions on the still, it seems more than probable (Varlik,

sea and over land [...] the sea journey of 2015, 98-9; dols, 1974, 444; dols,
the Black death first carried it to 1977, 35-67).
Constantinople, to the aegean and east- We can examine this more carefully by
ern mediterranean port cities and taking recourse to information from later
islands, such as alexandria and Cyprus plague outbreaks. though ibn
[…] the infection also seems to have taghribirdi, in the latter 1400s, makes a
spread southward along the eastern clear point about the regularly observed
shores of the Black sea, into the Cauca- pattern that will be seen here, Volney’s
sus and the anatolian peninsula, and eighteenth-century description of the
further south into syria.” (Varlik, regularity has more detail gleaned from
2015). By the spring of 748-9/1348, the the port of alexandria in particular, and
plague had spread to syria (dols, 1974, his description of the deadly process, of
448-9). ibn Baṭṭūṭa reported on its yersinia pestis’ well-worn conduit of
arrival in homs and damascus (dols, transmission in the second plague
1977, 218-19). at the same time, an pandemic, reads as if a road map for the
army besieging Baghdad spread the arrival of the Black death itself.
67
“the european merchants who have template, an informational infrastruc-

been settled for many years at alexandria ture that will allow us to take the bare
concur with the egyptians in declaring and isolated data points of the 1300s
that plague never proceeds from the inte- and put them into a meaningful
rior parts of the country but first makes its context. this quantitative context will
appearance, on the coast, at alexandria; help us to see the missing pieces of the
from alexandria it passes to rosetta, from larger puzzle that surrounds the isolated
rosetta to Cairo, from Cairo (northward 1300s data and -it puts us in a position
again) to damietta, and through the rest where we can make estimates about
of the delta. they further observe that it missing data, fill in some of the gaps,
is invariably preceded by the arrival of and quantify mortality for the Black
some vessel coming from smyrna or death.
Constantinople; and that if the plague has
been violent in one of those cities during alexandria
the summer, the danger is greater for
For the city of alexandria, egypt’s
themselves the following winter. it
first major population center struck by
appears certain that it originates from
the Black death in the spring of 1348
Constantinople […] the ships which go
(749 ah), daily fatality rates were
to alexandria never fail to carry furs and
recorded as roughly 100 dead per day in
woolen clothes purchased on those occa-
sions […] the greeks who deal in these the early phase of the plague outbreak,
goods are almost always the first victims.” rising to 200 per day as the epidemic
(Volney, 1787, 253). intensified. the peak fatality rate was
With this deadly cargo, the Black reported by al-maqrīzī to be 700 per
death in egypt began. (proceedings of day (al-maqrīzī, Kitāb al-sulūk, 2: 777).
the national academy of sciences, ibn Battuta however gives a higher
2004, 8413) it set upon alexandria, and figure peak of 1,080 deaths per day.
then spread widely – across the fan of (ibn Battuta, Book of travels). in this
the nile delta. instance, given the fact that ibn

Battuta’s figure does not appear to be
rounded – and given his accurate
QUANTIFYING THE BLACK DEATH reporting of other quantitative informa-
proceeding by using the better-docu- tion (e.g. his prior investigation into the
mented and data-richer 1400s as our exceptionally, but ultimately explicable
instructors – instructors that guide and logical, high land revenue – ìbra –
toward the quantification of the data- value for the village district – nāḥiya – of
poor 1300s, we apply our knowledge of nearby tarruja) – his reported peak
how they recorded mortality data at this fatality rate was used to help construct
time, in what ratios and with what the plague curve. (though it should be
percentages periodic death counts were noted that accurate death tolls can
recorded relative to the cumulative become rounded – especially when
death total counts, how often death transmitted from person to person
counts were taken, and how a typical orally, as happens with quantitative
plague daily fatality curve looked. We information traveling along the path of
apply these factors as a working an epidemic). the plague curve yielded
68
Fig. 1 map of mamluk (upper-right insert) and late ottoman (center insert) alexandria
notes: (1 - lower left, 1300s, before the beginning of the second plague pandemic, the city of anti-
quity) and (2 – upper left, 1700s, during the second plague pandemic, new settlement on the isthmus
of pharos).
the images above show two cities of alexandria, the old and the new, on map overlays in google earth
(French expedition maps, c. 1801 Ce).
1.old alexandria, which contained, an area large enough to accommodate its plausible maximum
population of some 121,600 at 400 persons per hectare in a total urban area measuring 304 hectares

(3.04 km²)
2. the inhabitants by this time almost all lived in the white bordered area on the isthmus of pharos (to
the west of the old city).2 this built up area measured some 82.2 ha (0,822 km²). assuming 250-
300 persons per hectare for the low-slung buildings of 1700s alexandria, the maximum sustainable
population level would have been some 22,605 persons. records indicate that there were substantially
less than that, with figures varying between 6,000 and 8,000 inhabitants.
a cumulative raw mortality of 52,500 after the Black death (reimer, 1997a,
and 49,875 plague fatalities, assuming a 1997b, 23). What we can do is estimate
Crude death rate of 5%. if this is a the likely population level from other
reasonable approximation of the total statistics. narratives by arab scholars
fatalities, what was the percent mortality and information from european travel-
for alexandria in the Black death? the ers indicate that the city in the 1300s
problem is that we lack reliable figures had a large textile industry, for which we
for the period immediately preceding get some useful numbers that largely
the Black death, though its population agree with one another. there seem to
is estimated to have been some 50,000 have been some 12,000 to
69
14,000 textile workers in the city and 341-7). it should be noted that the
approximately 8,000 textiles workshops. reference to gaza (as iqlīm ghazza)
From these numbers, which are would indicate not just the urban zone
reported as sharply lower (only itself, but also the villages and other
800 textile workers) for the 1400s, we rural areas surrounding it.
can estimate plausible population levels, regarding both alexandria and gaza,
in part by deriving a figure for the whole there are some general rules and guide-
of the adult male population from the lines that can be constructed for reading
number of textile workers reported. a numbers from the medieval arabic texts.
general ratio for the share of textile labor First, from the common patterns
(24%) in the urban workforce (Bulliet, witnessed for the rounding of numbers –
2009, 3) can thus be used to estimate and the oddities of scribal error – we can
that alexandria had some see that the rounding of figures, either by
105,000 inhabitants, which then the writer – or by route of oral transmis-
provides us with the mortality (48%) sion to the writer – or by scribes – seems
for the Black death in alexandria. to become frequent as the numbers grow
larger in scale. Figures in the hundreds
gaza or greater that were clearly based on an
accurate original could very often get
a comparison with another coastal rounded over time, by copyists, so that it
population center is informative in this would not be unusual for an accurate
context, and help us along the way in figure in the vicinity of 22,000 to be
assessing the case of alexandria. For reduced, over time, to just 22,000.3 in
gaza – on the southern coast of the some cases however, the records for
levant, a single but official figure, is outbreaks include the use of frequently
given for Black death casualties (though seen quantifications that tend to convey
information from ibn Battuta is again a very general sense of scale, but are
useful here). the mortality comes from probably not of great utility for accuracy,
the record book of the nā’ib (local and these generally involve scaling by

governor) of gaza as reported in al- digit – or the equivalent of digit as
maqrīzī’s chronicle. though the cumu- arabic text. the reporting of either daily
lative number of deaths is rounded, the fatality rates or total fatalities that have
time interval is bounded by precise dates values of 100, 1000, or (more rarely)
(2 muharram 749 to 4 safar 749 in the 100,000 (to lesser degree this applies to
muslim calendar: 33 days from 10 april 200, 2000, and 200,000), which seem to
through 12 may of 1348 Ce, gregorian grow in a frequency roughly propor-
proleptic calendar) (al-maqrīzī, Kitāb tional to the time interval between
al-sulūk, 2: 775). the total number of medieval arab historian and the plague
dead for this interval was reported to be outbreak itself, are – in a sense –
22,000. ibn Kathīr gives the approxi- “suspect” numbers that need to be
mate figure of “tens of thousands” of treated as very rough indicators of scale.
deaths from plague over the course of While global quantifications can still be
what appears to be the same interval for attempted – in accordance with certain
which the nā’ib of gaza made his report general rules – with alexandria and gaza
(ibn Kathīr, al-Bidāya wa- ‘l-nihāya 16: we are on firmer ground.
70
Fig. 2 map of gaza and the surrounding area in the late ottoman period
22,000 for gaza is unlikely as an mortality of (4,652), displayed via graph

invention for scaling purposes; 1,000 on the next page. and while most scho-
would be much more common. in all lars who (sensibly) be a bit skeptical of
likelihood, the alternate fatality peak for our reaching a total death toll from this
alexandria, 700 per day, also reflects single figure, especially given our very
reality, perhaps as a secondary peak in sketchy knowledge of the 1400s popula-

the outbreak. in fact, a single rounded tion level of this provincial city, we
figure for peak mortality – applied to found – several months later – in
the plague curve methodology we are another text by another author – a
using, which employs the Keeling and reported figure for the total mortality.
gilligan (2000) plague model, among While this number was rounded as
other instruments – can be very useful – well (to the hundreds: 4,400 cumulative
and as it turns out, close to the mark. an deaths), it was also in very fair proximity
example from a large-scale plague to our figure and would have frankly
outbreak in 1430 Ce is helpful here. been quite an exercise for a writer to
For his outbreak, we had the unlikely derive, if they had had the peak fatality
and rounded (at least to the tens) peak rate, which they ostensibly did not. For
fatality rate of (140) recorded for the this projection back in time to the desk
provincial nile delta capital of minūf of the 1400s chronicler, try pen on an
al-ùlyā. From this we derived – via utterly blank sheet of paper (devoid of
plague curve alone – an estimated total Cartesian coordinate markings) and
71
Fig. 3 daily plague fatalities plotted for the town of minuf al-ùlya (1407 Ce)
then curving, splining, and painfully rounded to 1,100 deaths per day, the
adding up areas under curves manually other is the suspect number 1,000
sketched out in projected arcs to indi- (deaths per day). however, two things
cate rise and fall, given only one data lead us to believe that his report – even if
point in a sea of 90 data points for the it contained approximations – was quite
rates of change - stretching out over the accurate. one is that he is quite
average outbreak duration of (three emphatic about the scale of devastation
months). as invention that just in gaza after the Black death – he
happened to come close to the second emphasizes that gaza was struck so hard
figure (the peak rate of 140) – whether by this outbreak that it was largely
that second number was itself real or empty of inhabitants after the plague

imagined – it would have been an exer- swept through. he also provides another
cise in the statistically impossible. then, mortality figure, this one specific to one
vice-versa, the peak figure would have particular profession – notaries: he
been similarly impossible to obtain by informs us that a full three-quarters (60
the same exhausting and unnecessary out of 80) of the notaries who were in
exercise. if one wanted to invent gaza were carried off by the outbreak.
numbers, one could, and chroniclers Finally, when his peak fatality numbers
did, but not these numbers, and – one are used to construct a plague curve, one
can say more generally – not with with an assumed duration of some four
anything like the frequency with which months, his peak fatality rates seem to
they are accused of doing so.4 (dols, account very well for the reported
1981, 409-11). 22,000 deaths over a 33-day interval. if
lastly for gaza, ibn Baṭūṭa provides us the nā’ib’s figures were based on counts
with useful supplemental information made close to the time of these two peak
and what appear to be peak fatality rates. fatalities, the area under the curve sums
he lists two of them, and though one is up the 22,000 deaths perfectly.
72
Cairo and the nile delta were fleeing from – and given what they
would have seen and experienced when
the nile delta was the center stage
the plague struck their villages.
for the Black death (“al-wabā’ al-
more than any other environmental
`āmm”) in egypt, as mortality on the
disaster that struck egypt in the pre-
floodplain and the disruption of village
modern period, the Black death must
infrastructure spurred rural flight and
have set large numbers in motion: We
rural migration, which in turn shaped know from descriptive accounts (of
the outcome in Cairo (àbd al-Bāsiṭ, emptied provincial capitals like Bilbays
nayl, 1: 177). this disruption of village in the delta’s east) and some limited
life was not just material, it was psycho- quantitative data (a count of the losses
logical as well. though not quantifiable, among rural cultivators in certain areas)
the mental status of egypt’s rural culti- that the rural mortality was unprece-
vators concerns us here – precisely dented in scale and scope. it also seems
because this rural psychology holds the clear that this particular manifestation
key to quantifying the Cairo outbreak, of plague, coming long after plague
as will be seen below. cycles from the first plague pandemic
By the late spring of 1348 Ce, the had abated and subsided, was something
explosive outbreak that had begun with of an awful novelty. it was in a very real
one mysteriously quiet ship was quickly sense new and unknown. this was after
spreading outward from its point of all in essence a new and different
transmission. moving beyond alexan- disease, from a new, altered, and more
dria, the Black death swept through the virulent form of yersinia pestis. it there-
nile delta, fanning out over the flat fore seems entirely reasonable to
terrain in the summer of 1348 Ce and suppose that between these two – the
sending out stories ahead of its advanc- known (mortality) and the unknown
ing front. at first, no doubt many (the dimensions of this new experience)
thought these stories fantastic and unbe- the aggregate mental state of fear and
lievable – so unreal and horrible they trauma experienced in the summer of

must have been in their scope. as the 1348 was substantially greater than that
summer wore on and the plague contin- witnessed in any of the other outbreaks
ued to spread outward, a decisive shift of the second plague pandemic.
in collective rural mentality would have in more general terms, we know from
taken place and most people, even those many other accounts that rural flight
still at some distance from the advanc- was a common collective response to
ing pestilence, would have started to environmental disaster in egypt. it
credit everything they heard, no matter could quickly take on huge dimensions
how fantastic. the terrified inhabitants anywhere where there was trouble, and
of villages still untouched by the Black plague was not the only thing that made
death would in all likelihood have done villagers flee from stricken home to
everything they could to frighten away imagined safe-haven: famine had
the trembling and febrile survivors flee- perhaps an even stronger pull. William
ing from the advancing plague. it would tucker’s research notes that these twin
have taken a lot to scare away these evils were “intimately related” in their
frightened rural refuges, given what they capacity not only to kill but also to
73
induce mental “stress” events (tucker, cleaning, and other more immediate
1986, 215-6) psychological states that sanitary measures, quickly became a
among other things drove people to flee matter of memory only. mokyr and
from their home villages. Ó gráda factored in to their accoun-
in the case of gaza above, we were ting the overall mortality the effect
informed by the cases of 1416 and that this had on the spread of disease.
1419 Ce. the 1416 Ce disaster was indeed, rural flight had a substantial
actually more than just a plague impact on mortality as consequence of
outbreak, it was a famine as well – and the awful and often exponentially
one where these two phenomena, worsening reality that it was to be a
however they may have been inti- rural refugee. stricken by malnutrition
mately connected by causation and and slow starvation, or – worse yet –
other factors – had their own inde- contracting plague, these refugees with
pendent mortality trajectories that had their febrile conditions and weakened
to be quantified. (al-maqrīzī, Kitāb al- immune systems must have greatly
sulūk, 4: 330 to 349, (al-maqrīzī, exacerbated their openness to either
Kitāb al-sulūk, 4: 330 to 349; ibn famine or plague mortality.
hajar inbā’. 7: 185 – 205, inbā’ al- in fact, for this particular famine year
ghumr, 7: 185 – 205; adam sabra, in 1400s egypt, set off as it was by
poverty, 155-8, ibn iyās, al-Bidā’; ī‛ al- somewhat mysterious circumstances as
zuhūr, 2: 26; ibn taghrībirdī, al- the nile flood could hardly be blamed
nujūm al-ẓāhira, 14: 41)). the famine for what ensued in its wake, there was a
of 1416, which actually began in very large throng and their numbers are
1415, summoned a huge throng of of great significance here – as this was,
desperate and hungry rural refugees, in the scheme of things, a minor famine,
growing more unsanitary by the hour and yet they were – on the docks of
and by the day, and all too often Bulaq north – west of Cairo, in the tens
diseased as well. mokyr and Ó gráda, of thousands5 (al-maqrīzī, Kitāb al-
in their 1999 study of the irish potato sulūk, 4: 318-20). there is no reason to

Famine of 1846-50, in which ireland doubt that they were extreme in
lost close to forty percent of its popu- numbers, but let us imagine something
lation, when migration (12%) is added like 25,000 for argument’s sake. the
to mortality (23%) in the estimate, mortality curve is reproduced below,
discuss the matter of rural refuges, with the tiny famine’s scope in grey so
though not termed as such, the over- that it might convey a sense of the rela-
whelming majority of them were quite tive scale here: even this lesser event
rural at this time and place. in this could summon great numbers. they
business of leaving their homes, and were all at risk, but hardly had relief
fleeing to a safe haven, or more often arrived before the plague swept in and
simply an imagined one, they aban- made things much worse (al-maqrīzī,
inbāʾ al-ghumr, 7: 185-205; sabra,

doned along with all else the sanitation Kitāb al-sulūk, 4: 330-349; ibn hajar,
2000, 155-8, ibn iyās, Badāʾiʿ al-zuhūr,

that home life – and what were then
quite primitive facilities in rural nine-
ẓāhira, 14: 41).

teenth century ireland – for a long 2: 26; ibn taghrībirdī, al-nujūm al-
trek on the road where washing and
74
Fig. 4 plague and Famine daily Fatalities (1415-1416 Ce)
evidence for plagues shows that rural particular disaster, the psychological
flight reactions could be just as marked. profile of “stress” was far greater in
mikhail (2008) describes the reaction to scope than ever before because in this
the plague that struck egypt at the end particular disaster, the inhabitants of
of the ottoman period in 1791, when egypt were taken completely by surprise
endless numbers of desperate refugees and knew next to nothing about this
came streaming into Cairo, desperately new and exceptionally lethal variant of
looking for help of some kind, plague that had suddenly appeared in
convinced by others that it was to be their midst. this means they had no
had amid the imagined wonders of reference point – nothing to look to as a
urban facilities, like the hospitals guide at least, as they would in later
(bimaristans) where treatments that outbreaks. most importantly, they did
were sometimes – though just as often not know the profile of the disaster – in

not – quite sophisticated for their time terms of duration, signs that might be
might be had. For plague, as we know the expected moment of abatement – or
today, there was absolutely nothing that anything else that would tell them it was
anyone could do, but a whole range of anything but infinite in scope.
treatments, mainly with various foods, thus, all of these considerations point
like summer crop produce in the range toward the conclusion that rural flight
of melon, or the sugar produced in reached exceptional proportions in the
egypt, that was still a rarity for the Black death outbreak, proportions
world as a whole back then. the rumor quite possibly not seen on other occa-
of things that could cure drew vast sions. given the potential scale of rural
crowds. to urban migration and viewing this in
the discussion as it applies to the light of the very high mortality figures
Black death in Cairo boils down to two for this outbreak, we have attempted
things: (1) there was a natural tendency here to apply a new method of quantify-
of rural dwellers to flee to Cairo when ing urban plague mortality, one that
trouble became acute and (2) in this factors in the death of rural migrants.
75
the notion of including and attempting begin with, it turns out that since these
to quantify the plague deaths of rural rural migrants were in the vast majority
migrants was suggested by current without property in the eyes of the
research on the Black death in europe, inheritance bureau they were not
but by dint of circumstances both counted by this institution. they were
geographical and institutional, it seems however, counted, along with everyone
particularly suited to the case of egypt else, property or not, by the oratories.
and more broadly, the islamic middle What makes the difference between
east.6 the argument for egypt is that these counts valuable quantitatively is
due its caging geography (i.e. the the ratio between the two, and apparent
bounding effect of the desert within the fact that the ratio decreases in relative
context of nile flood fertility) Cairo proportion to the scale of the plague
would have exerted a stronger gravita- outbreak. What seems clear to us now is
tional pull on rural refugees than might that the correlation between rising
be expected for urban capitals elsewhere. urban plague mortality and falling insti-
But if geography suggests that it tutional ratio reflects the number of
might be valuable to quantify rural rural migrants that were dying in the
flight to the city, institutional factors city during these outbreaks. the dispar-
(particular to islamic civilization) are ity between these two death counts –
what really makes the case here. after driven by divergent institutional
all, even if geography suggests that rural concerns – thus allows us to quantify
migrants to the city left a large quantita- rural flight. lastly, the existence of an
tive signature in the urban death tolls, apparent upper threshold in this ratio,
this by itself does not allow us to ac- which is seen in outbreaks with low
tually quantify their numbers. until cumulative mortality – and which seems
now we have had no way of distinguish- to indicate a mortality level at which
ing between the death of urban inhabi- there was negligible rural-to-urban
tants and the deaths of transient rural flight, gives us a constant – which we
migrants. the data that was collected by term the urban property Constant –

bureaucrats and other temporary wor- that allows us to factor out the number
kers says nothing overtly about the of non-propertied urban inhabitants
geographical origins of the plague (urban paupers) for the plague
victims, so we are left with only the outbreaks in which rural flight was
more anecdotal and descriptive accounts substantial.
that describe in approximate terms the We know from the descriptive
scale of rural to urban flight (such as evidence that rural flight was seldom
“tens of thousands” for the 1415-1416 reported – and presumably left very few
plague and famine). how can we count numbers – when the outbreak was mild.
their numbers? the conclusion would For some outbreaks like the well-docu-
seem to be that it cannot be done. mented 1419 Ce epidemic, where rural
one would think this would be the migration into the city can be presumed
end of the story, but due to a fortunate to have been at a negligible level, count-
idiosyncrasy in the institutions of ing ratios between the two agencies
medieval islam that counted the dead – hover around a value of .7. this ratio is
it seems that we can do this after all. to what we take as the urban property
76
Constant, meaning a constant for the index of real wages for unskilled urban
given year, relative to the inheritance labor (in kg of grain) relative to a base-
bureau-to-oratory ratio for the plague line in the early 1300s Ce. real wages –
outbreak itself. this constant – a divi- on average – manifested an overall
ding line between the haves and have substantial and sustained decrease over
nots – is actually determined by two the course of the second plague
things (1) the ratios for small outbreaks pandemic (1348-1844) though there
where rural flight is negligible (e.g. .7 were some periods of (relative) recovery
for 1419 Ce above), adjusted by (2) a (early ottoman era) (Borsch, Wage
factor for the change in urban poverty data set, /https://sites.google.com/site
over time, which is quantified as an /egyptsim).
Fig. 5 real Wage index for unskilled labor
For the early 1400s, the line appears flight into the city. so given the particu-
from the data to have been such that lar nature of these two counting agen-
70% of the urban inhabitants had some- cies, what we know about rural flight in

thing of property that made them worth it material and psychological manifesta-
counting (in the eyes of the inheritance tion, and the fact that we have a baseline
bureau) while 30% did not. then when for the numbers of urban non-proper-
the scale of outbreak increases with more tied, the difference in the ratio of death
severe plague epidemics, this annual counts across the two agencies: for the
property baseline becomes quite impor- early 1400s, .7 minus .5 or .7 minus .4
tant. the ratio of inheritance bureau etc. allows us to make an approximate
deaths to oratory deaths falls to levels count of rural migration into the city –
between .2 and .3. though there are and hence to correct the daily and cumu-
other factors involved, it seems clear that lative fatalities for these outbreaks, in
the rather consistent behavior of this such a way that the totals can start to
ratio according to outbreak scale, falling make sense.
where we expect to see more rural flight, the pattern of rural flight is neverthe-
rising back up where we would expect to less uneven, with bureau to oratory ratios
see less is a quantitative measure of rural falling during the course of the outbreak
77
itself as well. the psychological impact of 70% of urban population

the large-scale plague outbreaks – with Cp2= urban pauper constant (1-.7 =.3),
fear stemming from the new and the urban paupers’ constant at 30% of urban
unknown – panic grounded in the excep- population
tionally high mortality rate – created a Cp2/1= constant ratio of urban paupers
powerful stimulus for rural to urban relative to urban propertied (= .3/.7 =.42)
flight. But there were also more definite as applied below
physical considerations that would have We then used the following variables
been important as well: when mortality in for quantification:
a village reached a certain level, a certain nu= urban population = np1+np2=
extreme, the village would reach this urban propertied + urban paupers
tipping point where drastically reduced np1= urban propertied population=
population could no longer manage the 70% of urban population as approxi-
basic infrastructure. Flight on these more mate constant (Cp1= .7)
physical terms would have been a np2= urban pauper population = 30%
grounded consideration. the highly of urban population as approximate
uneven nature of rural plague mortality constant (Cp2= .3)
would have brought many villages to this nrm= transitory population of rural
tipping point much more quickly than a migrants inside the city
smooth and even distribution of the dt= # total deaths taking place within
mortality. rural plague mortality, as ibn the city boundaries =du+drm= urban
taghrībirdī and other chroniclers point deaths and rural migrant deaths
out, took the form of uneven and episodic du= # of deaths of the urban popu-
progression over nile delta and nile lation =dp1+dp2
Valley terrain. this uneven distribution dp1= # of deaths of the urban
was like the punctuated equilibrium of propertied
evolutionary biology, albeit with refer- dp2= # of deaths of the urban
ence to space, rather than time. “it would paupers
spare one village entirely,” ibn drm= # of deaths of the rural migrants

taghrībirdī noted in 1460, “while utterly do= # of deaths recorded at the orato-
destroying its neighbor.” (ibn ries= dt=du+drm= urban deaths and
taghrībirdī, al-nujūm, 4: 92-3) rural migrant deaths and rural migrant
to analyze the actual data, we started with deaths
the baseline for property established by the db=# of deaths at bureau of inheri-
low-scale outbreak. these baseline condi- tance= dp1=deaths of urban propertied
tions can be represented mathematically as: rb/o= bureau ratio = deaths recorded
Cp1= urban property constant (fixed .7 at the bureau of inheritance divided by
upper limit), property holders constant at deaths recorded at the oratories
as an example of how the calculations (1413, 1416, 1419 Ce), ones where raw
play out, the following relationships can be cumulative mortality was on the order of
used. the constants here are derived from 10% to 20% (and rural migration to the
early 1400s lower intensity plague outbreaks city assumed to be negligible).
78
the first step is to calculate the number constants (Cp1, Cp2) above for simpli-
of urban propertied deaths (dp1). city sake, these two values are in fact
starting with data for deaths at the computed for each outbreak as a func-
oratories [do], the next step is to deter- tion of the year in which the outbreak
mine the ratio of bureau deaths to took place, whereby the urban property
oratory deaths [rb/o], using bureau constant falls from the late 1300s to the
deaths data ideally [db= # of deaths at early 1500s, and the urban pauper
bureau of inheritance] or (absent that constant rises. For this example, and for
data for the outbreak in question) calcu- the Black death below, we use the
lating the bureau-to-oratory deaths ratio constants values as follows:
(rb/o) via our regression for the ratio Cp1= urban property constant (fixed .7
(rb/o) as a function of plague outbreak upper limit), property holders constant at
raw cumulative fatalities, i.e. the sum 70% of urban population
total of deaths at the oratories (do). We Cp2= urban pauper constant (1-.7 =
also note that the regression equation .3), urban paupers’ constant at 30% of
included an adjustment factor for falling urban population
per-capita incomes in the period 1350- Cp2/1= constant ratio of urban paupers
1517. the fall in agrarian production in relative to urban propertied (= .3/.7 =
the 1400s was accompanied by a .42) as applied below
substantial decrease in both urban and the ratio can then be used to derive
rural wages. though we introduced the number of urban propertied deaths,
recalling first that,
if there is a reported has a raw cumu- Cp2/1= constant ratio of urban

lative of 50,000 deaths counted by the paupers relative to urban propertied
oratory, and a bureau ratio of (.45), (= .3/.7 = .42)
then: thus:

urban propertied deaths = d p2 = d p2 *( C p2/3 )=(22,500)*(.42)=
dp1= 22,500 deaths recorded at the 9,450
bureau of inheritance = db=do* rb/o the Which gives us the numbers of both
second step is to calculate the number of (drm) rural migrant deaths and (du)
urban pauper deaths, to obtain the total total urban deaths which if divided by the
urban deaths from the two, recalling that approximate urban population (estimated
dt = # total deaths taking place within the at 200,000 for mamluk Cairo in this
city boundaries =du+drm= urban deaths example gives us an actual urban morta-
and rural migrant deaths, where lity of 16%. rural migrants (18,050) are
du=dp1+dp2= urban propertied deaths assumed to account for roughly 36% of
+ urban pauper deaths. With the urban the deaths counted at the oratories.
propertied deaths now obtained via du= # of deaths in the urban popula-
either data or calculation from the equation =dp1+dp2=du= 22,500 + 9,450 =
tion above, one can further calculate 31,950
urban pauper deaths using the constant drm= # of deaths of the rural migrants
expression = do- du= 50,000 – 31,950 = 18,050
79
When the raw figure for mortality in particularly raymond (1972), panzac
this scenario (25%) is compared with (1985) and mikhail (2008) for the
that obtained via this method (16%) it ottoman period. For five of the plague
can be seen that the resulting mortality outbreaks of the mid-1440s, the results
is substantially lower. as was noted and calculations are shown in this table.
above, for the large-scale outbreaks, the
it is hoped that this new method
raw mortality figures are often so high,
might now allow for a realistic assess-
as swollen by rural numbers, that they
have been a major stumbling block in ment of long-term mortality and
our attempts to quantify the second demography for the second plague
plague pandemic in egypt and the pandemic in the middle east (1348-
middle east, and for those who have 1844/6 Ce) – but that begins with the
labored with these figures before, mortality of the Black death in Cairo.
tab. 2 institutional ratio method applied to large-scale plague outbreaks (1400s Ce)
paupers/
Cumulative inheritance Bureau urban propertied real Wage urban property urban pauper
year Ce proper-
oratory deaths /oratory deaths deaths index Constant Constant
tied
1430 90,01 0.31 28,002 0.60 0.60 0.40 0.67
1438 23,817 0.34 8,193 0.58 0.58 0.42 0.72
1444 27,05 0.25 6,763 0.56 0.56 0.44 0.79
1460 70,735 0.18 12,732 0.53 0.53 0.47 0.89
1477 48,083 0.22 10,578 0.52 0.52 0.48 0.92
rural migrant actual
urban pauper deaths of rural urban raw urban
year Ce actual urban percent mortality
deaths migrants population mortality
of the deaths of urban
1430 18,668 46,67 43,34 200 45% 48% 23%
1438 5,933 14,126 9,691 200 12% 41% 7%

1444 5,313 12,076 14,974 200 14% 55% 6%
1460 11,291 24,023 46,712 200 35% 66% 12%
1477 9,764 20,343 27,74 200 24% 58% 10%
Cairo outbreaks that have sparse data, the peak

fatality rate is often the governing quanti-
Just as the outbreak reached its peak in
tative indicator that determines the scale
the nile delta, plague arrived in Cairo of mortality. in the case of the Black
and began spreading among its inhabi- death, we have what is reported to be the
tants. the Black death as a plague peak fatality rate – and it looks, based on
outbreak lasted for a very long time, longer our experiences analyzing 1400s outbreak
than any other outbreak we have analyzed mortality, to be a reliable one. it is much
for the mamluk period. as far as its rate of greater in scale than any fatality peak seen
fatalities was concerned, we have only a in subsequent epidemics: in fact, it is over
smattering of data points to work with. five times as great as the peaks of the ten
Furthermore, for our analysis of plague largest outbreaks that followed in the
80
1350-1517 period – and higher than any description of the lines of coffins
peak in the ottoman period as well, as far running nearly the length of the city
as is known. it translates to 6,900 deaths reinforce this impression of scale (sulūk
in a single day. the actual reported figure 2: 782) there are two other key cues
is 13,800 over two-days, reckoned as a here that are for us more meaningful
sum of the counts of five open-air orato- than these others. the text mentions
ries spread out over all corners of mamluk two mortality-scaling signposts that – in
Cairo (Bab al-nasr, Bab al-Zuwayla, Bab all of our work on the 1400s outbreaks –
al-maḥruq, qittāl al-siba` and mu’minī we have never seen before, and only find
below the Citadel) (al-maqrīzī, Kitāb al- in this special case of the Black death
sulūk, 2: 782). this would appear to be itself. one of these is their reported
the original version of another much more difficulty in actually counting the
common figure, the peak mortality of corpses (sulūk 2: 781). this is some-
20,000 that is most commonly listed by thing not seen in the 1400s – even for
the sources. it seems possible that 20,000 the largest outbreaks. For the 1400s, we
was itself in origin a figure for greater get descriptive narratives that describe
Cairo over a two-day period (al-maqrīzī, how the bureaucrats continued to
Kitāb al-sulūk, 2: 782). From this perspec- compare independent counts against
tive it is our contention that this one another, even at mortality’s peak.
commonly reported rounded figure is in Clearly, for the Black death, circum-
fact entirely reasonable. stances were substantially worse, and the
the high fatality peak reported is open-air oratories became overwhelmed
given weight by other evidence. the as the 1348-9 outbreak reached its peak.
histories written at this time include the second signpost of scale is even
narratives such as the description of the more telling: in the Black death itself,
actual disposal of the bodies and the they reached a point where they simply
digging of mass graves. the mass graves stopped performing the ritual Janāza
were apparently enormous in extent. blessing altogether (sulūk 2: 781). in
the largest of these mass graves sites was none of the other outbreaks – with one

said to stretch in length for about a kilo- lone exception, 1791 Ce – did they
meter, running parallel to a line from reach such a point of abandoning and
the qubbat al-nāṣir in the south (the breaking this fundamental religious rite
mausoleum of the early mamluk sultan (mikhail, 2008, 249-75).7
muhammad al-nāṣir) to the Bāb al- We can take some cues from other
nāṣr in the north, with a width of some scalars as well. the severity of rural
two kilometers – from the eastern walls mortality, rural infrastructure break-
of mamluk Cairo out to the muqattam down, rural disorder, and rural flight is
hills (sulūk 2: 783). such an area, indicated by evidence - evidence anec-
encompassing some 300 hectares, would dotal and descriptive and other
have been more than sufficient for the evidence more quantitative in nature.
burial all the bodies. there were at least the descriptions of this outbreak’s
two such gigantic plots used for the impact on the rural infrastructure
burial of Cairo’s Black death bodies, suggests a severity well beyond the
though that is the extent of our infor- scope witnessed in any of the other
mation about the actual graves. the outbreaks, based on narratives
81
describing the rapid and unprece- demographic picture was composed.

dented turnover in landed estate For the case of asyut in upper egypt,
(iqṭā`āt) hol-dings and the inability of out of some 6,000 who worked the
the rural labor force to gather the yield fields and were counted in a pre-plague
of 1349’s spring harvest. and while, survey (of the mukallafat) – the 1348
accounts that suggest the complete mortality and massive migration left a
decimation of rural labor in some areas bare 116 rural laborers in their place. in
are of course too vague to be taken as this case the number 116 is probably a
data, these impressions also speak of real statistic, as extreme as it sounds on
severity never witnessed before or since. the face of it, with 6,000 having been
Furthermore, when it comes to quan- something of an estimate. assuming
tification, rural labor losses are specifi- then that this oratory count at peak is
cally addressed at one point, and – in accurate, we used this figure in
the context of rural depopulation’s conjunction with the rest of the limited
spatial form of punctuated equilibrium data available for the Black death in
discussed above – the available Cairo. to calculate the total number of
numbers for rural mortality are indeed fatalities, we used our new method for
unprecedented. With this pattern in inclusion of rural migration above,
mind, and with the more anecdotal along with the Keeling and gilligan
suggestion that one rural center, plague model. We also developed a sir
Bilbays in the eastern delta, was said to model for pneumonic plague that fits
be completely emptied by plague, the the reported symptoms in Cairo (dols,
mortality and flight of asyut’s rural Black death, 212-16). We added our
labor force – which approached some- own differential equations to those of
thing close to 100% – looks to be reli- Keeling and gilligan, and the overall
able on one end at least – and should be effect on the regression of the data was
born in mind as part of the hit-and- to make this peak mortality into a more
miss pattern of which the larger rural isolated event in its magnitude.
tab. 3 the Black death of 1348 Ce in Cairo

month Fatality rate Fatality rate
year Ce timeline references
(gregorian proleptic) (data) (derived)
suluk 2: 780,
september 1348 0 plague begins
dols, 212
early october 1348 300 300 suluk 2: 780
suluk 2: 780-96
late october 1348 1000 1000
dols, 212-16
suluk 2: 797-96
early december 1348 6900 6900 peak
dols, 212-16
(abatement
early January 1348 300
derived)
suluk 2: 797-96
early February 1348 0 plague ends
dols, 212-16
82
Fig. 6 the daily Fatalities of the Black death in Cairo
the result of our calculations, as are we stuck with a generalization?

graphed above, was a cumulative raw there is more than one way at getting at
mortality for the Black death of this question. one strategy that can
(201,050) deaths, as counted at the five work is supplement our basic mortality
major oratories of mamluk Cairo. figures with the use of other data, in this
mamluk Cairo refers to a specific area case the record of deaths – the obituary
within the larger surrounding of greater summary – at the end of each year’s
Cairo (raymond, 1984; garcin, 2000; record in medieval arab chronicles.
louiseau, 2011; Borsch and sabraa, plague outbreaks appear as spikes in the
2016). mamluk Cairo encompassed data formed by adding up the number
some 500 hectares (5 km²) and – with of deaths recorded at the end of each

an assumed population density of year’s narrative. depending on factors as
400 persons per hectare (Borsch and yet to be fully determined, some chroni-
sabraa, 2016, 129-34) – had a popula- clers leave via their year’s-end summary
tion of some 200,000 in the mamluk of deaths a solid trail of quantifiable
period, whereas greater Cairo was prob- plague mortalities, while others do not.
ably closer to 300,000 in population. in We have found though that even in the
terms of rural migration, the estimated cases where the fit to existing data is
number of deaths of rural migrants for poor, these summaries do nevertheless
the Black death is 96,815, which leaves leave behind the quantitative record of
Cairo with an actual loss of 104,235 and the occurrence of outbreaks, though not
a mortality for mamluk Cairo of 52%. the scale. additional information about
frequency can still be gleaned from such
obituary entries records. Furthermore, other indexes of
yet if Cairo lost about half of its total mortality can be gleaned from these
population egypt in the Black death, unlikely quantitative instruments as
then what of the total losses for egypt? well. the intense famines of the late
83
1400s, for example, appear in sharp the spike in obituary entries for the
relief when quantified from these pages, famine of 1486-7, appears in the graph
and the worst of these, the large-scale below where its rise above mean mortal-
famines of the latter 1400s, are the equal ity (more than four times the mean
of the large-scale plague outbreaks that mortality of the 1400s) is roughly equal
occurred at the end of the mamluk era. in scale to the 1492 plague outbreak.
Fig. 7 plague and Famine in obituary records
applying these methods to the mortal- damascus

ity of the Black death, we able to supple-
moving at a rapid pace, the Black
ment the obituary pages of the year-by-
death traveled by water and land –
year chronicles with the more numerous
assailing damascus and the other major

death data found in biographical diction-
aries. one of these yielded some rather population centers in syria before the
useful quantitative results for the general outbreak in alexandria even reached its
mortality – i.e. the mortality of middle peak (Varlik, 2015, 98-9). ibn Baṭūṭa
east region as a whole – of the Black described some details of the outbreak
death. in this case, from a sampling of there, noting that it began at the very
learned scholars from Baghdad who were end of July (1348 Ce) or the very begin-
scattered around egypt and the levant, ning of august and describing a despe-
we get what appears to be a fairly reaso- rate mass procession of the populace
nable global mortality for the Black marching, supplicating themselves
death in the middle east (egypt, syria, before god and begging for mercy (ibn
and modern-day Jordan, israel, palestine, Baṭūṭa, Book of travels, 325-6). as he
iraq). as one can see in the graph below, describes it, Christians marched in the
from this biographical dictionary we esti- throng along with the muslims (the
mate an approximate loss of 42% for the Christians holding aloft the gospel) as
middle east as a region. did the numerous members of the
84
Fig. 8 the obituary record for 1300s Baghdad scholars

(derived from annual death notices, wafayāt)
source: taqī al-dīn abī al-àlī muḥammad bin rafī` al-salāmī (d. 774/1373), tārīkh ‘ulamā’ Baghdād al-musamma muntkhab
al-mukhtār, ed. Bashār ‛iwār abī al-‛alī 1982, vols. i and ii
Jewish community (they held up the similar to that in egypt (ibn Kathīr, al-
Ḥajar al-àsqalānī, dhayl al-mā`ūn,

torah) as the co-religionists, zealous Bidāya wa- ‘l-nihāya, 16: 341-7; ibn
with sincere – if perhaps somewhat tran-
sient – piety, marched to the Bāb al- 379-85; ibn Battuta, Book of travels).
sharq, the eastern gate, where (ibn the numbers for damascus are more
Baṭūṭa notes in context) it was said by detailed that those for Cairo or alexan-
the muslims that one of their prophets dria, and the regressed data as shown
(not muhammad, but rather ìsā’ al- below yields a mortality slightly below
masīḥ, Jesus Christ) would return, 40,000. given that damascus likely
pre-plague population did not exceed

descending to the white minaret there at
the end of times – to do battle with the 60,000 (the capacity of the walled city
islamic version of the antichrist (the at 400 per hectare is about 55,000, see
one-eyed al-massīḥ al-dajjāl) it is for map below), a loss of 36,124 (with
certain that many of those in the proces- Crude death rate subtracted from the
sion thought the end of times were cumulative below) inhabitants and the
already at hand – and armageddon’s existence of the same two counting
imminence was no doubt also an excep- agencies (the Bureau of inheritance and
tionally powerful incentive for rural the open-air oratories) suggests that, as
flight as well. with Cairo, there was a substantial rural
the death tolls here are primarily component of rural flight in the damas-
mented by data from ibn Ḥajar al-

those reported by ibn Kathīr, supple- cus death toll.
àsqalānī and the structure of adminis- aleppo

tration for counting and disposing of a report from ibn habib indicates the
plague-victim bodies was functionally scale of damascus was twice that of
85
tab. 4 the Black death in damascus

Cumulative
date (1348 Ce) daily Fatalities
deaths
24-apr 0 0
9-may 50 342
07-juin 100 3,162
12-juil 200 8,349
5-aug 300 15,384
04-sept 300 20,554
01-oct 1200 28,125
17-oct 150 35,338
01-nov 0 38,025
Fig. 9 map of medieval damascus
Walled City of damascus Close-up on the umayyad mosque

aleppo. (“‫بلحب ىتوملا ةدع تغلبو‬
‫ وحن ىلإ موي يف‬500، ‫نم رثكأ قشمدبو‬

mortality of 12,264 and a total of 11,745
‫ )”رفن فلأ‬this would at least give us a

plague victims (ibn Battuta, Book of
travels).
sense that losses in aleppo were severe.
al-maqrīzī notes that 500 per day were mecca and arabia
dying, ostensibly at the peak (al- a single quantitative indicator can be
maqrīzī, Kitāb al-sulūk, 2: 775). assu- very useful. For the Black death in
ming a trajectory of mortality somewhat mecca, we have a data point for the
similar in duration to damascus, the peak fatality rate during the hajj of 749
cumulative mortality for aleppo is ah – one that fits in with indications
approximately 18,400 raw fatalities and we have for the size of the hajj. that
17,480 plague victims. there was regularly something on the
Ḥumṣ
order of 5,000 pilgrims, the number
For Ḥumṣ, a fatality rate peak of

rising to over twice for heavier years, is
borne out by scaling losses from a peak
330 deaths per day allows for a cumulative death rate of 55 on one day during the
86
hajj (ibn habib, 181a-40). a mortality the analysis of 1400s Ce outbreaks given
of some 1,500 pilgrims, with a lower us some new tools by which we can view
participation rate on the order of 2,500 the actual methods employed long ago
to 3,000 and mortality equal to or above to conduct the counting of the dead.
50% is conceivable. Knowing how that awful task was
conducted, we were able to discern the
very likely trajectories of the curves for
CONCLUSIONS daily fatality rates as suffered by Cairo,
this study has made a fresh attempt to alexandria, damascus, aleppo, gaza,
quantify Black death mortality for the and get some sense of things in the hejaz
middle east by employing new meth- during this plague outbreak. the results
ods, testing out new ideas, and grappling for the cumulative absolute and relative
with new theories. these methods, along mortality figures are presented in the
with the use of supporting evidence from graph below.
Fig. 10 the Black death in the middle east: summary of results

We have also examined a new theory enormous demographic losses borne by
that allows us to account for the influx of medieval islamic societies during the
potentially large number of rural inhabi- Black death and the long series of recur-
tants, sick and dying with plague, who rent plague outbreaks, which we approxi-
swell the resulting figures for plague mated at some 150 for the course of the
mortality in such a way as to make results second plague pandemic in egypt (1348 –
look falsely fantastic – rather than proba- 1844 Ce).
ble and realistic. By such accounting tech- so much remains unfinished for histori-
niques, and using other tools at our ans interested in plague mortality for the
disposal, such as – but by no means islamic middle east. From our interdisci-
limited to – quantification from annual plinary perspective of water and mortality,
obituary summaries at year’s end in the there is the business of causation referred to
medieval arab chronicles and biographical in the introduction, the question of geog-
dictionaries – we come hopefully a step raphy for egypt, the application of the
closer to a more confident approach to the concept of the trophic cascade and what
87
this entails in its complexity: the interac- whether or not the second and third
tion between human and environment in pandemics can be said to have been
the plausible and complex chain of causa- continuous – or intersecting – in the
tion that involves everything from the fluc- middle east, as iraq’s second plague
tuations in the annual indian ocean pandemic continued to strike through to
monsoon to the annual nile flood’s timing the end of the 1840s, and the third plague
and flood curve trajectory, and from there pandemic began only a few years later, in
to the history of rural village communities 1855).
and the maintenance of the irrigation the hejaz has yielded more figures that
infrastructure, leading via collective impact we have as of yet been unable to incorpo-
to the reproductive fate of the small rate, and we looked at some information
rodents on the ground, their population from further east, gleaning a reported
growth hinging upon the arrival of green Black death mortality of approximately
vegetation – which can then lead back to 200,000 for the city of samarqand. look-
the explosive emergence of plague in the ing back again at the more familiar terrain
rat populations of urban centers. there is of egypt, there is much to be discovered
certainly more work to be done on this when excavations of a grave is completed,
question of the rural infected ratio as a a mass grave at Cairo – as reported in the
factor in the quantification of overall medieval arabic texts – dating to the
mortality. there are many more textual Black death, holding promise for discov-
sources to mine for information, for the eries like those of the recent mass-graves
Black death as well as the many other in london. these findings near and far
outbreaks. should further inform our estimates of the
at the final stage of work here, we dimensions of this terrible tragedy that in
began looking further afield as we all probability outdid all the others. the
searched for more sources, studying some second plague pandemic in egypt (1348-
figures for the Black death in iraq, where 1844) and in the rest of the islamic
the geography might have been similarly middle east must have had an enormous
lethal to the inhabitants, if geographical impact, not just demographically, but so

specificity of this nature turns out to many other ways as well, and further
apply. though we are uncertain as to the quantification of the scope of mortality,
mortality for the Black death in Bagh- bolstered by interdisciplinary studies of
dad, the data we have for Baghdad and the environment and its interaction,
iraq in the later stages of the second back-and-forth, with humanity, will aid
plague pandemic suggest that the recur- us in the long process of analyzing chains
rent outbreaks there were every bit as of causation and the long-term impact of
frequent and severe as the ones in egypt. these demographic losses on the societies
notably as well, the second plague that made up the pre-modern middle
pandemic seems to have lasted to the east.
mid-nineteenth century in iraq, as it did stuart BorsCh
in egypt, with a well-documented assumption College
outbreak in 1830-31 that may have tarek saBraa
claimed as many as 100,000 lives for dantean anomaly project
Baghdad alone (issawi, 1988, 103-4). and ghent university
(this though raises a question about
88
NOTES
1. For a perspective on the economic impact of “please note: we used independent witnesses,
the Black death and second plague pandemic, four of them, for each count of the bodies – and
see Borsch (2014, 126-8). we came out to do serious business, no finger
2. image: general research division, the new counting, bringing our desks, pens and paper and
york public library. (1809-1828), alexandrie lined up by the Bab al-nasr (Cairo’s principal
[alexandria]. plan général des deux ports, de la oratory for body counts in 1460 Ce) to do our
ville moderne, et de la ville des arabes work. please, accept the accuracy of these
(http://digitalcollections.nypl.org/items/510d47 numbers.” dols’ response to this plea from the
e0-219b-a3d9-e040-e00a18064a99). scholarly past seems, on balance, unfair and cyni-
cal rather than judicious and skeptical (dols,
3. We constructed most of these rules from our
1981, 409-11).
experiences analyzing the records for nile flood
heights, the late June minima, the late september 5. the though substantial inflation began in
maxima, and the other figures given for river october of 1415, the famine-level price increases
height that lay between the two. the egyptian (for which the arabic term ghilā’ can be used)
historians and writers who were inclined to make weren’t witnessed until november of 1415. the
any effort at all with plague figures (and our nile receded, and as crowds swarmed and pressed
source for both of these mortality figures, al- at the government supplies and baking ovens
maqrīzī, was certainly a leader among them) had inside Cairo, so much so that troops had to be
a marked tendency to work on nile flood quan- called out to defend the public bakeries in late
tification as well – and the quantification of January of 1416. By February, growing numbers
water is to be found with much greater frequency of starving peasants began to show up at Bulaq,
in these texts than the quantification of mortal- the grain-transport depot and port on the nile, to
ity, at least for the fourteenth and fifteenth the north-west of the walled mamluk city. their
century – the late mamluk period. (this general desperate numbers swelled to the tens of thou-
observation does not apply to the ottoman era in sands (al-maqrīzī, Kitāb al-sulūk, 4: 318-20).
egypt, and its plague mortalities, where, for a 6. roosen, Joris, 2016, discussion Contributions
number of good reasons, nile flood quantifica- from a european historian, Workshop on envi-
tion become far more sporadic) ronmental disasters in the mamluk sultanate of
4. dols, in his work on the 1430 Ce and 1460 egypt and syria, annemarie schimmel Kolleg of
Ce outbreaks, betrays a constant hesitancy that Bonn university.
seems to us less his own inability to work with 7. as alan mikhail (2008) notes of the 1791

numbers than a product of the standard barrage plague outbreak, “so great a number of the
from non-quantifying senior historians. his read soldiers and marines stationed in old Cairo,
of ibn taghribirdi’s figures looks wholly unfair giza, and Būlāq died that mass graves were dug
in retrospect. one can read this in dols pro- into which their corpses were thrown without
forma dismissal of ibn taghribirdi’s efforts, any ceremony or final rites. For those not
efforts that seem intentionally directed toward a connected to the military, their funerals also had
skeptical scholar in the distant future, efforts to be done en-masse, with prayers being said for
which involved busy activity around flea-ridden up to five people at one time. indeed, the appara-
corpses, efforts from which he may well have tuses charged with the manage- mint of death
contracted the plague. (he survived – luckily for were stretched to their limits during this spring as
historians.) (ibn taghribirdi, nujum 16: 141) is the demand for undertakers (al-hawānīt) and
careful to point to factors that should make his corpse washers (al-mughassilīn) far exceeded
quantitative figures acceptable to anyone reading their available numbers.”
his text, saying, as a colloquial paraphrase:
89
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SUMMARY
the awful dimensions of the Black death’s (2000) plague model to the recorded death
mortality in europe has long been examined tolls, which we tested for 1400s Cairo, our
and estimates of its death toll there have main hope for advancing the field rests upon
risen in the last two decades of scholarship. a new method we introduce here, one that
While there is much left to discover, the uses the quintessentially islamic character of
mortality of the Black death in other areas middle eastern civic institutions (institu-
of the world (the near east, the Far east, tions that counted plague deaths) to quantify
south asia, and africa) remains, in relative a phenomenon wholly untouched by scho-
terms, almost unexamined. While a number lars (mathematically at least): the flight of
of scholars have made exemplary contribu- desperate rural refugees – i.e. those countless
tions to our understanding of the mortality many – the rural majority - who fled the
of the second plague pandemic in the plague, Black death especially, only to die of
middle east (1347-1844 Ce), the untimely it, almost always penniless, anonymous, and
death of the pioneering michael dols utterly alone, in middle eastern cities that
(1977) was in many ways both the first and most of them had never seen before. if this
the last word on the subject of Black death first attempt shows promise, the hope is that
mortality in the middle east. we may be better equipped to understand
this study hopes to get the ball rolling again the seemingly inexplicable – the astronomi-
by approaching the question of mortality with cally high urban death tolls that have made
some new tools. starting with the basis of quantification of plague mortality for the
applying the fascinating Keeling and gilligan middle east so difficult.
RÉSUMÉ
deux décennies de travaux sur la peste noire du Caire dans les années 1400, nous
en europe et sur la mortalité effrayante qu’elle espérons progresser sur cette question en
a causée ont conduit à une ré-évaluation très introduisant une nouvelle méthode qui
notable du nombre de victimes. s’il y reste s’appuie sur le caractère typiquement
encore beaucoup à découvrir, la mortalité due islamique des institutions civiques du
à la peste noire dans d’autres régions du moyen-orient (institutions qui ont
monde (proche-orient, extrême-orient, asie décompté les morts par peste) pour quanti-

du sud et afrique) est, elle, relativement peu fier un phénomène jamais abordé jusqu'à
étudiée. Bien que nombre de chercheurs aient présent (au moins mathématiquement) :
apporté des contributions significatives à celui de la nuée de réfugiés désespérés -
notre compréhension de la mortalité au cours innombrables et en majorité ruraux- qui,
de la seconde pandémie de peste au moyen- fuyant la peste noire, venaient mourir,
orient (1347-1844 BC), la mort prématurée souvent sans le sou, anonymes et totale-
de michael dols (1977) a fait de ses travaux, à ment seuls, dans les villes du moyen-
la fois les pionniers et les derniers sur la orient que la plupart d'entre eux n’avaient
mortalité durant la peste noire au moyen- jamais vues auparavant.
orient. si cette première tentative tient ses
Cette étude souhaite relancer ces promesses, nous espérons être mieux à
recherches en abordant la question de la même de comprendre ce qui semble inexpli-
mortalité avec de nouveaux outils. partant cable : le nombre astronomique de morts en
de l’intéressant modèle peste de Keeling et milieu urbain, qui a rendu toute quantifica-
gilligan (2000) que nous appliquons au tion de la mortalité par peste au moyen-
nombre de morts enregistrés, modèle que orient si difficile.
nous avons expérimenté en analysant le cas
93

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Refugees of the Black Death: Quantifying rural migration

for plague and other environmental disasters

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annales de démographie historique 2017 n°2 p. 63 à 93

REFUGEES OF THE BLACK DEATH: QUANTIFYING

INTRODUCTION, METHODS, AND counting out the demography itself.

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stuart BorsCh and tareK saBraa

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reFugees oF the BlaCK death: quantiFying rural migration

tab. 1 Frequency of plague outbreaks (1348-1844 Ce)

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stuart BorsCh and tareK saBraa

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reFugees oF the BlaCK death: quantiFying rural migration

THE BLACK DEATH plague to mesopotamia and iran, where

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stuart BorsCh and tareK saBraa

“the european merchants who have template, an informational infrastruc-

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reFugees oF the BlaCK death: quantiFying rural migration

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stuart BorsCh and tareK saBraa

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reFugees oF the BlaCK death: quantiFying rural migration

22,000 for gaza is unlikely as an mortality of (4,652), displayed via graph

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stuart BorsCh and tareK saBraa

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reFugees oF the BlaCK death: quantiFying rural migration

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stuart BorsCh and tareK saBraa

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inbāʾ al-ghumr, 7: 185-205; sabra,

2000, 155-8, ibn iyās, Badāʾiʿ al-zuhūr,

ẓāhira, 14: 41).

reFugees oF the BlaCK death: quantiFying rural migration

Fig. 4 plague and Famine daily Fatalities (1415-1416 Ce)

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stuart BorsCh and tareK saBraa

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reFugees oF the BlaCK death: quantiFying rural migration

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stuart BorsCh and tareK saBraa

itself as well. the psychological impact of 70% of urban population

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reFugees oF the BlaCK death: quantiFying rural migration

if there is a reported has a raw cumu- Cp2/1= constant ratio of urban

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stuart BorsCh and tareK saBraa

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Cairo outbreaks that have sparse data, the peak

reFugees oF the BlaCK death: quantiFying rural migration

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stuart BorsCh and tareK saBraa

describing the rapid and unprece- demographic picture was composed.

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reFugees oF the BlaCK death: quantiFying rural migration

Fig. 6 the daily Fatalities of the Black death in Cairo

the result of our calculations, as are we stuck with a generalization?